So every year I do a mock draft after the season ends for all the teams that have been eliminated. Last year it got a little weird as the lottery means all of this will change in two months anyway. I decided to keep up the practice though as it still allows me good reasons to research a player as well as point out possible connections and recent practices. It goes without saying there is no intel this mock is just based on years of following team approaches. For those who have not checked out my work before, I have gotten two picks right in this mock: Nick Madrigal to the White Sox in 2018 and Andrew Vaughan to the White Sox in 2019.
Now I do this for fun for free, I am a dyslexic and there are likely errors and word replacements below. I don’t have an editor so it's just me and software. So be a little kind and understanding that you are getting free content when outside of MLB and Prospects Live all other draft content is behind paywalls.
Thank you to everyone who reads and shares and now into the mock. And keep your eyes peeled for updates after each playoff round ends.
1 Oakland Athletics - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Sleeper JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
The last two years Oakland has gone with more polished college performers with their first-round pick. There is no slam dunk at the top of the draft like a year ago, but there is plenty of time for such a player to emerge. The depth though feels just as good as a year ago might be slightly better. While teams have traditionally avoided first baseman early that trend has changed along with just how good Kurtz has been as a hitter. Yes, the home environment is incredibly friendly, and yes Wake’s best hitter in the majors is Stuart Fairchild ever. Yet when you look for indicators like BABIP, walk-to strikeout, and strikeout rates Kurtz excels. It doesn’t hurt that the comp on him is Matt Olson, but it's more that every hit-based tool looks 60 or 70. I wish we had more summer data or just batted ball data in general, but Kurtz looks like a complete safe-moving hitter who should be a middle-of-the-order performer and multi-time All-Star. Wetherholt is another top-level performer, who is an up-the-middle talent if Oakland did not want to go with a guy who plays on the edges.
2 Kansas City Royals - Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep Committed to LSU
Sleeper Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
The Royals have gone more prep with their recent high picks, and Griffin is arguably the player with the most upside in this draft. He reclassified and will only be 17.5 on draft day. He is a big kid with elite athleticism. He is a legit five-tool player, who has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the league. He posts high-end exit velocity while having a very clean and easy swing. He is a two-way player and a legit pitching prospect but the upside as a center fielder is too good to consider him as a pitcher. He might be closer to a four-tool guy with slight contact concerns but he is an absolute toolshed and one of the youngest players in the class. Caminita is the nephew of Ken Caminita and one of the three potential first-round prep players who reclassified for the 2024 draft. He could be an under-slot high-ceiling prep target for the Royals.
3 Colorado Rockies Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
The Rockies have gone with a college pitcher with their top pick the last two years. Both of those picks were in the top 10. Last year they went very pitcher-heavy in general. Yet none of that should stop them from considering Burns who is the top pitcher in this class, who is not at one of the best pitcher factories in college baseball. Wake Forest has a better pitching lab than most teams. So for a team like the Rockies who have struggled to develop pitchers, taking someone from Wake should be viewed as a bonus. Burns has some things to work on including his third pitch and his command which seemed to waiver as the season went on. Still, the chance at an 80-grade fastball and a 70-grade slider should allow him to be successful even with an average third pitch. Colorado loves power and Caglianone as a power pitcher and power bat might appeal to the Rockies.
4 Chicago White Sox Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
Sleeper Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
White Sox fans calm down, I know you are all thinking about Nick Madrigal but Bazzana is a very different hitter. The Australian hitter might end up the top pick in this class. He has above-average to plus tools across the board. While he has played second at Oregon many think he could stick at shortstop due to his plus athleticism. He has one of the best hit tools in the entire class, using the whole field and making pitchers pay for mistakes. He walked at a high rate, rarely chased, while also hitting for power. His power is likely 55 grade, but every team I watch more of Bazzana I keep thinking that I might be underestimating the ceiling because the present is so good. He should be an on-base monster who should post several 20/20 seasons down the road. If the White Sox want pitching, Brecht has a lot in common with Burns but with a higher ceiling and a lot more risk.
5 St. Louis Cardinals JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
Sleeper PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
The Cardinals are in an interesting spot, if they stay here, to just wait and see who is still on the board. Wetherholt is just too good to not take. If one wanted to have him going to any team on this list I would say sure. Everything I said about Bazzana holds true here in terms of using the whole field, a chance for above-average to plus power, as well as a strong eye at the plate. I tend to lean towards Wetherholt myself as he is nearly a year younger while Oregon State has had a stronger history of player success. He hit .449 at just about the hardest level there is in college baseball. He is not quite the athlete Bazzana is and is likely to have less positional value but the bat alone would have made him the number four-rated player in last year's class which was an all-timer. Morlando has the type of swing, approach, and power the Cardinals tend to like and always do well developing.
