First thank you for reading this is a labor of love, I spend hours and make nothing from these write ups. It is just something I enjoy doing every year and I hope you enjoy them too.
A quick note about these tiers. These tiers are just to show where I found a delineation in value or in terms of grouping. It shows when I think there are bigger and smaller gaps in the listing. For those who have never read my work before I tend to be more conservative leaving into safer player builds and using numerical molds that have proven successful in the past. This does not mean I don’t change and evolve but it does mean that my boards can be predictable and more risk-averse. I also try when I have information on money to make that part of the valuation. Let's face it if two guys are of equal talent or nearly equal talent and one costs a million less that is a huge deal and changes the overall amount of talent a team could land.
Ok, so two notes here at the top. The first is that this is all being done sans editor, being dyslexic this whole writing without a net has been kind of terrifying for me and is part of the reason my amount of writing has declined in general combined with it not being a job, podcasting, and starting a family. Still, I enjoy talking about the draft and continue to grind just for fun with it. So I will be posting my thoughts here. There will just be one evolving and changing board. I am writing up players as I get a chance to watch, read reports, and chat with people. I will post those down here and move players around as I see more, and write more so consider this a Big Board in pieces. Thank you to all who read and share every eye helps. If you would like to run any part of this on your site contact me as well.
Tier 1
1 Travis Bazzana, 2B/OF, Oregon State
The reason he is the top player in this class is there is no weakness in his game. He rarely chases or whiffs. He hits the ball with authority. He has a strong eye at the plate and is constantly improving as a hitter. He has one of the best work ethics I have ever heard reported. He is never content with being good enough, so his already sizable skills are constantly improving. He has played second base, but most think he could play outfield. I think with his work ethic he might be able to handle centerfield if challenged. He is the all-time just about every offensive stat king in Oregon State history. He is a guy who is always on the base paths. He is one of the safer prospects in recent memory, who also was the Cape Cod MVP last summer showing he can hit with wooden bats as easily as with metal. One can question the positional value, but if one is still questioning his power, they just aren’t paying attention. Don’t let his high floor convince you that there is not still a lot of ceiling for Bazzana. While he is maxed out physically he always finds a new area to work on, something he can improve, and comes back better.
2 Charlie Condon, 1B/OF, University of Georgia
It is a bit mind-boggling that Condon had to red-shirt as a freshman rather than play right away for Georgia. He has a chance to be the highest-drafted player from the school and the most successful hitter passing Gordon Beckham. Condon is a fantastic prospect and a 1b to the 1a for me in this class. Why do I disagree with the consensus? There are a lot of small risks with Condon and while I think his ceiling is higher than Bazzana I don’t think the gap there is as big as the gap between their floors. His height allows for great power, but 6’6” inches is often the height where hitters can struggle more in the big leagues and don’t age well. Anything 6 '5'' and over has historically had trouble or run into issues at age 30 IE Kris Bryant and Giancarlo Stanton. He had a short unsuccessful season in the Cape. There are not a lot of hitters who struggled in the Cape and found success later, even in small samples. He does have the success in the Northwoods to show he can hit with wood so it is mitigated to a degree. While he has played all over there are doubts if he will play anywhere but first and the history of right-handed first baseman has not been good, especially in recent years. None of these are huge, but combined it just shows elevated risk. He is still a player who looks the part of a middle-of-the-order bat, who has a good eye for the zone. I don’t think he will be a plus hitter but average to above should be the expectation. He is a smart, hard-working kid who should be a major leaguer for a long time. I would have had him as the top player in 20, 21, and 22 based on my grades at the time.
Tier 2
3 Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Chase Burns has not been my top pitcher all year, but the more you drill down, the harder it is to doubt the Wake Forest right-hander. Burns transferred from Tennessee after being considered a potential first-round arm out of high school. He developed steadily over college and has been incredibly effective with no real injury concerns. Yes, all pitchers' health is suspect at this point but Burns is clean. His fastball, curveball, and slider are all plus to double-plus offerings. He has elite spin rates and velocity. Everything plays up. His changeup is a solid fourth offering making him more developed than the typical college arm. He pairs a fastball that hits triple digits with a slider that no one could hit this year. Then throw in the curve and changeup just plain makes him unfair. His command and control have both been plus in college. There is some concern that he is closer to average in terms of command of pitches and that we will see as he faces better hitters. With his overall mix and stuff even if he ends up with 45 command I think he can still be successful. The only other knocks on Burns are related to him being a pitcher. There is some effort in the delivery but not enough to make me think he can’t start. He will get labeled a pitcher with some reliever risk, but let’s be honest that's a label one can put on almost every starter. Burns has been a consistent dominant force with the pitch mix, health, and pure dominance, making him one of the top players in this year's class—a year when pitchers struggled in general and Burns was a force of nature.
4 JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia
A lot of the value debate with Wetherholt comes down to whether you think he can stick at short or not as well as how good he can be there. His ability to square up and hit everything is what will see him taken early in the draft. His injury at the start of the year cost him 20 games. The loss of chances, as well as, the emergence of other players at the top moved him from a 1-1 candidate to a dark horse 1-1 candidate. There is some Trea Turner lite to his profile overall. He has one of the best hit tools in the class with low chase and great contact rates. His power is likely more of an average tool, but his speed is plus. His on-base skills and speed likely profile him as more of a lead-off than a middle-of-the-order bat. He did increase his walk percentage this year but that is one of those things that is not consistent translation stat. My concern is that what Wetherholt does best is often the tools that have less direct translation using the stats that we have on hand. The profile should allow him to move quickly and help a team up the middle sooner rather than later. While he might not have the power of some of the other hitters in this class the profile still points to a plus regular.
5 Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
It was quite the year for Kurtz. He started the year with teams avoiding him completely and it led to him expanding a bit to try and make an impact. He then got injured and was talked about as a slider in the class. Then he got healthy and showed the world why he was a 1-1 candidate last fall. Let’s start with the concerns, being a first baseman is a negative. Yes, he is a good athlete for his 6’5” 240-pound frame and could potentially play elsewhere. But the history of college first basemen converting to another position is not great. They are expected to move quickly and focus on hitting which takes away from learning or working on a new position. He has excellent power numbers but also plays in a more hitter-friendly, home-run-easy park. The greatest MLB hitter in Wake Forest history by bWAR is Stuart Fairchild. There is also some concern that Kurtz could be a bit passive with his extremely high walk rate. Now to counter these concerns. Yes, he is likely a first baseman but the bat should play there. He has 70-grade raw power and shows 60/65 in game. His walk rate has been higher which is likely more about teams pitching away from him and him not chasing in the zone than him being too passive. He has the best chance of any hitter in this class to have plus hit and plus power.
6 Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
One of my most abiding rules when watching players is to find players who succeed in environments that work against them. If a player succeeds or excels where they should fail that should get your attention. This led to me being the higher person at Kyle Bradish out of college. In this case, the entire college environment is working against pitchers. I am not sure if it's the ball, the bat, or whatever other theory out there. Yet there is no doubt that something is off. Smith has been a dominant force in college baseball. He has been mowing down the top players all year with a devastating fastball-slider combo. For those who also like age-based models, he is one of the youngest juniors in the class and will not turn 21 until mid-August. While he had Tommy John surgery in high school it is hard to ding a pitcher for that anymore with as often as it is occurring. Smith is outside of tier 1 for a couple of reasons not relating to the previous injury. The first and biggest concern for me is his control. His command has been solid all year with him hitting his spots. It's his control being average which is a concern. The number one reason a pitcher fails is due to control issues or injury. As he faces more selective hitters it could present a problem. The second concern is his third pitch is something he hasn’t had to use and is way behind his fastball and slider. He has worked on a change but it is not very usable right now. I started my profile expecting to be higher but the lack of a third pitch is a concern and will slow him down. His control being average is not ideal either. Health is a lesser concern due to how many pitchers have had health issues. I think he is one of the top players available even with concerns. The ceiling is high but there is a lot of risk as well for a top-five player.
7 James Tibbs, 1B/OF, Florida State
Tibbs has been one of the highest risers in this year's draft. He has increased his numbers across the board showing an increase in power and on-base skills while significantly cutting down on his strikeouts. He is one of the few players in the country with elite contact, chase, and hard-hit rates. He spent most of the year with more home runs than strikeouts. He started the year overshadowed by his teammate Cam Smith even though both were excellent on the Cape. There are concerns in terms of his position as some think he might be first base only, he has looked fine in the outfield this year and while he won’t win any awards I don’t doubt his ability to be an average corner outfielder. In terms of hit and power, he looks potentially plus in both categories. He is one of the safer profiles in the class as there are few potential ways for him to be valued in terms of profile. He doesn’t have any of the stats or numbers that typically raise any concerns. Outside of Bazzana he is the safest player in the class and should be one of the best bargains in terms of signing bonus in the class.
