This is the year where I finally want to break my top prospects into tiers. I have talked about it for years and now is the perfect year to do so. These tiers are just to show where I found a delineation in value or in terms of grouping. It shows when I think there are bigger and smaller gaps in the listing. For those who have never read my work before I tend to be more conservative leaving into safer player builds and using numerical molds that have proven successful in the past. This does not mean I don’t change and evolve but it does mean that my boards can be predictable and more risk-averse. I also try when I have information on money to make that part of the valuation. Let's face it if two guys are of equal talent or nearly equal talent and one costs a million less that is a huge deal and changes the overall amount of talent a team could land.
Ok, so two notes here at the top. The first is that this is all being done sans editor, being dyslexic this whole writing without a net has been kind of terrifying for me and is part of the reason my amount of writing has declined in general combined with it not being a job, podcasting, and starting a family. Still, I enjoy talking about the draft and continue to grind just for fun with it. So I will be posting my thoughts here. There will just be one evolving and changing board. I am writing up players as I get a chance to watch, read reports, and chat with people. I will post those down here and move players around as I see more, and write more so consider this a Big Board in pieces. Thank you to all who read and share every eye helps. If you would like to run any part of this on your site contact me as well.
Tier 1
1 Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
I am not sure I have seen a hitter so consistently dominate the SEC in my time writing and covering baseball. There is no real flaw to his game, I wonder if he could be league average in the majors right now. He has an advanced approach, strong pop, good speed, and should be able to stick in center field. He is a better athlete than he gets credit for and has strong physical data in general dating back to high school. If there are any knocks it would be his size being six feet tall as well as being a good but not elite athlete. It's not just the production though the little batted ball data that has leaked out has also put him in elite groups on top of elite production which makes him one of the safest players I can recall with elite upside. The only player I can recall approaching this profile was Adley Rutchsman.
2 Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
Paul Skenes has been just as dominant as Crews and I understand why there is debate between the two. His performance in the SEC makes me believe he should start next year in AA with a chance to be in AAA some time in 2025. When there are two prospects this close I have to consider the total impact. While Skenes has been healthy, the plain and simple fact is that very few pitchers, especially ones who throw as hard as he does, manage to avoid injuries. If I have two elite talents at the top of the draft I lean towards the hitter over the pitcher just due to risk. Skenes and Crews are both elite, Crews has a longer track record and a better chance at consistent production.
Tier 2
3 Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
Wyatt Langford in a lot of years would get a lot more run for the top pick in the draft. He is a potential centerfielder with great production and tools. The problem is he is behind the best-hitting prospect in my time as a draft writer and the top pitching prospect in a very long time. For a team with a top-three pick if you don’t take one of these top-three guys then you are getting too cute. He hit for a little less power this year, but that is picking nits in terms of a player with plus power and speed as long as a great approach and swing. Last year he would have been the top player on my board.
Tier 3
4 Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC) Committed to North Carolina
There was some debate for me here just tending to favor the general safety of college players and this being a great draft for college performers. Yet the fact I stuck with Jenkins says a lot about how good of a prospect he is. There are a lot of similarities for me when I read his reports and Dylan Crews three years ago except Jenkins is bigger, and a better athlete. The tools are above average to double plus across the board with no real weakness. The approach gives me confidence in him becoming an elite MLB outfielder with an outside chance for him to play center.
5 Matt Shaw, 2B/3B, Maryland
Over the years I learned to be bold when you like a guy. Sometimes it has worked for me, Sean Murphy, and other times not so much, Tristan Pompey. The important thing is to pay attention to why those worked and failed. Some traits seem to come together to show future success for a player. One is success in the Cape, another is production but specifically low strikeout data along with strong BABIPs, and walking more than striking out. While his BABIPs are not spectacular everything else is strong. I think there is a chance for a plus hit/power profile while playing second or third. The bat will play anywhere. I know most places are lower on Shaw but I am not sure why plus run, power, and hit is not a top-five talent when backed up with production across metal and wood bat leagues.
6 Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS (IN) Committed to Vanderbilt
Max Clark reminds me a bit of Clint Frazier in terms of size and maxed-out physic before hitting college. Both were also talked about for their bat speed and how it could lead to power long term. Clark has better physical tools overall. Every single write-up also mentions his work ethic, and while I don’t question it I do feel like those kids who are more jacked always get that comment. The appeal and why he is a top talent to me are the physical traits, performance when facing top competition, and looking like a no doubt future plus centerfielder. The bat looks like it would play anywhere, but the chance to get a plus hit and plus defense center fielder is increasingly rare with five such players in 2022.