6. Los Angeles Angels Vance Honeycutt, OF, UNC
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Some will have Vance Honeycutt at the top of the board in this class. I will admit after his freshman year I assumed he would be a no-doubt top player in this class. Yet when I watched UNC a year ago it was Mac Horvath I kept getting drawn to. Now Honeycutt is a better prospect and my eye tends to drift to the draft-eligible players, but I just expected more from Honeycutt. He did cut back on his strikeout rate which was the biggest knock on him entering the year, but the fact his power also dropped was a concern. He is a no-doubt center fielder and should be plus there with his speed and defense. Honeycutt is a late bloomer, if you find his perfect game profile he was smaller, lighter, and didn’t hit the ball that hard. There is a part of him that is still figuring out how to use his size and skills. His athleticism is so clear, and his production has been very good, when you look at him through the lens of late growth the arrow on him is up. Honeycutt will be in the discussion for the top overall pick. Yes, I had to make my sleeper the college Ohtani, it was too much fun not to.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Sleeper PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
Yes, I know the Mets had the seventh-worst record, but unless they end up in the top six due to the lottery they will drop to pick 17 due to being over the luxury tax thresholds. The new draft rules are why the Nationals and Mets fall. Brody Brecht is the end of the elite college player tier for me. The top six players all have the potential to be stars, some of the best players at their position. Brecht is skipping football this fall, after being a wide receiver for Iowa his first two years. He is that good of an athlete. His stuff is the best of any pitcher in this class. His fastball touches 101, his slider is a potential 70-grade pitch. He is also one of the rawest pitchers I have seen in terms of his level of dominant stuff. His command is a mess, and there is massive risk here. The athleticism and upper-tier potential on his fastball/slider means that if he ends up on the right team that is focused on traits and can work with him he could end up being a legit GUY. His ceiling is as high as any pitcher I have seen but the risk is also the highest I have seen with a top-ten college arm.
8. Cleveland Guardians Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern
Sleeper Caleb Bonemer, 3B, Okemos HS (MI) Committed to UVA
This may not be the name most Guardians fans want. I am sure a power hitter like Tommy White is the name you are hoping to read, and they could go prep here after going prep-heavy in 2023. Yet Mike Sirota does feel like the perfect Guardians prospect. He is a cold-weather hitter, has plus athleticism, dominated the Cape, Plays up the middle, has the best swinging-strike data in college baseball, and is young for his class not turning 21 until June. He plays at Northeastern which has more history with Cleveland than any other organization. The current coach Mike Glavine was a Guardians pick, general manager candidate Luke Carlin came from there, as did recently traded pitcher Aaron Civale. Sirota will likely see his stock dip this year just due to him facing lesser competition. The lack of chances to prove oneself always leads to slides. This is a mistake as going back to his prep days Sirota was one of the best athletes in his class. He is a four-tool player with his power still being a likely above-average tool. He feels safer than Honeycutt but with a lower ceiling. Not sure he is a lock to Cleveland, but his being right-handed rather than left-handed is the only factor not in his favor in terms of the last decade of Guardians draft trends. Bonemer is a young for-the-class, cold-weather shortstop, who shined a bunch over the summer and has some power potential in his frame.
9. Detroit Tigers PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Detroit is a big beneficiary of the new draft rules moving from 11 to 9 and getting a large chunk of extra pool money for their time. While this is a team with a lot of young talent, we saw them lean for high-ceiling prep talent last year over the nearer college help. Morlando might have the best hit and power tools in the prep class. He has it all launch angle, bat speed, approach, eye at the plate, exit velocities. He hits the ball everywhere and hits it hard. One could make a case for him being the top prep hitter in this class. He could fall anywhere in the top 10. In my reviews as a prep hitter, he is the most polished in terms of whole-field approach, ball-to-bat skills, and eye at the plate since Dylan Crews. I am not saying he is Crews, just that he is that advanced at this stage in his career. He is more than likely a corner outfielder and will be 19 on draft so those are the only concerns the bat feels like one that should be safer than the typical prep hitter with all the same ceiling. Caglianone is interesting but both the hitter and pitcher profiles have questions that push him down a bit, but the two-way potential is enough to see a team start to get interested in the back half of the top ten.