8 Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M
Brandon Montgomery is a specimen on the baseball diamond. He is built like a linebacker and has the power one would expect in a player with his build. He was a two-way player until this year but his struggles with control and command made it clear his future was off the mound. He is a plus athlete but not a plus runner. He is not a center fielder in the future, but his arm is one of the few potential 80-grade tools in this draft so he should be a plus defender in right. He is currently a switch hitter, but there is some thought that long term he might become a full-time lefty. Montgomery is a power hitter, his strength easily translates in the batter's box and gives him some of the best power in the class. There is some swing and miss and his strikeout percentage is just a bit over the 20 percent which is often a cut-off in terms of risk. His walk percentage is high but that doesn't always translate and when we see higher strikeout and walk percentages it can be a sign of passivity. Another positive in his favor was a limited but strong performance on the Cape a year ago. The profile is a middle-of-the-order hitter with plus defense in the outfield. His defense should buoy concerns with his hit tool and contact rates. He strikes me as a three-outcome type of hitter on the next level. There is some risk here higher than the other premier bats, but his ceiling is up there with any of the college hitters in this class due to his physical tools and ability.
9 Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
First, let’s address the elephant in the room. Caglianone could be a pitcher, but he would need to focus on just pitching for it to happen. He has good stuff but his control is a mess, at the same time Florida is most known for struggles with pitcher development. So there is a world where one could view Caglianone as a pitcher with good traits and bad development. The issue is the bat is so far ahead of his arm there is no chance that he will be given the time to work on his development as a pitcher. Two-way guys basically don’t exist, Ohtani is the exception that proves the rule. Caglianone has some of the best power in this class. He has easy power and should be able to tap into it long-term. The question for me is approach. He has some of the worst chase data in college baseball, and players with bad chase numbers don’t improve in those areas. He is going to swing and miss a lot. One is hoping that he can be like Luis Robert or maybe Michael Harris to make up for the swing-and-miss in his game. It's not impossible but it's a very rare group of players who can succeed with that profile. The other issue is his chase rate is higher than those players in the majors. He might be closer to Javy Baez. I also think he is likely a first baseman long term and the size concerns I mentioned with Condon are also here. His walk rate did jump this year but part of that is the same for Kurtz which is teams pitching around him. His contact rate gives me hope that he will be a guy with 70-grade power at first base and the ability to make an all-star game or two.
10 Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina University
It is a three pitcher class in terms of the top half of the first round. Brody Brecht tried to get himself back in late, but right now there are three pitchers who should all be gone by the first 12 or so picks. Yesavage might be the safest of the group with a long history of success at a pitching factory as well as a clean bill of health. Yesavage entered the year as a fastball, curveball, and slider pitcher who was a late first-rounder. While other players underperformed he added a splitter to his mix that might be his number two offering now. In recent years splitters have become more and more effective at the major league level. His overall combination looks more like a solid number 2 or 3 than an ace. With all the ineffectiveness, injuries, and lack of development for college arms, Yesavage has stood out this whole year. ECU has had several first-rounders in recent years but Yesavage has a chance to pass Jeff Hoffman has the highest pick in franchise history. Hoffman went 9th in 2014.
11 Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
Cam Smith is one of the better draft-eligible sophomores in this class. He had a so-so freshman year then used the Cape for a jumping-off point and has yet to hit the ground. He has combined elite exit velocities with high contact while also not expanding the zone. He should be able to stick at third as well providing some position value. I don’t think he gets enough credit for his power potential and think he has plus power potential. I think the hit tool is not quite as good as his teammate James Tibbs and there is a bit more risk in his overall profile due to more chase. He doesn’t have an alarming chase rate but it's not particularly strong either. One is betting on a whole-field approach with lots of hard hits and home runs, and some swing-and-miss. The offensive upside along with solid defense at the hot corner is enough to make him a top-ten talent in this class for me.
12 Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Waldschmidt had a slow start to the year after requiring off-season surgery on a torn ACL in his knee. This happened when he was playing in the Cape Cod League last July. He started the year mostly DHing before moving back to the outfield once his knee was ready to handle the rigors. This makes his phenomenal performance all year as well as top-shelf batted ball data all the more incredible. Waldschimdt didn’t just perform at a high level in the SEC, he excelled in all areas as a hitter. He rarely chases, his exit velocities are excellent and his contact rates also were near the top. He did this all in the best conference less than a year after a torn ACL. He runs well so there is a chance he could be a center fielder but he might just end up being a left fielder which does hurt his overall value. Then again I think his bat has the potential to play at first base. He has not been the best defender this year but how much of that is still due to his knee? It is impossible to guess. He is one of the more complete hitters in this class and has made a case for himself to be in the top ten discussions between batted ball data, traditional stats, as well as where he performed. If he had been healthy all year and had the chance to perform at a high level in the Cape I truly believe he would be consistently in the top 10 discussion.
Tier 3
13 Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep (MS) Committed to LSU
Griffin is a reclassified outfielder who has done a great job all spring. The issue here is that senior year performance rarely matters as the majority of players they are facing won’t go on to play even Division Three baseball let alone be a future professional. It is impossible to judge adjustments or changes and that is why most pop-up players are pitches and not hitters. As pitchers just need to show stuff and hitters need to show performance. This being said Griffin is an exciting athlete who is incredibly athletic. He looks the part of a future center fielder but has the arm for right field. He is a plus runner with a cannon arm. His swing is clean and efficient and he should be a player with easy plus power. The issue is there have been concerns about his swing-and-miss throughout his time as a high school player. If there is something outside of injury that is likely to cause a player to bust it is swing and miss concerns. I tend to be lower on high school players due to them having significantly more risk. I went over all the data and college players taken in the first half of the first round are more likely to be stars than a prep player is likely to be an average player. I had to balance the risk against the ceiling and that is what puts him further down the board. He has a better chance at success than some of the other high-ceiling prep players but the risk is too high for me to take him where he is likely to go at his cost.
14 Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (AR) Committed to Mississippi
Slade Caldwell has everything and does everything. He is a high-energy player who will be labeled a gamer. He is a plus runner with high-level exit velocity for a prep player. He has excelled on the biggest stages. The reason he is down the board is height. He is listed at 5’9” most places there has been some chatter he might be closer to 5' 6". If he was 6’1” Caldwell would be a top-five talent. Look at the All-Star game with several sub-six foot players, but teams still have concerns about players this size. I get it on one level, the odds are still better with more typically-sized players, but the talent is pretty clear here. He has a good approach, uses the whole field, and produces exit velocities that point to more power down the road. He is also a no-doubt center fielder which limits his one viewed weakness of a lack of arm. He is safer than Griffin, but the overall ceiling for Caldwell due to his size is not as high. Caldwell has the better approach and is the better hitter but in terms of the other tools Griffin rates higher. Even saying this I almost put Caldwell as the top prep player.
15 Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake (CA) Committed to Texas
Rainer is the top two-way high school player, but let’s be honest he is likely going to be a hitter going forward. He is a legit prospect as a pitcher as well, but his ability as a hitter stands out. Rainer looks the part of a future shortstop with quick actions and a strong arm. He is a good athlete who runs well and has shown a strong approach at the plate with elite exit velocities for his age. He showed extremely well at the National High School Invitational, one of the last big high school events for elite talent. He used it as a springboard to enter the top prep player debate. Rainer is a big kid and might move to third where he would project as an elite defender. He will turn 19 right before the draft which does make him an older high school kid who would be a draft-eligible sophomore in two years. With his size, power, and positional potential the name Corey Seager always comes up. If he was Seager he would be the top guy in the class. He could be but there is some risk here. For teams considering him in the top five, I would bet they see a shortstop with 60 grades across the board. I am just more cautious with overagers in general as well as high school talent.
16 Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
Carson’s older brother Garrett was drafted twice and ended up getting to A ball. His brother was more power over hit and so far Carson has been more hit over power. He has the best chance to be a two-way player in the class due to having better pitchability, off-speed offering, and command. This being said I still don’t see it happening due to the bat being much more advanced than the arm. Ohanti had a big advantage when he came over being developed to do both, we just don’t see college players with that same opportunity. Benge has shown excellent contact all year and rarely chases. His 90th percentile exit velocities were down this year which is usual for a player who is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He had Tommy John as a freshman. There has been debate about whether he can handle center. He is a decent athlete overall, but with his arm, right field should be no problem. He looks the part of an above-average right fielder who should hit for some power and get on base.