7 Tommy Troy, 2B/3B, Stanford
Tommy Troy hits, and hits, and hits. I feel like you could drop him into AA and he would adapt and hit. He excelled on the Cape last year and then took it to a new level at Stanford adding 17 home runs as well. BABIP has been shown to be an excellent indicator of future hit success as higher totals against lower competition often reflect quality contact. Troy's last two years at Stanford he has been a hitting machine with BABIPs that show he is likely to continue hitting. He had a power explosion this year but I don’t think his power projects out to be more than average. One has to figure out a position as he is unlikely to stay at short but could potentially play second, third, or maybe center. The contact skills with average power are what puts him here on my board. He looks like a safe bet to move quickly and make an impact in the majors. His swing does have enough launch angle that he could find more power than I am giving him credit for.
8 Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (FL), Florida State
In terms of upside, Nimmala is not that far off from Jenkins and Clark, and the gap after the first three prep bats is large to me. Nimmala has some of the best power in this class in terms of raw power he has the exit velocities of any prep player and his swing is very clean and allows him to already tap into his power and points to future plus or plus-plus power. He is just 17 and won’t be 18 until October. Now he is a step below the top two due to being not quite the same well-rounded athlete as well as more concerns about the approach at the plate. I am not sure if he will stay at shortstop if he gets stronger and with an average arm he would likely shift to second. He is a bit of a free swinger as well which can be an issue for young players with excellent power. The chance to land a plus power-hitting shortstop pushes up Nimmala as the ceiling for him is just higher than anyone else on the board at this point.
9 Kyle Teel, C, UVA
I am very, very conflicted when it comes to Kyle Teel. On one side I look at the production, scouting reports, and plus athleticism behind the plate. The fact he is a college catcher who can stay there and is a plus athlete should allow him to stay healthy and nothing is harder to find in baseball than catching. On the other side is Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Mike Papi, etc. Virginia hitters fail. The five best hitters in program history are Ryan Zimmerman, Chris Taylor, Mark Reynolds, Mike Cubbage, and Brandon Guyer. For a program with a lot of players drafted that is a weird draft, Virginia hitters have struggled so badly that it has made me averse to the program as something feels wrong in development. If this sounds familiar I wrote something similar for Smith and Haseley where I had them outside of my top 10 but stated that if they played elsewhere they would be higher. Hoping Teel proves me wrong but right now when I see Virginia I have major doubts.
10 Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss
Everyone is down on Gonzalez including me! He was widely considered to be a top-five talent heading into the year as a no-doubt shortstop who never strikes out and had some surprising pop. He has three years of excellent production in the SEC. While he is not a great athlete he is a smart kid who fields his position well and most think can stay at short. While his home run total did drop one has to note his slugging stayed identical as those home runs turned into doubles. He has such a safe profile in terms of position and his eye at the plate and general contact skills. He has average pop which is shown by doubles sometimes being home runs and sometimes not. One could work with him on the swing to unlock more consistent power but I am not sure you want to mess with what is his money maker. Gonzalez is the anti-Nimmala. His ceiling is lower than a lot of players I am yet to talk about, but the floor well he has the skills down that are often the most likely to cause a player to fail. He should be a solid shortstop. I don’t think he will be a star but he should move quickly and play for a team at a very valuable position. He dropped frankly due to not having one plus trait but just being a good baseball player.
11 Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
It is interesting to take and compare Lowder and Gonzalez. Due to Gonzalez having had more success and hype, this was a down year for him even though he was still a strong player. Loweder came in viewed more as a mid-round guy and found runway for improvement and is likely to go in the top ten. I am a little lower as pitchers who leave Wake are often going to worse coaching situations and with the recent high picks from Wake, we have yet to see a pitcher translate. Heck, Stuart Fairchild is the only Wake player with 1 bWAR or better in the last 20 years. Fun Fact at a 1 exactly Fairchild is 4th all-time for Wake players behind Erik Hanson, Mike MacDougal, and Dave Bush. The interesting thing for Cusick and Shuster as they both had control issues when coming to Wake and while Shuster’s looked like it improved as a junior he has still had control issues as a pro. Lowder has never had control issues command and control are the things he does well. I see a solid mid-rotation starter with him that should move quickly through the minors and could challenge Skenes to be the first pitcher to the majors. I also don’t see much growth potential for him, he kind of is what he is. So much like Gonzalez above the ceiling isn’t as high but the floor, bearing injury, is safer and he should be able to help a team quickly.