10. Washington Nationals Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Sleeper Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
The National's tendency over the last decade has been to take sliding talent regardless of concerns or red flags. They often go for big performers and big names. There are no red flags on Caglianone but there are some legit concerns to the point one could argue that 10th overall is not a slide. He has monstrous power both as a hitter and as a pitcher. He is up to 99 on the mound and hit 33 home runs as a sophomore. He is a massive human at 6’5” and 245 pounds. He didn’t pitch as a freshman due to TJ surgery so while he had big command issues in 2023 there is a chance he will rebound a full year removed from surgery. The command though is a big concern and has made many wonder if he can stay on the mound long-term or if he will be more of a reliever going forward. I lean toward reliever but think he can be a very good one. His fastball-slider combo should be deadly. There are concerns if he can play in the outfield or if he will be a first-base-only prospect. I again lean towards him working in the outfield. Caglianone doesn’t sell out for power but he does expand his zone more than is ideal. For as celebrated, and for good reason, a player that Caglianone is he needs just general refinement across his skill set. He has legit two-way potential, but might not occur if the bat outdistances the pitch skills too much. Cozart is a legit defender with strong pop who should be in play in the 5-15 range.
11. Boston Red Sox Charlie Condon, 1B/OF, Georgia
Sleeper Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Okay, so we have no clue who will be in charge and who they might take. This makes Boston pick a situation where it is a complete guess. I think the new manager won’t be allowed to rebuild and burn it all down. There will be some expectation of attempting to compete which might encourage them to go with a college bat. One because they can help sooner and two they can get to the upper minors sooner making them a better trade asset. I also talked with a few people who insisted that Condon is a top-ten talent, and he will be on my board as well. I think one of the biggest questions is how Condon was not able to make it on the field as a freshman and had to redshirt at Georgia. Because what he did as a freshman is practically unheard of. He hit for power, 25 home runs, got on base, and had a strikeout percentage under 20. Those are not things that happen in the SEC. His size and bat speed might give him the best power potential in this college class. He is a better athlete than one would think for his build but is still a fringy defensive outfielder. He might start there then move to first as he fills out even more. The arm is there for the outfield but his speed being 40 grade means he can’t afford to lose a step. The bat is the calling card and specifically big-time power. It will get him drafted early especially if he can somehow top his numbers from last year. Is this where I point out the Georgia draft regression curse we have seen mostly with pitchers but has been a thing for the last half a decade? Smith is the top college arm and solidly the third-rated one on most boards if Boston wanted to go with a pitcher and not a belly itcher.
12 San Francisco Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas AM
Sleeper Noah Franco, RHP/1B, IMG Academy Not Committed
Two straight years with two-way players, that most of us don’t expect to stay two-way. I had to put another two-way talent here. It is not all for the lols as Montgomery slots into this range and his overall athleticism also slots into what we have seen the Giants go for. Montgomery might be a better two-way player than Caglianone. He is a better overall athlete. I think Montgomery is the more interesting hitter long term and Caglianone is the more interesting pitcher. But now that I have stated that, I expect the opposite. Montgomery hits the upper 90s but command is an issue, and one can’t help but think the bat will advance at such a rate that his pitching will fall by the wayside. He is a switch hitter with easy, explosive power. He does have some swing-and-miss concerns but did show improvements as a sophomore. Montgomery could have been a first-rounder out of high school. With the very deep college class, Montgomery needs to build on his success from last year to ensure he goes in the top half of the first round. Franco is the third of the big three prep players who reclassified for this year's class. He is another interesting two-way player in this class, let's call it the Ohtani effect.
13 Cincinnati Reds Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Sleeper Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
The Reds had a fantastic season which saw a lot of their talent hit the big leagues, where they mostly hit. Their prospect pool has been dominated by hitting prospects. While you never draft for need when value is pretty even it makes sense to consider a position of less depth. Hagen Smith is the third-rated pitcher in this class right now. The word that you will see in every report on Hagen Smith is deceptive. While he has some stereotypical traits of a lefty he also throws low to mid 90s and misses a ton of bats. He has been a day-one starter in the SEC and increased his strikeout per nine from 10.5 to 13.7 last year. He has a strong pitch mix highlighted by his fastball, slider, and change. His slider was his go-to pitch and had his highest swing-and-miss percentage a year ago. The concern here is command and control. One can help but wonder if his stuff moves so much he has trouble controlling it. His walks per nine have been over five in college. More and more we see the important value of traits more than performance, and teams looking for players they can work with to improve. Smith, being a lefty who misses bats at an elite rate, will be in top 10 contention this year and could go a lot higher if his command improves. Cozart is arguably the top player left on the board, and as a catcher, he has added value.