17 Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore will leave Tennessee the all-time home run record holder after fighting all year with Blake Burke for that honor. Moore started the year as the fourth or fifth-best prospect on his team to some. Blake Burke and Billy Amick were the bigger names and Dylan Dreiling and Kavaras Tears at point at more attention than Moore. The Volunteers are the first NCAA baseball team with five players with 20 or more home runs, and Moore had 10 more than Billy Amick who was second on the team. Moore was the deadliest hitter on a historically great team. While he is not the biggest guy his exit velocities show his power is legit. He had one of the biggest increases in 90th percentile exit velocity in the NCAA this year. It shows how he worked to end up with the production he had. His chase rates were close to being on the high end but really on the cusp. His contact rate was also solidly average so it is not an area that he was fine at but excellent. Moore is a power-over-hit future second base. His arm is not strong enough to play short or third. He is likely a second baseman or a left fielder. He was a plus runner out of high school, but as reported is closer to average now, if he was closer to a 55 or 60 runner it would be easier to say he is a future center fielder. Moore’s bat speed and exit velocities show a player with plus power from the right side. His 90th percentile exit velocity was second to Charlie Condon in this class. In the past, he was a very tooled-up player and I wonder if the reports on him have changed as he has gotten bigger and stronger or if he is still a plus athlete but has focused on power almost exclusively. One thing I know is the former New Yorker should be a top 20 player due to his power and overall batted ball data showing a potential average hit tool to go with his plus power.
18 Seaver King, OF/SS, Wake Forest
Seaver King made the transition from division two Wingate to Wake Forest and did a fairly good job. He bounced all around the diamond from center to third to second to short. I think whatever team drafts him should try him at short and then center just in terms of positional value. King has some of the best tools in the class and got better as the year went on. He is one of the few legitimate up-the-middle talents in the college class. While he is not one of the biggest guys he had one of the top 20 90th percentile exit velocities on top of plus run. While his home run production was helped by playing at Wake. His power should be at least average if not a bit above when you consider his exit velocity in college. He also excelled last summer with both Team USA and the Cape. So why did I place a qualifier at the top of his write after all the positives? Well, his chase rate was one of the worst among potential first-rounders. It's not in the Jac level and is something he can find success with but it is a concern as chase rates don’t go down as players get closer to the majors. Swing and miss is also the number one reason why hitters fail outside of injury. When one chases it leads to more swing and miss, and while one can get away with it in college it is often why we see players struggle who excelled in college. His contact rate was pretty solid which is why I am viewing him as a top 15 talent in spite of his chase. King is extremely talented and his potential to play a premium position along with his speed and exit velocities have me intrigued. I thought he would end up being a top 10 talent and now it looks like it is unlikely to happen. I think there is more power here than he gets credit for and also the guy showed steady improvement all year going from D2 to D1 which alone points to his growth potential.
19 Jurrangelo Cijnjte, RHP, Miss State
Cjinjte has been a player that stood out debating back to high school due to how rare it is to find any potential switcher-pitcher. Cijnjte is a natural lefty, but he is a better right-handed pitcher than a lefty. He is an undersized righty (5”11) which is why some think his future is as a reliever. In a relief role, he has a better chance to stay a switch pitcher but I think most view him as a future right-handed pitcher. If he was a lefty he would be a late day two or day three pitcher so let’s focus on the right side where he touches upper 90s while working a slider as both a lefty and a righty. Cijnjte is a draft-eligible sophomore who showed big improvement this year in his control and command. This caused him to go from a day-two pitcher to a potential first-rounder. Between size, age, and command concerns Cijntje had a lot to prove this year and did so successfully which is why he looks like a near-top-30 lock, especially in a class lacking arms. As a Friday night starter in the SEC this year it was impressive to see him cut his walks per nine from 6.12 to 2.98, that level of improvement is unusual to see and speaks to the growth potential. Jurrangelo’s father was a pitcher so there are bloodlines as well. Once he focuses on being a righty which was something he did a lot more this year shows why there is reason to believe there is more room for growth with Cijnjte than the typical college arm.
20 Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence HS (TX) Committed to Texas A&M
Wyatt Sanford is yet another prep player who has seen his name steadily move up draft boards. He is a defense-first shortstop with good speed and bloodlines. His dad got a few cups of coffee in the majors. I wish there was more up-to-date public data on him. Much of what I could find was from 2022, which makes it not useful. Sanford has a clean swing that is geared for contact. His bat is fast through the zone and he makes hard contact. He waits on his pitch, and then attacks. He has a lot of traits of the son of a big leaguer, and it all benefits him in terms of awareness, mature approach in the field and at bat, as well as good instincts. He makes quick reads and reacts well which allows him to project as a shortstop going forward. It also allows his bat to project as average with the potential for more. Sanford was a late rise, he was known but not talked about as much in the summer, but the more scouts saw him the more he rose. A high school shortstop who projects to not just stay there but be an above-average defender should guarantee him a spot in the top 30 unless he gets promised a bigger bonus later. One does not have to squint to see a guy who could be 55/60 in the field and at the plate with 60 run while playing a premium position. He likely is closer to 50 hitter, and 55 defender which is still a starter for most teams in baseball.
21 Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
I am warming back up to Brecht in spite of his command issues this year. He did get better as the year went on, but for me, it's about the traits. Iowa had arguably the most talented rotation outside of Wake Forest to start the year and every single one of those arms saw their stock with a down arrow despite athleticism and stuff. Brecht has as good a fastball as any player in this class. His walk rate over the last two months was significantly lower which gives me hope as well. Brecht is a double-plus athlete who was also a football player for the Hawkeyes. He has only been focused on pitching for a short time while also pitching for a program that has not put a lot of players into the big leagues. The last first-rounder from Iowa was Tim Costo in 1990, and just three overall. There were a lot of complaints with how he was handled and used this year as well. Brecht’s fastball touches triple digits and he shows a potential plus slider as well. The ceiling is up there with Burns and Smith, but the risk is also there. My theory on injury avoidance is that being athletic is a big part, and Brecht has that. He has the beginnings of a front-of-the-line pitch mix as well. He just needs a ton of work and refinement. We saw Hurston Waldrep fall last year due to performance over traits, though his profile was cleaner than Brecht’s. The raw traits are there for a very good pitcher, the question becomes how much one thinks Brecht’s command and control can be fixed. Normally I am out on players like him, but the athleticism and the room for growth and coaching feel very high. In a draft with a soft middle, I don’t mind the gamble on a player with top 5 potential.
22 Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech
Kevin Bazzell can really hit. He did during his career at Texas Tech. He had the best contact rate of any of the players I tracked this year. He has elite ball-to-bat skills. He can chase a bit, likely due to his ability to make contact. His chase rate was not bad, just on the high end of medium. He has a strong arm and while there is debate if can stick at catcher long term. There is little doubt he could be able to play on the corners due to good athleticism and his arm. His ability to hit the ball. A team might work with him to see if there is more power, but this also could cut back on what makes him a first-round pick, his ability to constantly make contact. If he sticks behind the plate he looks like a starter with the upside of a top-of-the-line-up hitter. He might end up being more of a double hitter than a 20 home run threat but with his contact rates, he should be a regular for a team either behind the plate at third or in the outfield.
23 Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
Walker Janek is a hard player to rank. I am not sure if he has a plus offensive tool or will be a plus defender at catcher. He also doesn’t have a huge weakness or areas of improvement either. He is just a solid 50 in just about every category currently. While that doesn’t seem like a first-rounder when it's a catcher it most definitely is. A player who is 50s across the board is likely a top-10 catcher in baseball. His arm is plus, but other than that he is a guy who does everything well. He also excelled in the Cape which is another positive point in his direction. There is a chance he could surprise and hit a little more than expected when one looks at his BABIP and other rates I could see him maybe having a 55-hit tool. The value is in the position, and the high likelihood of him being an above-average player at a position where teams struggle to find average let alone above-average.