12 Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Before the year began the debate wasn’t Skenes vs Crews it was Crews vs Dollander. Before last year's draft, I said either of them would likely go number one in the 2022 class after what they had shown as sophomores. Then Dollander’s performance this year likely cost him millions of dollars. The question is what happened to his slider? It went from his best offering to mid. In general, he lost the ability to command and control all of his pitches as well. Did he mess with his mechanics? Is there an injury he pitched through? Was there an issue at Tennessee that explains his stuff backing up along with Chase Burns deciding to enter the transfer portal? Lowder above is a lot safer, but Dollander has a higher ceiling. Drafting him is betting on pitching development, college pitching coaching in general not being great, and likely already knowing what needs to be done to get Dollander back to last year's model. I should also point out what I could infer from the information that leaked out about advanced data, I don’t think Dollander necessarily has the best shape and RPMs on some of his pitches. So pay attention if he slides into the 20s then there is likely advanced data we don’t have which would show that this year was closer to the real Dollander.
Tier 4
13 Blake Mitchell, C, Stinton HS (TX) Committed to LSU
It feels a little off, putting a prep catcher this high as they are often riskier than even prep pitchers. Part of this is how long it takes to develop at the position in general which leads to some of the better prep hitters moving off of the position to get them to the majors quicker. So when a player is as good an athlete as Mitchell and has the chance to stick at catcher one can’t help but wonder if he will be given the chance to stay there. Mitchell was a catcher, shortstop, and pitcher in school. He has 80-grade hair and some of the best exit velocities among prep hitters. He has plenty of the arm for a catcher hitting 97 as a pitcher. He should be able to stick behind the plate and offer plus potential power. Look at the state of catching in baseball those two traits would lead to him being a top 5 player at the position.
14 Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
Before the year began I would have never expected Taylor to be this high. He was the opposite of my guy, as I was significantly lower than the consensus. The reason was while he had a strong approach and good performances the exit velocities and hard-hit data were not great. He must have known this himself and came back this year and proved that he could not only hit the ball hard but do it regularly. He now looks like a guy with above-average hit and power who should be able to stick at third. He is not fast but an intelligent base runner who has never been caught in college and has a chance with the new rules of stealing 15 or so a year. I don’t always love the guys who do a bit of everything but don’t have a plus tool but Taylor the more I watch the more I like.
15 Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Florida asked Waldrep to through his fastball all the dang time. His fastball has velocity but it is not a great pitch, his best offerings are his secondaries which are both plus potential offerings. The plan would not lead to success. We have seen former Florida arms talk about a very rigid structure and expectations for their arms. We have seen teams gobble up falling Florida arms and try to “fix” them. Teams see the Florida program as one that is not great for development and hence will not put as much weight into the statistical performance of the pitchers. They are looking at traits, not stats. Waldrep has a chance to be a two or three-starter if he gets taken by the right team and is allowed to lean heavily on secondaries and works with him on fastball shape. Right now he is a bucket of pitches, with some help he could be turned into a very good starting pitcher.
16 Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt
Bradfield is the best defender in this class and also likely the fastest runner. If he doesn’t get hurt he should be able to at least be what Myles Straw is now and he has been a major leaguer for a couple of years. Bradfield is faster with a chance to be a better defender though without the same level of arm. Bradfield shows a good eye at the plate with a high walk rate and not striking out. He does seem a little passive at the plate and his swing needs work which sounds like he knows as well based on interviews I saw. There is why he is 14 and not top 10. There is almost no route for him to not be a big-league outfielder with his speed and defensive profile. At worst, he could carve a long career as Terence Gore or Jarrod Dyson. The problem right now without some swing changes I am not sure he is a two-win or more player. If you trust your hitting develop one could land a steal. It is very hard to find centerfielders who are just average defenders and hitters, knowing the floor puts Bradfield here on my board.
17 Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
Brock Wilken has always been known for his power potential and production. He was extremely productive in the Cape in 2021 and between that and his big freshman year his sophomore year was a bit disappointing. He rebounded massively this year with a big jump in power production along with a decrease in strikeouts and nearly doubling his walk rate. Wilken is a young junior having been 17-year-old as a high school player on draft day. He has a strong arm and while he is not a plus athlete most expect him to be able to stick at third base long-term. The bet is that he will be a three outcomes player with plus power. As mentioned before the history of Wake players is not great and especially bad for Wake hitters, Wilken is the best prospect hitting-wise since Will Craig another power-hitting third baseman. One thing that massively separates the two were performances on the Cape.
18 Chase Davis, OF, Arizona
Chase Davis has been a famous name since high school where he was a tools over production player. He had a solid sophomore year but found a new gear as a junior. Davis’s swing has also made fans of scouts and this year he took his pretty swing and had one of the best years of any hitter in the country. He had excellent batted ball data as well throughout the year. There is a chance he could play centerfield long-term and be above average defender there. My concerns come from struggles on the Cape as well as the environment he plays in. Arizona is an environment that often sees players perform much, much better than the actual skill set. While Davis was a top-10 hitter all year one has to frame it with the knowledge of where he plays. This might end up being a rating too low. Davis could end up plus hit and plus power centerfielder which would make him one of the five best centerfielders in baseball which would give him incredible future value.