14 San Diego Padres Caleb Bonemer, 3B, Okemos HS (MI) Committed to UVA
Sleeper Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
The Padres recent approach has been all about ceiling. When you look at Dillon Head, Dylan Lesko, and Robby Snelling there is no reason to change this approach one would think. With the depth of the college crop, there are several very interesting prep players on the board. Would they want to go with the potential two-way talents? Maybe one of the players who reclassified? Bloodlines? The sleeper is Cam Caminiti who is the nephew of former Padres great Ken who is all three. Most teams do tend to avoid the added pressure of adding a relative of a former player. In addition, honestly, Bonemer could go in the top ten and would be the consensus top prep player on the board. The Michigan product features plus speed and power with a legitimate chance to stick at shortstop. Players with his profile of speed, power, and up-the-middle ability always rise on draft day. Bonemer has already been rising over the past year as much as any player in this class. I expect him to end up higher than this come next July.
15 New York Yankees Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
Sleeper Tommy White, 1B, LSU
The New Yankees have been one of the more conservative teams when it comes to the draft over the years. While this draft does set up with several interesting college players to choose from, Tommy White being right there stands out. Despite that a year ago they went with a high-ceiling prep player with bloodlines. It does go against type, for a team that drafted and signed 3 prep players in 2023 and 0 in 2022. There is a temptation to go with White, as the Yankees have chased power hitters in the draft over recent years with Lombard Jr., Jones, and Wells all coming to mind as hitters with potential plus power. Yet the bloodlines, ceiling, and general youth of Caminiti could have him going much higher in this draft. While he has been a two-way guy, almost everyone thinks his future is as a starter. He might have just turned 17 in August, but he feels advanced for his age with three pitches and the ability to command them all. The change needs the most work, but his feel for pitching stands out along with his crossfire delivery, and easy repeatable mechanics.
16 Chicago Cubs Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
Sleeper Tommy White, 1B, LSU
What did the Cubs do in 2023? They waited and took the sliding hitter, who had no business making it to them with Matt Shaw. What do they get to do in this mock take the sliding hitter who has no business making it to them in Jacob Cozart. College catchers typically rise in the draft for two reasons. Teams always need catching, basic supply and demand. The second part is that college catchers are a much safer bet as prep catchers typically have a lower success rate than prep pitchers. It goes from such a risk to more of a certainty, though far from certain, that teams don’t let catchers get by them. We did see Daniel Susac slide recently though so it can happen. Cozart is a defense-first catcher, who can also hit from an NC State program that recently produced Patrick Bailey. The ACC in general has felt like the breadbasket of college catchers over the last decade thanks in large part to Louisville but NC State is doing their part. Cozart looks the part of a future-plus defender who should be a league-average bat. There is not a plus offense trait outside of his eye at the plate. There is so much value in being about a league average catcher offensively there were just 13 a year ago with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. Only nine of those catchers offered average defense as well, there is so much value in his profile. He feels like one of the safer picks in this draft because barring injury he should be no worse than a backup due to his defensive skills.
17 New York Mets Seaver King, 2B, Wake Forest
Sleeper Tommy White, 1B, LSU
David Stearns time with the Brewers was almost entirely college player after college player. They went with safer profiles early and rook more risk on talent or tools later in the draft. This makes sense as there are always a ton of high-ceiling players that make it to college but finding safer players with certain traits gets harder as the draft goes. They went for up-the-middle, athletes, with high contact rates. King might not be the biggest name after playing at D2 Wingate for the last two years but his athlete profile has many excited. His performance on the Cape also helped to allay fears about his performance against better competition. King hits the ball very hard, and if he successfully makes the transition this year while keeping his strikeout rate low he might well be off the board with this pick. There is some Matt Shaw upside in terms of an offensive second baseman with power and strong Cape performance. King is a very late bloomer and there is plenty of room for him to grow and get significantly better and complete as a hitter.
18 Seattle Mariners Noah Franco, RHP/1B, IMG Academy Not Committed
Sleeper Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA) Committed to Texas
Noah Franco is the last of the reclassified group left on the board, he is also one of the last two-way talents left in the class. He is a better hitter than a pitcher, but he is one of the few guys I think could be either a hitter or a pitcher. While he profiles at first base it is more a long-term position as he gets stronger and fills in. There is every chance he could end up playing in the outfield as he has the arm and the athleticism to handle either spot in the outfield. I know the consensus is that he will end up at first, but he is such a good athlete it seems weird to me to just slot him there. As a pitcher, he currently sits low 90s but there is every reason to expect him to add more. His slider looks like a potential plus offering and he can spin it. His power as a hitter is his carrying trait, he hits the ball hard and can turn on a pitch. There are swing-and-miss concerns and his swing is not the most efficient one out there. I like him more as a pitcher than a hitter, going against the consensus. But he is the rare player who is an interesting enough two-way talent to make such debates possible. Sterling is the top prep arm this year, but prep arms have slid recently.
Comments
Post a Comment