24 Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
Are you a fan of upside bets, then I got a pitcher for you. Caminiti is the nephew of former NL MVP Ken Caminiti. He is also a player who is supposed to be a junior in high school but reclassified last year so he would be a senior this year making him one of the youngest players in the 2024 draft. Caminiti is also one of the many two-way players in this class, and if he was going to a lesser program I would think he might get a chance to stay in the outfield and pitch. He is just too good a pitching prospect, but the general athleticism is easy to see with him and only benefits him as a starter. He is a low-90s guy who can touch the upper-90s. He has shown three pitches most of the year and can command them all. His pitchability right now is my favorite trait. He has such a great feel in and around the zone. When one looks at him one can see a solid number two type with a four-pitch upside. There is a lot of growing and work to do, and high school pitchers scare me in general. Yet he is the consensus top prep arm and the top prep lefty in a few years.
25 Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (IL) Committed to Wake Forest
There was a time when a kind like Sloan never would have gotten away from Louisville but times have changed and I don’t blame any pitcher who wants to remake themselves at the pitching factory that is Wake. Sloan is a big kid at 6’5” and 220 pounds. As one might expect for a player with his size he throws his fastball very hard. He sits mid-90s and touches his upper-90s. He shows a slider and changeup that both look like above average to plus pitch offerings. He repeats his delivery well and is fluid in and around the zone. I came into writing him up thinking he would be a down-the-board pitcher for me in the prep group. But I came away impressed. He isn’t a thick kid and could add weight, but he has a thick lower half. His extension is good, and he repeats and hits his spots well. With his size, velocity, and extension it's going to feel like he is throwing triple digits. He should be able to hold up as a starter and also have a working pitch mix to be a starter. I debated him and Caminiti as my top prep arm and will be debating them until the draft.
26 Theo Gillen, OF, Westlake HS (TX) Committed to Texas
Theo Gillen has had one of the most successful springs in terms of increasing their draft value. He is one of the better athletes in the class and has shown a strong approach at the plate when he is healthy enough to play. This is my concern with Gillen. So far he has missed time due to labrum surgery, a knee injury, and a groin strain. When I see that mix of injuries it makes me concerned that he is not going to be able to stay healthy long term. That is a lot of issues in four years of high school, and the amount of stress on the body will only be increasing. If he had been healthy during his four years at school he might have entered the year as the top prep prospect due to this athleticism and approach. The issue is he has not been remotely close to healthy and in general health issues continue for players post being drafted. He has the potential to be a five-tool player at a premium position, center field, but I am leery of his health.
27 Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (CA) Committed to Oklahoma State
Braylon Doughty has everything a team looks for in a right-handed pitcher except size. He is a very athletic pitcher with high spin rates. Every single pitch moves and is at the higher end of spin rates. His fastball, curveball, and slider all stand out as potential above-average to plus offerings. It feels like everything for him moves and is hard to pick up. His changeup is a work in progress but he hasn’t needed it due to his three other pitches most notably to me his curve and fastball. His curve is his best offering but there is a chance to three above-average to plus pitches here. His control is average but not a concern at all. The pitch mix and his general athletic profile allows everything to play up despite less than than-ideal size. I will also do my yearly harping that athleticism is an underrated trait for pitches as it helps prevent injuries. There are a core four of prep arms for me and Doughty is in it with Sloan, Schmidt, and Caminiti. In terms of size, anything under 6 '3'' inches is viewed as undersized for a right-hander. When I started covering the draft guys like Doughty made it to school all the time because of how draconic pitcher height views have been. There are reasons for this as yes ideal range height does lead to more successful outcomes in general, but flexibility is always key. There are still teams that will likely knock down or avoid Doughty at his height. It is easy to see why Doughty has been steadily on the rise due to pitch mix, spin rates, and plus athletic traits. For me, there is a big three and he is part of it. It is easy to see why Doughty has been steadily on the rise due to his pitch mix, spin rates, and plus athletic traits.
28 William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA) Committed to LSU
LSU has a killer class of prep arms; it just feels like none of them are likely to make it to school. Schmidt is arguably the top right-handed prep arm in this class. His curveball is a weapon already and is one of the best curves in this class. It is one of those rare curves that hits the 3000 rpm which is often the first sign of a potential plus plus pitch. His fastball has hit 99 and has solid movement with it to make it another potential plus offering. He also has a slider and a changeup that are developing. He has prototypical size at 6’4” inches and could conceivably get stronger and throw even harder as he develops. Right now he is a big kid with two big pitches who, health-providing, has a nice floor as a reliever. If his changeup or slider develops into show me pitches then one is looking at a potential two or three types with maybe a chance for more.
29 Ryan Prager, LHP, Texas A&M
Ryan Prager was one of the best pitchers in college baseball last year. He was the rare pitcher to excel during a record-breaking season across the country. Prager ended up being one of the bigger risers this year. He got TJ surgery as a freshman and this was his first full season in college. Normally we see pitchers who have had TJ surgery struggle with their command in the first year back from surgery. Instead, he had a walk rate under two and a strikeout rate over 11 in the top conference in the country. Prager hasn’t added any velocity during his college career, so there is hope that he could have more growth potential. Right now he mostly sits low 90s which he mixes with a good slider and change. All three pitches are above average offerings which play up thanks to natural deception in his delivery. The question becomes if you try to maximize his velocity do you have to mess with his delivery which has allowed him to be so successful? Right now he looks the part of at least a backend starter with a chance for more if he adds the velocity a lot of people expected him to add in college.
30 Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (FL) Committed to Florida
Kellon Lindsey has been a hot name after the combine. Everyone knew about his physical tools, but for some, it was their first chance to see the Florida shortstop in person. Lindsey was also a quarterback for most of his high school career, before giving it up to focus on baseball. Lindsey has some of the best speed in this class for anyone not named Dante Nori. He also showed some power at the combine hitting a few balls over 100 mph but that's not really his game. He is going to be more of a table-setter type long term. He also stands to get stronger and might end up with a little more power than expected, maybe pushing to average his weakest tool. He has a chance to stay at short, but if he doesn’t stick there he should still have positional value as centerfield would make the next most sense. My one concern is due to injury we did not get to see him face the elite summer competition. While it's not always the end all be all, it does give you a chance to see a guy facing the best. It's when you really get your best looks against players facing real talent. Lindsey has a good sense for the game both in the field and at the plate. He doesn’t have some of the rawness we typically see in quarterbacks converting to baseball. Lindsey’s performance and tools are raising him up boards but there is a bit more risk here as well.
31 PJ Morlando, OF/1B, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
I need to be honest before the year began Morlando was my number one prep prospect and had one of the highest grades I had given a prep bat in recent years. He was a dominant force all summer while facing the best competition. He showed plus power and a whole-field approach that spoke to a degree of safety and ceiling. He had a down spring, some defensive questions arose, and turned 19 in May making him an older hitter. I get the debates about age and position. I tend to not care about spring prep performance as it is often more about what you do over the summer than what you do in the spring. Morlando did an amazing job at the combine showing elite exit velocities and distances. His power from the right side has never been up for debate. He needs some coaching and refinement but it feels now like a player who is getting slept on as teams look for reasons to not draft Morlando. I put a lot more weight into what he accomplished during the summer than into a mediocre spring. When one can beat elite competition that is what stands out. He is starting to look like a potential good value as people are discounting him a bit too much. He might be a bat-first hitter, but there is middle-of-the-order potential there.
Tier 4
32 Gage Jump, LHP, LSU
Gage Jump was one of my top high school players to make it to school in 2021. The undersized lefty showed good current stuff along with strong second offerings that made him seem like a safe bet to be a first-rounder after three years of school. He was part of a very vaunted recruitment class at UCLA which has seen nearly every player transfer or have lower value three years later. Jump got hurt during his freshman year at UCLA and required TJ surgery. This is often a concern teams have that smaller pitchers are more injury-prone. Jump is listed at six feet but likely is a little shorter than that. When one combines injury, lack of reps, and size it makes sense why Jump is a big lower on boards for a player who has been a known quantity for years and has the pitch mix to start. His four-pitch mix are all at least average pitches, which right away makes him a potential starter. In terms of college, he pitched in the SEC this year and his walk rate was sub-three with a strikeout rate over 11 those are fantastic numbers. The walk rate stands out as command and control often suffer in the first year after TJ surgery. The fact he came out and performed so well stood out as I had previously liked his stuff. He projects as a backend starter with a chance for mid-rotation going forward due to his control, command, and projecting multiple pitches to be average or better. He should be even better in 2025 when he is two years back.