19 Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS (GA) Committed to Miss State
You might have heard that Houck was a highly recruited football player and could have played quarterback from more than a few college programs this fall. He has given up football to focus on baseball. As one might expect Houck is a strongly built player with a strong arm, good speed, and natural strength. He is more a guy with 55s across the board than 60s but one can hope that as he matures that his power could become a plus trait. The thought with him is that if he gets too big that maybe long term he ends up at third, but that the bat would play at third or short due to his power production. He has a better feel to hit than Nimmala but doesn’t have Nimmala’s ridiculous power potential. He is safer but there is still the upside of a major athlete focusing on baseball for the first time and what he could become.
20 Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (FL) Committed to Arkansas
I and many others are likely guilty of discounting Miller a bit after he lost most of his senior year to a hamate injury. For a player whose focus is power having an injury that hurts power felt a bit ironic. Miller has easy plus power, some of the best in the prep class up there with Jenkins and Nimmala. He also fits well into one of my baseball theories that younger brothers outperform older brothers as Miller’s brother was a second-rounder for the Reds in 2020. There is a chance that as he gets older that he might move to first or the outfield. The bet here is on his big-time power.
Tier 5
21 Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska
Brice Matthews entered the year as the second biggest prospect on his team after Max Anderson had a strong Cape. I think after the year Matthews had if he had played in the Cape instead of the Northwoods he would be getting more first-round run. He is a former all-state quarterback from Texas, we all know how good one has to be there to get that label. I still don’t understand how he ended up in the Northwood league unless it was by choice as he dominated it after his freshman year and then went back and was even better after his sophomore year. There is no doubt he can handle short and be a plus defender, heck he could likely move to centerfield and also be plus there. His arm is a legit weapon defensively. He has some of the best bat speed in the college group, and projects for plus power and plus run long term. I am a broken record at this point but swing-and-miss concerns are what are dropping him. It should be pointed out how much he has grown this year dropping his strikeout percentage dropped 31% this year while nearly tripling his power. There are a lot of late growth potential signs, and every report on him is glowing. I am betting on Matthews being one of the steals of this draft as the power and speed are legit and he is a player on the rise. He is a four-tool talent and just needs to hit enough to be an impact player. Doubt at your own risk!
22 Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B, Huntington Beach HS (CA) committed to Arizona State
This draft is very weak at catcher and Velaquez is one of the few who has a chance to sneak into the first round after Mitchell and Teel. He is barrel-chested in the best way possible. He posted good pop times and has a strong arm behind the plate. There is a chance for him to be a solid defender back there. His exit velocities are fantastic and show a catcher with plus power potential. He does a good job barrelling the ball and looks like a potential plus offensive profile in general. His bat would play anywhere, if he can stick behind the plate then it's a special offensive profile. As we get closer and closer to robot umps, a player like Velaquez only gets more valuable. There is debate if he can stay at catcher, but zero debate about him as a hitter.
23 Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR) Committed to Oregon
I know I am much lower than the consensus here on Meyer is what you look for in a top prep arm. He is big, throws hard, and shows useable developmental secondaries. I just do not believe one should take prep arms high. When I look at 20 years of draft data and was looking at prep arms in general who got at least 6 bWAR which is three league average years the percentage among the top 15 picks, the top players, in their class was 28 percent one of the worst of any group. I just feel like there is too much of a risk when it comes to prep arms. So while Meyer is a strong prospect he is one I am willing to let someone else take. We have seen in recent years that there is more ceiling in college arms taken from bad developmental programs with a lot less risk as well. Meyer is a very good pitching prospect but one I let someone else take.
24 George Lombard Jr., OF, Gulliver HS (FL) Committed to Vandy
The son of current Tigers bench coach and former player Steve Lombard, I kid, George Lombard. He is bigger than his dad, and his power is the trait that stands out. He is considered to have some of the better power potential in this prep class. The big question is position where some think he is a no-doubt shortstop. I think he likely moves to the outfield with leftfield being his likely home due to his arm being his weakest tool. He runs well now but the thought is that he will grow into his frame and add more muscle, he is pretty willowy, his power could become plus-plus and then he would likely be limited to left field. Right now it's plus power projection with current plus run. He is also young for the class just having turned 18 in June. Lombard is a bet on ceiling, but also bloodlines. He grew up the son of a coach/ pro player and has been around baseball his whole life. I am betting on power while maintaining a degree of his athleticism allowing him to become an impact player.