33 Luke Holman, RHP, LSU
One of my consistent adages is to look for a player who succeeds when they should not. Luke Holman transferred into LSU and quickly became one of the best performers in the country this year during a year where no one pitched well. He was one of the last starting pitchers in the country to give up an earned run, more fun fact than data point. The former Pennsylvania prep player missed bats, kept his walk rate down, and was very hard to hit. His slider is one of the best ones in the draft and will be his outpitch. He has a four-pitch mix, just not sure anything other than the slider is plus. This likely makes him more of a backend starter despite his production. One can wonder if maybe due to extension, tunneling, or beak if maybe his fastball plays up a bit more. Holman lacks ceiling but looks the part of a quick to the majors starter with command and control to allow him to be successful with lower 90s velocity.
34 Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS (OK) Committed to Oklahoma State
I can already hear the angry comments about this ranking. Yet I had similar issues with Trevor Rogers and Brett Baty, who both made the majors so maybe I was wrong when it comes to players who are more than the typical older high school player. Mayfield turned 19 in February, which means he had a full year of physical development over the players he faced; that's an advantage. Then he didn’t take part in the summer circuit, not the worst thing for an arm, but that also meant we didn’t get to see him face elite competition. For me, those are two things that combine for too big of a risk. I understand why people like Mayfield. He is hitting triple digits, he shows four pitches, and two look above average to plus. He has great extension and commands his pitches well even his changeup, which has a lot of movement. There are a lot of positives here and he projects out due to his command and control as safer than some of the prep pitchers ahead of him. He is likely to go in the top 40 picks which makes sense for any lefty with his velocity and command.
35 Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern
Mike Sirota is one of the hardest players to rank in this entire class. He was viewed as a five-tool player heading into the year after a strong sophomore year and an excellent Cape. He has power, speed, and strong defense in center field. He was a top-ten player in my Way Too Early Mock. Then it all fell apart for Sirota. His contact rates were way down, all while playing in a lesser conference. His 90th percent exit velocity didn’t match his power either. He went from 18 to 7 home runs in a year where everyone was setting records. His chase rate stayed the same from a year ago, his walk rate is up, but the contact rates are a concern. He is one of the younger juniors in the class not turning 21 until June. He also has excellent bloodlines being the great-nephew of Hall of Famer Whitey Ford. He is also a small school and cold weather player, which can point to more ceiling. There are a lot of reasons to think the best days are ahead for Sirota. The question is how much can one look past his junior year. He has a history of success and tools that could allow him to be a regular.
36 Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
Over the last decade, it has felt like every Duke player has struggled in their draft year from Griffin Conine, Michael Matuela, etc. Unfortunately for Santucci, while he had a good year it did not live up to expectations. He was viewed as a first-rounder often ranked in the same range as Trey Yesavage to start the year. Instead, he struggled with his command and saw his strikeout rate go down this year from the year before. The previous year Santucci only pitched half a season after needing surgery for bone chips in his arm. Santucci is a very good athlete who got at-bats his first two years at school as well. His fastball, slider, and change-up all flash above average or plus. He has the mix to be a starter, but he has not been able to command them consistently so far during his time at Duke. When it comes to pitchers it is often about traits more than results from the college group. Santucci has starter traits and the pitches to start. He looked like a potential mid-rotation starter early in the year. Yet control issues are the number one reason a pitcher fails outside of injury. Being a lefty with stuff gives him a rather high floor as a reliever, but again this is only if his control can improve.
37 Carter Johnson, 2B/3B Oxford HS (AL) Committed to Alabama
Carter Johnson is one of the more polarizing prospects in this class. There is debate about his ceiling, his position, and his value. This all makes sense when you look at the last year as a whole where he performed well in showcase events but not as well with the US 18 and under team. In his defense, a lot of players seemed to struggle at that setting this year when you look at the numbers. Johnson is a big shortstop currently. I think he will move off the position but his arm is good enough for third and his bat will play at second or third. The bat is what will get Johnson drafted. He has shown both above-average hit and power potential so far in his young career. One can squint and see a Jordan Westburg profile with Johnson, I had a person or two talk about Gunnar Henderson at the same point in his career. While I don’t love comparing a guy who is in the 30-50 range to an All-Star there is a logic. Henderson is another Alabama kid whose value was in the 30-50 range with defensive questions and a strong bat.
38 Cole Mathis, 1B, College of Charleston
Cole Mathis started the year on a tough note. There was a health issue that caused him to come out of the gate slowly. It is also likely why he switched to hitting full team after being one of the more successful two-way players in the country in 2023. Some teams thought his future was on the mound not at first. Mathis was a name on the rise after the Cape, which is why the slow start to the year was such a bummer. In the Cape, he hit 11 home runs, the second-best total in the Cape so there is little doubt about his ability to hit with wood. He also had very strong contact and chase this season after he adjusted to his elbow injury and got healthier. He is more hit over power but there is power in the profile as well. His arm is strong enough to potentially try outfield, catcher, or third, but he might not have the feet to handle those positions. His dad was also a minor leaguer with the Cleveland Indians in the 90s before becoming a coach so he has both bloodlines and being a coach's son as some benefits too. There is a lot to like in the profile, and potentially the chance to buy on a hitter that after the summer looked like a second-rounder or a comp pick. The slow start hurt his stock, as when he was facing the best talent, he was not healthy. Once he got it all together it was against lesser competition. There is a chance for 55-hit and power or maybe even a backend starter if you choose to have him develop the other way.
39 JD Dix, SS, Whitefish Bay HS (WI) Committed to Wake Forest
Yes JD Dix played in practically my backyard, so I have been following him loosely for a few years. While last year Craig Counsell’s son was the senior big name it was Dix that got my attention. He is yet another player in this class that had labrum surgery and it cost him a chance to show up during the summer circuit. He was there but didn’t play at full health waiting until the fall to get surgery. Dix's best tool is his speed the kid can run, he doesn’t always get the credit for it but he is fast. He shows an advanced approach with high contact and a good enough arm for short. He reminds me a little of a bigger JJ Wetherholt. If he had been healthy during the last year I think he would have been a potential first-round bat. One can wonder if there might be more here as Dix hasn’t been able to show everything he can do. I think the hit tool could be plus with average power and plus speed at short that’s a future lead-off hitter and a top-10 talent at the position. There are a few teams very high on Dix and I think he might end up in round two this year.
40 Tyson Lewis, 3B, Millard West HS (NE) Committed to Arkansas
While his name might make some people think of a boxing match, Tyson Lewis is maybe the most tooled-up player in this year's class. There is no one in the prep ranks I know of with a better speed and power combination. He can fly and also absolutely hammer baseballs. His max exit velocity of 108 is fantastic as a high school player. Lewis is another player who has been steadily on the rise all spring due to his high-level production and athletic traits. He took off at the February Pro Showcase where he was near the top of every athletic test. He is a raw kid, defensively he looks likely to move off of short in the future and likely to third base. While he has big tools, there is also a lot of swing-and-miss in his game so far. The question is how much of his physical talent does one think they can mold and turn into an elite player? He has all the traits and talent, but he needs a lot of refinement as well. He is one of the bigger risk/reward players in the first round. In a class that is lacking in the 15-50 range Lewis stands out in terms of his potential.
41 Caleb Lomavita, C, California
Caleb Lomavita has managed to maintain his draft stock this year. He is an athletic catcher who has been successful for California. He also has two years of excellent play in the Cape to help elevate his value. He has plenty of arm for a catcher and should stick there long-term. There is a world where he could be a super utility guy for a team playing on the corners and catcher while playing every day. Yet his ceiling at catcher means that is where he starts, but gives teams options down the line as well. He runs well and should be a potential double-digit stolen base player in the majors. His speed isn’t plus but for a catcher it is. He has 219 plate appearances in the Cape, which means scouts know him well and saw him have success. The only negative is he had the 8th worst chase rate in the country, which was up from his sophomore year. He doesn’t strike out too much but it is on the high end of ok (15%-20%). He doesn’t walk at all, and his contact rate is just average as are his exit velocities. I have some concerns that it might be more of a backup profile as I am not sure if his power is more than average. His athleticism does elevate him as well as his summer production. There is a lot of ceiling here and a chance for a top-10 starting catcher, but there is also a lot of risk as his chase rate points to a player who might really struggle facing better competition in the minors and majors.
Tier 5
42 Blake Burke, 1B, Tennessee
Blake Burke is yet another Tennessee player to make the top 60 or so this year. It really should come as no surprise they managed to win the championship this year. Burke was battling Christian Moore for the Tennessee all-time home run record this year. Moore ended up with the title but Burke still played well. His numbers in terms of batted ball data are similar to Jac Caglianone thanks to their names being alphabetically back to back this really stood out. Burke's 90th percentile exit velocity was 1.5 miles slow but his chase was five percent better and his contact rate four percent better. Bure had a significant increase in his exit velocity this year which allowed him to get up to that range. Burke didn’t strike out another common theme between him and Jac again being very similar in that area. Burke is a below-average defender to the point I almost listed him as a DH. He does not run well either. You are drafting him because his bat makes ball go far.
43 Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
It was a rough year for Malcolm Moore at Stanford. The Cardinals catcher was widely viewed as a top 20 talent in this draft, and could still go in the top 20 even after a down year. The draft-eligible sophomore saw his power drop a bit but also saw the second biggest drops in chase across the country this year. He chased less and his walks went up, so even though his average was down his on-base on the whole was up. He had good contact rates this year which along with his improvement in terms of chase and power potential. His exit velocities did not match the reports on his power. The two big questions as I see it are can he stick at catcher and can he hit for power? If the power and position don’t develop then he likely isn’t a first baseman. He needs one of these two factors to develop to make him an everyday player. If you buy in on both points then he is a top-of-the-first-round player with top-five potential at the catcher position. I am more willing to bet on him as a catcher right now than on his power. Moore can hit but the other questions push him down.
44 David Shields, LHP, Mt. Lebanon HS (PA) Committed to Miami
David Shields is yet another player who reclassified from the 2025 to 2024 draft. While it has massively benefitted the 2024 draft one can’t help but wonder about the effect on next year's group. While he is now young for this class, if Shields had not reclassified he would have been draft-eligible after his sophomore year. Shields is a great athlete who was also a starting quarterback until giving it up to focus on baseball. As a two-sport, cold-weather, player with just three years of high school baseball, he is as one would expect raw. He commands his pitches well and shows control. Right now his pitches are more in the theoretical state than anything else. He has a fastball, slider, and change they are fine but one is betting on youth, lack of experience, focusing on baseball, and athleticism to project him going forward. Shields is a bit of an enigma in that way. It's all about the traits and one's ability to work with him. There are no negatives against him, but also one has to understand he is a project but one who could end up a steal down the road. When one looks for traits for growth and ceiling he has them all except bloodlines. I also have to mention Shields lost even more developmental time due to a case of mono this spring that delayed his season and caused him to lose 15 pounds, which is another reason to feel good about his growth while also understanding it means he just hasn’t thrown as much.
45 Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
After Vance Honeycutt’s freshman year, he was viewed as the favorite to go number one overall in 2024. After his sophomore year, he was talked about as a top 5 talent. After an even worse junior year, he is talked about as a guy who might fall out of the top 20. Honeycutt had the worst increase in case rate I could find at over 11%. His increase is higher than one of the players in the database I put together this year. He did increase his exit velocity significantly as well. His was the fourth-highest increase behind Travis Bazzana, Dylan Drieling, and Braden Montgomery which is an excellent group to be in. Honeycutt’s data this year mirrored his freshman year. He tried to cut back on strikeouts and chase as a sophomore but went back to more free swinging to try and access his power yet again. He is big, strong, and fast. He has every tool but a hit tool. The former high school quarterback has shown off plus-plus athleticism in college. He is a plus defender in center field. The problem is improving hit tool, decreasing chase, and increasing contact are very unlikely to occur. When hitters fail it is due to what Honeycutt struggles with across the board. The history of hitters with strikeout rates over 20 percent is bad, when it's pushing 30 there are just a handful of successes. The team drafting him hopes he can do enough to access his power and that his plus defense in centerfield might lead to more Jose Siri than Brett Phillips.
46 Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
Dakota Jordan is one of the best athletes in the college class. He was recruited to Mississippi State as both a baseball and a football player. He was a three-star recruit but never ended up playing football. Instead, he was a day-one starter for the baseball team. He has bat speed and is a very strong kid, his 90th-percentile exit velocities were fifth in the class. He has potential 65/70 power but the question is can he make enough contact to get to it consistently? His strikeout rate increased this year to 28%. Anything over 20% is a concern. He also consistently chased and had low contact numbers. The draft-eligible sophomore has a lot in common with another draft-eligible sophomore Jared Jones in terms of data. Jordan’s combination of power and speed is among the best of any college player. Yet for me, it is a profile that often leads to struggles. A team needs to think they can work with him to clean up and cut down on chase and contact, which are very hard to do. There are exciting tools here, but the overall profile is one that scares me. He might have the best physical tools in the entire draft.
47 Billy Amick, 1B/3B, Tennessee
Billy Amick transferred to Tennessee this year and was one of the record-breaking group of players with 20 or more home runs. He has a lot of chase in his game, the 11th-highest in the draft group. It was funny he was between Blake Burke and Tommy White on the list making it apparently where the first baseman rank. Amick saw an increase in his chase but also a solid increase in his exit velocities and that is what will get him drafted. He had a short time on the Cape and performed well with wood, so that's a bonus in his favor. There are positional debates, I think he is likely a first baseman though some think he has a chance at third. Amick is a bet on power. He has some of the better power projection among the college hitters, tied for 13th in the 90th percentile exit velocity. While he had a strong walk rate and an ok strikeout rate his contact rate was not good. So it's a bit of an all-or-nothing swing, for a player that is likely to end up at first base with plus power. Being on the lower end of both contact and chase rates is something that makes it hard for me to put him above a second-round grade even with good data when he does make contact.
48 Bryce Cunningham, RHP, Vanderbilt
Bryce Cunningham was not the pitcher from Vanderbilt expecting to get first-round chatter this year, but after a strong Cape which led to a strong junior year, he is that guy. Frankly, he was kind of a mediocre reliever in his first two years. He was great on the Cape as a starter and got people talking. He was solid for Vanderbilt in a year which was about what any team could ask a pitcher for. He is a big kind, built like a workhorse innings eater at 6’5” and 233 pounds. His fastball is mid-90s but seemed to get hit a lot. He also has a slider and a change. The change is his best offering and the only one I think that has plus potential. It is a plus offering now. He showed improved control and command this year but both are closer to average than anything else. It is a hard profile as he needs to start. It is not a profile that often has much success with transitioning to the pen. One has to mention Vanderbilt’s pitching pipeline has also dried up over the years as no Vanderbilt pitcher has appeared in more than 65 games since Walk Buehler who was drafted 12 years ago.
49 Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
A year ago, it looked like Hess could be a potential first-rounder. He is built like an innings eater who had dominated the competition in a limited sample. He has a starter’s mix led by his fastball and his curve. He has excellent extension which helps his fastball play up. They both generated a lot of whiffs for him this year. This was his first healthy year in his college career which is a red flag. The health issues date back to high school where he had a back stress fracture as well as multiple injuries in college. In addition, his control disappeared this year, his walks per nine more than doubled during his junior year. When you look at his data it is easy to see why he could be viewed as a first-round arm he has four pitches and two look plus. The problem is the litany of health issues as well as the command issues this year. One could strike it rich or he might struggle to stay healthy and never amount to much. If he had the numbers from a year ago he would be a legit first-rounder but the negatives are such to push him to closer to a third-round grade.
50 Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
Jacob Cozart much like Malcolm Moore is a player who once was talked about as a potential top 20 pick in this class. While some still have Moore there Cozart has slid. He doesn’t have a carrying tool is the issue. He is a solid catcher, but nothing great or stellar behind the plate. He does a good job with framing and that might be his best defensive trait. Offensively he had his best season as he saw an increase in his walk rate as well as more power production. His contact rates were not good this year and despite his production, his exit velocity was middling. He didn’t chase too much but there isn’t a standout offensive tool either. The contact rate is a concern as is the lack of an outstanding trait. He looks like a potential catcher due to 50s across the board. Catchers have value, and NC State does have a long successful history of catchers which helps his case as well.
51 Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas
Peyton Stovall is a player who was rumored to potentially go in the top two rounds of the 2021 draft class due to his advanced approach and ability as a hitter. He went to school and was decent as a freshman and then injuries. He tried to play through a labrum tear, not a good idea labrum are finicky at best, and struggled as a sophomore. He broke his foot and missed the beginning of play this year. He was not a forgotten player but one that needed to prove himself all over again this year. One could see the difference being healthy did for Stovall as he had a solid increase in his exit velocity while decreasing his chase rate. His exit velocity and chase were ok but his contact was plus. This should not be a surprise for anyone who has followed or watched him. The bet here is purely on hit and on-base skills. He has sub-average power and speed. He is more of a gritty, grinder type. There is a good chance for success though when you look at what he did this year as well as batted ball data.