25 Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State
In his first two years at Purdue Whitman appear in 14 games for a total of 5.2 innings essentially working as a loogy. He gets to Kent State has 81 innings over 15 starts and for my money is not just the top lefty college starter but the top lefty in general in this class. There is some reliever risk, but there is also a lot of room for growth in his arm and his stuff in general. He is a big kid who touches 97 and mixes in a plus slider. There have been no health issues and he showed some impressive growth from last summer and into this season. His changeup looks like a solid third offering and I see the arrow pointing up. There is reliever risk but a chance for a very good one if things don’t work out as a starter.
26 Nazzan Zantello, SS, Christian Brothers College (MO), Committed to Arkansas
Nazzan Zantello on top of having the most Z’s in a name of any draft prospect that I have written about also is one of the twitichiest players I have watched. He is another player who popped at the combine, which should be no surprise for a guy with the physical traits he has. He posted elite exit velocities, which combined with just how quick his bat is should allow him to produce plus power. He is currently also a plus runner, the question is as he gets stronger and thicker will he stay a plus runner? I trust the power as it's such a quick, efficient swing that should lead to 20-plus home run power. The question is will he stay at short or potentially move to center or third. I am a big believer and think he could be one of the steals of the draft as he is projected more as a second-round value but I think the power/speed combo and just the easy power in his swing should make him a first-round prospect.
27 Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Jack Hurley is hard to elevate as Virginia Tech is a team that plays in a very hitter friend park so while he was up to 17 home runs this year he had a pretty big home advantage. My bigger concern is he seemed to sell out for power this year which saw him have small decreases in walk rate and an increase in strikeout percentage. Typically for players, we see these numbers go the opposite way as a player matures in college. His BABIp along data show a player with a potential hit plus tool, and with his power, there is some five-tool potential though he also has some swing and miss which is a constant theme for this draft. His best tool is his defense in centerfield where he profile as a plus player. So when you look at his projected hit tool and his general production he feels like a rather safe bet in this class especially towards the back of round one.
28 Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton HS (AZ) Committed to UCLA
One might be able to tell that this is a pretty deep prep shortstop class. There are a likely 10 or so in my top 50. I don’t project them all to stay there, but many should get every chance to stick. One guy I am sure will stay there is Rock Cholowsky. His dad is a scout and former player, so he has bloodlines as a bonus. The driving factor is his defense, he is a complete defender with a strong arm. On top of being a top baseball player, he is also a three-star recruit at quarterback and might try to play both sports at UCLA. His best physical tool is his speed, but at the combine, he showed that he could also post some elite exit velocities. One can’t help but wonder what he might be able to do when he focuses on baseball full-time. The athecistism as well as his defense at short make him a pretty safe bet to be a major league player in some form. The hope is for a plus starter, but there is a good floor of a utility infielder if things don’t break right.
29 Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
Jacob Wilson is the son of Jack Wilson and reminds me of his father. Jacob had one of the lowest strikeout percentages in the country over the last two years, but one has to balance this out with the level of competition he played against. He has never been someone with great exit velocities and while he did hit 12 homers it was in a very hitter-friendly environment. I think he projects for below-average power, hit contact, and solid defense at shortstop. He should be a league, averagish shortstop. Not a top 10 guy but just outside of that to me. I am lower than most but I just don’t see a route to him being more than a 3-win player.
30 Colton Ledbetter, OF, Miss State
I think one of the more surprising things I learned this year is just how many Ledbetters there are in Baseball Cube’s history. Ledbetter stepped into the Mississippi State lineup and become one of their better hitters after starting his career at Samford. He was awesome in the early, easy, part of the schedule. Once he got into the SEC season things didn’t go quite as well. He still has very easy power, which is in part due to bat speed and also natural strength. He is a better athlete than he gets credit for and has a chance to stick at centerfielder though I think the bat could play in the corners as well. If he does move leftfield is his likely home which limits his value. He could be a potential 20/20 guy and with the lack of major college experience until this year there is a chance for more growth potential.
31 Cooper Pratt, SS, Magnolia Heights HS (MS) committed to Ole Miss
Cooper Pratt is my last capsule this draft season. I left him for last because he is such a solid player I knew he would make it in the top 50. But doesn’t have one skill that was going to push him up the board or make me debate where he would be included. He is a contact-over power hitter and has one of the best approaches in the class in terms of contact rates. He is a big kid who could go into power but it seems like he is likely to grow into above-average power not sure he is a future plus power guy due to his contact-based approach. He is a guy who does everything but is widely video to be a master of nothing. If he lives up to being 55 at almost everything he is a borderline star player. There is no real weakness and while he will likely move to third as he is already a tall kid, he should be a plus bat there. I think one is looking at a potential yearly four-win player with a chance for more if he adds a little more loft to the swing without changing his approach.