52 Ryan Johnson, RHP, Dallas Baptist
Ryan Johnson was one of the best pitchers in the country this year. He is a large human at 6’6” who struck out nearly 13 per nine while barely walking more than one. He has a solid pitch mix with his slider standing out as one of the better pitches in the class. Yet I don’t think I have ever seen a delivery like his. It has a ton of effort with almost no windup and it makes him look like a future reliever in spite of his control, pitch-mix, and size. He takes a small step forward that feels so nonchalant that when his fastball gets up there in the mid-90s it might surprise you. He has touched 100 though he sits low to mid 90s. One can give him a chance to start, but I just don’t see how it happens long-term. He should be a quick-moving reliever who could help a team’s pen sooner than later.
53 Kaelen Culpepper, Util, Kansas State
Shortstops are the quarterback of the NFL draft; they always rise, is something I have said for a decade. Yet I feel like most times I have written it is for a player like Culpepper where the majority of the value feels like it comes for the position over the production. Some teams love Culpepper and he will go higher than expected on draft day. His production for the US collegiate national team I think won him a lot of fans. My issue is he chased way too much this year, higher than Vance Honeycutt. While also having very low exit velocities. It's a profile that screams “It's a trap” because he has low strikeout rates and is known for a good eye at the plate. Yet his chase rate was deep in the red for me. His contact was ok, nothing good or bad but when you combine a limited power guy who might not stick at shortstop who also chased at a high rate it just doesn’t project well. I see more of a utility guy than a starter down the road.
54 Dylan Dreiling, OF, Tennessee
Dylan Dreiling is yet another draft-eligible sophomore in this year's class. An unintended consequence of pushing the draft back a month is the number of summer birthdays that now fall in the right window to make a player draft-eligible after just two years of college. Dreiling is a hard player to fully evaluate. He was a part-time player as a freshman and didn’t do any wood-bat leagues last year. This year at Tennessee he was another high-power hitter for them with 40 extra-base hits 20 of them home runs. He had a strong chase rate, and a big increase in his exit velocity, which was still the high end of average. His strikeout percent is just a bit higher than you want it to be less than a tenth of a percent but cutoffs are cutoffs. When I see the strikeout and walk percentages along with the chase rate I worry that Dreiling might be a bit passive. The other concern is he is likely a left fielder or DH going forward so it limits his value too. I think he can be a solid hitter going forward, likely on base focused with enough power to get by. He doesn't profile as an impact player but one that can likely help a team down the line.
55 Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny HS (IA) Committed to Iowa
In the fall I thought Joey Oakie and Levi Sterling might end up being the top prep arms in the class again showing I know nothing. Joey Oakie is following the Brody Brecht path from Ankeny to Iowa. He had a very late start to his season and then reports on his usage have been troubling as well. Oakie looks a little smaller than his 6’3” height and while he is a strong kid he just never has felt a bit smaller. His fastball and slider both flash as plus pitches. Right now they are all he has needed and his changeup is well behind them. He might be a reliever long-term as the delivery also has some effort in it which combined with his current pitch mix makes sense. His slider is one of the best pitches of any high school kid I watched this year. With his slider and fastball, it will be tempting for a team to think they can maximize Oakie’s potential. He could be a solid number two if you continue to develop those pitches and add a usable change. There is a lot of risk here, but the ceiling is quite high for Oakie.
56 Caleb Bonemer, 3B, Okemos HS (MI) Committed to Virginia
After a strong summer, Caleb Bonemer was a top-20 prospect on every board. His combination of power and speed had people excited. He stood out at the Area Code Games as well with big-time performances. This spring facing lesser competition it has been a different story with reports of constant swing changes and adjustments and just general struggles. The traits and tools are there, he might have just gotten too into his head about the draft. His bat speed is a standout tool and he uses it to generate elite exit velocities. He is also a plus runner with a strong arm. He is likely to grow out of shortstop and end up at third and his speed might move closer to average but I have no doubt he could play third. The physical tools still standout and if you can coach him up, he could be an absolute steal. He is the same game physically that some people had as the number two prep player in this class. He just needs coaching and refinement.
57 Sean Keys, 1B, Bucknell
Sean Keys is a player who is going to go a lot higher on draft night than I think a lot of people expect. He excelled in the Cape last year facing top competition. Then he was one of the few players in the batted ball database to get a dark green score, our highest tier, in contact, chase, and 90th percentile exit velocity. He also turned 21 at the end of May making him a younger junior for his class. He is a New York kid who played at Bucknell, Pennsylvania, so he has always been a cold-weather bat. He is also a mechanical engineering major, meaning he is a very smart kid who will have no issues adapting to more analytical and advanced approaches to hitting. These points are all things teams look for in terms of a player having more growth potential than typical. One could add in being a small school guy but that is both a plus and minus for a player meaning that outside of the Cape, he didn’t face a lot of future minor league players let alone future Major League talent. He hit over .400 and walked more than he struck out, but it is hard to gauge how much one can take from those stats. There are also some positional questions about him and he likely ends up at first long-term. There are a multitude of reasons to think Keys is trending upward and I would not be surprised at all if he ended up a second-round pick, especially if it allows a team to shift some pool money around much like another small school batted ball darling Mike Boeve a year ago.
58 Luke Sinnard, RHP, Indiana
Luke Sinnard missed all of 2024 with an injury but was healthy enough to show up at the combine and remind everyone how good he looked in 2023. The big set the Indiana college record for strikes in 2023 with 114 while only walking 25. He was pulled after the second inning of their 2023 NCAA tournament game and would go on to have elbow surgery. While that was a negative it came after a hugely successful year for the Western Kentucky transfer. Sinnard can throw now, and any team that drafts him might view it as advantageous that he is the rare college pitcher who can go out and log a bunch of innings this summer. While Cade Obermuller had the three best spin rates on day one of the combine it was Sinnard who had the most top 10 spin rate pitches with four. Again this is a player who is coming off injury so there is a chance as he gets reacclimated his rates could improve. His strikeout per nine last year was nearly 12 and his walks per nine were under 3. I mentioned he is big, and that buries the lead a bit. He is 6’8” and 250 pounds. With his size and extension, his fastball which sits low 90s and touches mid feels a lot faster. His curveball and slider both have exceptional spin and he has a history of commanding all three pitches. Players with his size normally scare me, but mechanically he has looked sound in the past and manages to keep all his levers in unison. There might also be some work to one to try and maximize his profile, but he looks the part of a potential mid-rotation starter.
59 Corey Collins, 1B, Georgia
Corey Collins is a buy-low senior sign who stands out to me. Back in 2020, he was a top 100 player on nearly every board as an offensive catcher. He gets to Georgia which has struggled with development and had lots of turnover while he was there. He broke out as a senior which is always a concern but the reasons he was a top 100 guy as a high schooler are still there. He led the SEC in on-base percentage for most of the year. He walked nearly twice as much as he struck out, which is amazing when you consider no one wanted to walk him with Charlie Condon hitting behind him. He rarely chased and had good exit velocity as well. He had some health issues in college. As much as I would love to see him try catching again it has been a few years and that boat has sailed. We know why Corey Collins struggled and fell from where he was back in 2020. We also know that he knew why, worked on his game, and combined performance and batted ball data to show teams why he should be taken. I always like buying low on former top prospects, especially ones who seem to have figured it out.
60 Tommy White, 1B, LSU
It is a bit unfair for Tommy White who made himself a folk hero out of the gate as a freshman at NC State. He set a new freshman home run record and became the herald for everything that was about to change in terms of offense in college baseball. The problem is he never really matched that freshman year production and his junior year was arguably his worst. On top of his worst slugging percentage, his exit velocities were down as well which is something that is unusual to see in most juniors. He did hurt his shoulder, which will require surgery after being drafted, which explains the drop for him. Yet it also means that he is a player you are drafting who will go under the knife, always a concern. He is a high-contact hitter who doesn’t walk or strike out a lot, but he does chase at a very high rate. He had the 12th highest chase rate and among those 12 he had the fourth lowest 90th percentile exit velocity. Chase rates rarely improve, and often get worse guys with chase rates over 30 have mostly failed to translate to the majors. There are exceptions to the rule, but it is the exception, not the expectation. White being a first base-only player, who needs surgery, and has high chase rates is one I am going to be lower than the field on. The rate of success between position and chase is too much of a risk power or not.
61 Griff O’Ferrall, Util, Virginia
At the start of the year, Griff O’Ferrall was one of the hottest names, due to swing changes he was hitting home runs and dominating weaker teams. Then the bottom fell out on the year. He has extremely weird batted-ball data. He has a bottom five 90th percentile exit velocity with 99.8 that's below what is typically viewed as usable for major league talent. He did this while also having a very high chase rate of nearly 32 percent. He doesn’t strike out or walk, which has been a hallmark of Virginia hitters for years. He did manage the 4th best contact rate among draft hitters which is a saving grace. His BABIPs have been strong as well, which for college hitters is typically a sign of good contact as well as a strong hit tool. The chase and power are big concerns. He is more of a utility guy who can play all over for me than a shortstop which is what he has been in college. He is a player who gets praised for toughness, instincts, etc. He looks like a future backup right, but he might also be the rare kid due to the down year that might benefit from returning to school and showing last year was a mirage. Or maybe a team will pay him and have him revert to his previous swing. I am all about swing changes and maximizing a player's ability, but a swing change for more doesn’t work with the exit velocities he posted.
Players That Intrigue Me
Rafe Perich, 3B, Lehigh
Rafe Perich has played for Lehigh for the past 7 years. He went to Northwestern Lehigh High School and then moved to Lehigh University. Perich has a lot in common with Sean Keys. He is another Patriot League player with some of the best-batted ball data in the class. His batted ball data is better than Keys was this past year. He is also bigger and a much better defender at third base. The reason he is lower is a lack of summer data as well as being a full year older than Keys. Everything statistically jumped for Perich this year showing big-time exit velocities on top of high contact rates. He didn’t hit a ton of home runs despite some of the better exit velocity in the country. He hit 15 over three years which is half as many as summer hitters had this year. This leads me to wonder if he is a candidate for some swing changes to allow his high exit velocities to lead to more power. With Perich being 22 already he could be a preferred money-saving target for a team that thinks there could be more to unlock. His batted ball data is what brought him to my attention. It is what will see him drafted as well.
Cade Townsend, RHP, Santa Margarita Catholic HS (CA) Committed to Mississippi
Cade Townsend is the type of pitcher a decade ago would have been headed to school. He is an undersized right-handed pitcher who has good but not great velocity. He is also an older prep player. He turned 19 in May at which point there were some college juniors who were still 20. What makes one look past all of this is the dude can spin everything. His curveball and slider both stood out at the MLB draft combine. Of the nine highest spin rate pitches on day two of the combine he threw six of them. Now the downside to that movement is that there have been some points where he struggles to get those pitches in the zone. There is a lot of risk and reward here. The potential for multiple plus pitches but he also needs a lot of time in terms of his refinement. The risk is high when you see a player with command issues, but the chance to have multiple 60-offspeed pitches also makes it hard to ignore Townsend.
Nathan Flewelling, C, Ecole Secondaire Notre Dame HS (CN) Committed to Gonzaga
Every year there are a few Canadian players who stand out. Flewelling is the one post the draft combine I had to sit down and research. He had the hardest exit velocity on day one of the draft combine, not what one expects for also one of the youngest players at the combine. Flewelling will be a guy who pops to any model-based team. He will not turn 18 until November. His 112.4 exit velocity will also be something teams sit and take notice too. His pop times and arm are both good for the catcher position and provide a chance for him to stay there. He doesn’t have the biggest commitment either which is a benefit for teams looking to sign him in terms of leverage. While he is graduating early he is not slated to attend Gonzaga until 2025 which screams to me a player who wants to sign. He comes from Alberta and had not gotten much attention, but the combine put him on the map. I expect his ability to be a potential catcher with plus power potential will hear his name called on day two. The fact he might be the youngest player in this class also makes him jump out quite a bit. Here is the case of the rare pop-up hitter, it is more due to exposure than anything else.
Joseph Sullivan, OF, South Alabama
Will Turner was supposed to be the player to watch from South Alabama and he might still be. The issue is it was Sullivan who grabbed my attention. Both Turner and Sullivan had down years this year for South Alabama. For Sullivan, this was due to a wrist injury which caused him to miss nearly a month. Sullivan though is just an interesting story and a player who popped at the combine as well. Sullivan’s grandfather Patrick Sullivan was the Heisman Trophy winner in 1971 for Auburn. His father also a Patrick Sullivan, leading to some confusion, went on to play college football at Auburn and TCU. Joseph Sullivan as one might expect is a good athlete. He is a center fielder with speed, so it was a bit of a surprise when he showed up on day one of the combine and had three of the hardest-hit balls as well as two of the longest hits. His exit velocities that were recorded this year were strong, but not one of the players I was expecting to have multiple of the ten best of the day. He also didn’t chase much this year though his contact rates were middling. Sullivan also is an older player in the class turning 22 at the start of July. This means he might be an interesting money-saving candidate due to his athletic profile. There is some power and speed and the ability to handle all three outfield spots with a chance for more. This potential growth is what made me write him up and drew my overall attention this year.
Connor Foley, RHP, Indiana
Indiana has started to put out a pitcher or two every year into the MLB draft. Most people have Connor Foley higher than Luke Sinnard but both players should hear their names on day two. Foley is not as big as Sinnard but still a solid 6’5” and 235 pounds. He is a good athlete who was an All-State tight end as a senior and all-conference basketball player in high school. He turns 21 right after the draft making him sophomore-eligible. Foley struggles with his command and control; he walked a ton of batters and was also home run prone, but so was like every pitcher this year. His fastball is special between the velocity and break on it might be a 70-grade pitch. His secondary offerings aren’t too much which is why I think he might be a candidate to turn into a reliever. There is growth potential, but the overall profile looks more reliever than a starter.
Marcus Morgan, RHP, Iowa
Marcus Morgan is the guy you want your team to draft on day two if they are good at refinement and development of pitchers. He threw five different pitches at Iowa which is too many. He regressed and massively struggled with his control and his command. His fastball was in the mid-90s but Iowa decided they didn’t want pitchers throwing fastball this year. Iowa had arguably the most talented weekend rotation in terms of the draft in college baseball. Every single pitcher got worse and was over messed with. I see a player whose traits fly off the page and has pretty clear reasons why he was not successful. I also very much buried the lead here as Morgan is one of the most athletic players in the entire draft. He could have played college football or basketball but he chose baseball. His sister played in the WNBA and his brother in the G league and overseas. He is an elite athlete from a family of elite athletes. He went to a program that frankly seemed to squander talent. I want my team to draft Morgan between his clean delivery and athleticism and so should you.
Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
Iowa is a school that had three potential day-one picks and now two of them are listed in the 200s on the MLB.com board. All three were in the top 100 when the first board dropped. Obermueller is the son of Wes, who was a high pick and bounced around the majors for a bit. Case is likely a reliever but could be a good one as a lefty. He showed up at the combine with some of the best spin rates of any pitcher in the class. He showed three pitches this year but struggled with his command and control, a common theme when it comes to Iowa arms. He is a draft-eligible sophomore so maybe there is a chance he goes back to school, but after his showing at the combine, I think a team jumps on his fastball/slider combo on day two of the draft.
Jared Jones, 1B, LSU
Two years ago I had Jones going in the top 20 picks of my way-too-early mock as an athletic catcher. At LSU he has settled into first base and seems likely to stay there. He might have the best raw power in the college class and posted some of the best data in terms of exit velocities at the MLB combine. He has a lot of batted ball data that is similar to Dakota Jordan another draft-eligible sophomore, Jordan has great athletic traits but Jones has as much power but with less chase but worse contact rates. He has big-time power but also big-time swing and miss. It's an all-or-nothing power profile right now but the power is prodigious.
Will Taylor, OF, Clemson
Will Taylor was the highest-rated player on my board in 2021 to make it to school. He was committed to both the football team and the baseball team. He tore his ACL as a freshman and multiple surgeries later he gave up the sport after just seven catches. He committed to baseball full-time as a junior. He had a very slow start to the year struggling to hit over .200 out of the gate. I am not sure if he was pressing or trying too hard but he eventually turned it around. Out of high school his calling card was speed, this year I saw mixed reports on him from plus to average. There is some positional debate if he could handle center going forward. He was stuck in left because Clemson has an elite centerfielder. He had the 10th-best chase rate but also bad contact rates. He came into the year fighting for the first round and now is a day two guy. But all it takes is one scout and one team to think there is more here. Taylor was a consensus top 30 player in the 2021 draft. If you bought in big then maybe you view this as a chance to sign a guy from a few hundred thousand who would have cost millions out of high school. Some teams have been successful in finding talent that didn’t develop properly and help the player maximize their abilities. By all accounts, Taylor is a smart, hard-working kid with good instincts for the game. If you want to bet on a fallen talent here is the kid to do it.
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