32 Travis Honeyman, OF, Boston College
Travis Honeyman was hurt for part of the year and I think this has led to him maybe unfairly dropping hugely on boards. In the fall he was darn near a consensus top 20 prospect and outside of health what has changed from his profile? He is an aggressive hitter but doesn't chase. He can deal with velocity without issue. I think he has a chance to unlock some more power with some work on launch angle he can tap into his strength. He has a good feel at the plate and after the Cape looked like a plus hitter. He could end up with plus hit and above-average power which plays, the question is health. He has missed time due to injury every year of college. Part of the reason he might have more growth potential is partially due to missing time due to injuries. The other reason is being a cold-weather kid, from a solid program that doesn’t produce a ton of talent. There is a chance for an average defender in center with a plus offensive profile. That is the type of player that made him a potential top-20 pick, but more injuries, and I understand why people are concerned, is really the only reason he might end up being a great value in round two.
33 Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbil
Thomas White is a big lefty, with a number two type of starter kit. He is a huge human who has hit the upper 90s with some thought he might get to triple digits. His secondary offerings are all a work in progress in terms of consistency but the curve and change both flash plus. There is a chance for three-plus offerings, which could even give him a chance for an ace. There are two reasons a pitcher fails more often than any other command and injuries. While White is well-built, pitchers of his size and velocity have greater risks. His command is the biggest concern I heard when talking with others. He is a literal massive gamble, but if you are betting on upside there is a chance to get a special pitcher later. I mentioned my 20 years of data on top 15 picks and the only thing riskier than a prep lefty was a prep righty so he does have that going for him as he is literally and figuratively head and shoulders above the prep lefty class.
34 Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian (FL) Committed to Central Florida
Charlee Soto is one of the youngest prep pitchers in this class and won’t turn 18 until the end of August. He is a former infielder who has not been pitching that long and is already hitting the upper 90s. He has a very quick arm which is both good and bad. It explains how he generates his velocity but a lot of those whip-quick arms also end up needing surgery. A lot of what I wrote about Thomas White can be reprinted here just change lefty for right. Soto isn't quite as big as White but is still a large human with prototypical size. He features a change and slider which flash plus. He also has the same command problems mentioned before. Righties are more risky than lefties but these are two very similar arms. There is a chance for a special pitcher but the majority of outcomes do not end up with prep arms making the majors.
35 Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA) Committed to Auburn
When one is talking about McGonigle it all comes down to his hit tool. He has an advanced approach and profiles as a plus hitter with average power. There is debate in terms of his future position most think that he will move to second. I think you give him every chance to succeed at short. When I talk about him with others everyone enjoys watching him and sees him as a rather safer hitter in general. He should move quickly for a prep hitter. It might not be the most exciting profile but it is one where it is easy to the route to him being a successful player even with a more limited profile.
Tier 6
36 Jonny Farmerlo, OF, Westfield HS (VA) Committed to UVA
Farmelo is a really impressive athlete, one of the best centerfielders in the prep class. He should also get stronger and grow in potential plus power but even if that happens I think he can stick in center field long-term. He has 70-grade speed. He has consistently performed well. His physical traits are as good as any player not in that top tier of prep talent. It feels like we are just scratching the surface of what he can do and what he will become. He looks the part of a five-tool player.
37 Kemp Alderman, OF, Ole Miss
Kemp Alderman looks like a defensive end, more than a baseball player. Alderman is going to get drafted a lot higher than he is listed on most boards. The reason is the batted ball data is some of the class. He put on a show at the combine but that just confirmed what has leaked out all year that Alderman is one of the best power hitters in the country. He pitched a little this year hitting 94 and also caught some but everyone agrees outfield is his future. Alderman is known for his swing-and-miss and it is the biggest concern for him. But it is also something he worked on and cut down by a third this year. I mention BABIP before being a sign at the college level of good contact rates and hit ability in general and Alderman’s were very strong especially when you consider him as a dude that is not a fast runner by any means. I sometimes see guys get mislabeled as model-based guys, I think Alderman is one due to the production in the SEC, exit velocities, BABIP, and physical traits.
38 Byrce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA), Committed to Alabama
It is interesting when I first heard about Bryce Eldridge it was as a pitcher, but now no one profiles him as anything but a hitter. I think part of that is due to his size. The track record of 6’7” and larger hitters is not good. This is my concern in general with him even though he is a good athlete for his size. Yes, Aaron Judge is a monster, but the reason he slid in his draft year was in part concerned with his size and the mechanic issues that often go with a player that big. I am not sure if he has any trait I feel comfortable labeling as plus outside of power. As a two-way guy, once he focuses on hitting one can expect more growth potential. I am also not the biggest fan of drafting a prep first baseman in general and I know others think he can play outfield but I am not as sure. Still, the power is hard to look past, and in terms of ceiling, he fits into this part of the draft.
39 Mac Horvath, OF, UNC
Mac Hovath is one of the better power/speed prospects in the college ranks. His best trait is his speed and he is a legit plus runner who was stuck at third his first two years at school due to the amount of outfield talent at UNC. Stop me if you have heard this but the big concern for Horvath is swing and miss. At some point is this less a concern and more a developmental issue or the way the game is changing? For as much as he gets dinged for it he didn’t strike out that much in the ACC. His strikeout percentage did rise this year by nearly two percentage points, often we see it decrease as a player progresses so it feels like this could be part of the reason he got dinged. Horvath has spent the last year absolutely murdering baseballs starting at the cape and then extending it to the spring at UNC. Horvath was a 20/20 guy this year and has a strong arm. He can play all three outfielder spots' potential and has a chance at 20/20 seasons in the majors if you think he can hit enough. Hit tool is the hardest to project and for a guy with his speed, he does have low BABIPs which means there are reasons to wonder if he can hit enough to get to his power.
40 Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami University
For years we have been hearing about Yohandy Morales's power potential dating back to 2020 when he had some top ten projections early in the process. But what if he is really hit over power instead of the other way around? His BABIP data over the last two years and this past year in particular shows him to be a very strong hitter there is some swing and miss in his game, like virtually every hitter in this class. His 16 home runs are a good amount but nowhere near the leaders, but his .405 average was closer to the top of the class. He has no doubt plus raw power but has not been able to access it. There is a chance he might not, and that the real carrying tool could be his hit tool. Morales can consistently barrel baseballs, and I am curious to see what he can develop into as it feels like he has stalled a bit in college.
41 Nolan Schanuel, OF, Florida Atlantic
I am lower on Schanuel than everyone else. Yes, he put up video game numbers, but look where he did that. He did what he needed to do in Conference USA to make him a top prospect hitting nearly .450 with a .615 on-base percentage while also launching 19 home runs. I would put more faith in the numbers if the one time he faced top-shelf competition he didn't struggle to hit .200 in the Cape. He did better as the Cape went on, but it is still a poor showing. I know you might tell me about his stats vs. power five times but often those are Tuesday games facing teams fourth or fifth starters. There are no examples I could find of a player who struggled that badly in the Cape finding big-league success. In a class full of players with swing-and-miss issues he stands out as having none.
42 Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (CO) Committed to Arkansas
If I did the research right the last high school player taken in the first round from Colorado was Darnell McDonald in 1997. The 90s were a bonanza in Colorado including 94 which had two prep players from Colorado go in the first. The most famous prep player from Colorado is Roy Holliday another of those 90s first-rounders. Martin looks like he will join this group of players this year after slowly rising all spring. His power is the calling card for him and while he is a good athlete he doesn’t run well nor have the strongest arm so long term he might move to second base. He has bat speed for days and with his exit velos it is easy to project plus power. In what is becoming a common theme the concern here is the swing and miss. The other issue is he is already 19 which makes him on the older side for a high school prospect. This will take him off some age-based models. He is a big gamble not having faced as much elite competition but the power is legit and rare to see in an up-the-middle infielder.
43 Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS (OH) Committed to Auburn
It has been since Matthew Smoral went in the supplementary round in 2012 that Ohio had a first-round prep player, if you want a non-supplemental pick one has to go back to Chad Billingsley in 2003. Emerson will turn 18 a little more than a week after the draft, but he still fits age-based models and got linked to those teams throughout the spring. He is a plus athlete who was a very good football player on top of being the top player in one of the best recent prep classes in Ohio history. He does everything well but doesn’t strike me as having or projecting to have a single plus tool. The drive here is that he is good across the board and might grow into above-average power which also might necessitate moving off short. He is a safer prep prospect, but the ceiling is also limited. He has a ton of potential outcomes, and don’t focus on the lack of a sexy tool but instead on the fact he does everything.
44 Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian HS (GA) Committed to Georgia Tech
Tai Peete is another player who helped himself out at the draft combine, where he showed off a fast bat and power potential to all fields. A former two-way player who was up to 95 on the mound. He has the arm for shortstop but the power potential to play anywhere. He is another player who is young for his class and will not turn 18 until a month after the draft. There is one big concern here that pushes Peete down. Last August he walked off the mound of the East Coast Pro showcase and hasn’t pitched since. There were also some erratic throws and talking to some people there are worries that he might have been playing through an injury. The fact he went to the Combine means he likely got a medical test which should help teams feel better about the elbow. It is still just an odd thing to see it play out how it did. Peete has loud tools across the board. If one feels good about his elbow then you might be getting a steal as he looks like a future shortstop with plus power and plus run. He is more tools than polish so there are multiple concerns but if you told me in a decade he was the top shortstop from this class I would believe it. The ceiling is that high.
45 Sammy Stafura, SS, Panas HS (NY) Committed to Clemson
Stafura is one of the hottest names in the last few weeks leading up to the draft. The New York shortstop seems to gain five spots on boards every time I turned around. He is a no-doubt shortstop who projects plus there. His best trait is his plus-plus speed. There is some debate if he will have power or not, the swing is not geared for it but he has bat speed and exit velocities to think that he could end up with above-average pop. I am not so sure. He looks more like a high-contact hitter who will use the whole field. It is a profile we have seen become more and more en-vogue over the last few years. I am just not sure he has enough hit or power to be more than an average regular. He is a no-doubt shortstop but I just don’t see offensive impact.
46 Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS (IL) Committed to Clemson
If you are looking for the high ceiling toolsy player after the top ten then Head is the guy to look at. He is one of the fast places in this class, with some places giving him an 80 grade. He is a physically strong kid and has bat speed which could allow him to end up with average to above-average power. He is not the biggest kid, so people will often just assume that he is destined to have below-average power but the speed and strength should not be discounted. He is a no-doubt centerfielder for me with an arm that would allow him to play in rightfield. As a kid from a nontraditional draft state, he has not faced as much top-end competition so he tends to be a bit too aggressive. The swing and miss is an issue and could end up with him being more of a platoon bat but the overall traits could also end up with a special talent.
Tier 7
47 Adrian Santana, SS, Doral Academy (FL), Committed to Miami
Adrian Santana is yet another 17-year-old shortstop in this class. I think outside of swing and miss 17-year-old shortstop might be my second most used group of words. Santana is a blazer, one of the fast runners in this class it is far and away his best trait. He is a strong defender at shortstop and one who most think should be a future plus defender there and with his speed can get to pretty much everything. He has bloodlines as his brother is a former minor leaguer with the Brewers, and also aligns with my younger brothers theory that younger brothers often outperform older brothers. He is also a switch hitter which is something I feel like we see less of every year in draft classes. He posted good exit velocities but is a slap hitter and doesn't use that power. Speaking of swing and miss it is an issue for him, which is interesting due to him not being a power hitter. He is incredibly slight right now and needs to add mass and get stronger with his speed and glove he only needs to be a league-average bat to be a sure starter. The question stands if you think there is enough there for him to do so, I lean towards yes hence his ranking.
48 Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
Tanner Witt was my highest-rated undrafted player from the 2020 draft. I thought he was a solid first-rounder as a prep arm. It was he and Carson Montgomery that were the top arms left and both struggled during college. I thought after three years they could challenge to be the top pick instead neither look like first-rounders. Witt is a young for the class junior turning 21 on day three of the draft. His dad Kevin Witt was a first-rounder who pitched in the majors. Witt is a good athlete with a big fastball, an injury history, and a lack of starts due to said injury. He is sadly not much different from the guy I gave a first-round grade three years ago. While that might seem good it also means he lost years of development. He has had 782 college innings just 21.2 of those the last two years and just eight starts. The stuff, delivery, and general athleticism are all there that I loved three years ago. He is the age of a lot of sophomores, and the ceiling is still there to be a mid-rotation starter. I like the gamble on what we have seen and still believe in what he can become
49 Jace Bohrofen, OF, Arkansas
Bohrofen had some talk before the 2020 draft, but like many people, he suffered from the shorter draft and lack of a college season. He started at Oklahoma joining his brother there and both ended up being gone after the 2021 season. He was a part-time player in 2022, before taking over the full-time role in 2023. He blossomed this year and played well in SEC. He has always shown solid power and used to be a solid athlete playing centerfield in the past. One can’t help but wonder if he could be given a chance to play there. I am a believer in his continuing to tap into his power. He has played well in the Cape as well which is something that depending on the team matters more to some. Outside of power, I am not sure there is another plus trait, but I think he should hit enough to tap into the power to make him a potential starter.
50 Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
The recent history of transferring arms to Oklahoma State has not gone great. Watts-Brown started the year great before falling apart as the year went on. Before he got to campus he was one of the best strikeout artists on the Cape. The history of pitchers who are at the top of the strikeout list has been full of first and second-round picks. He is an athletic kid, and there should be more growth potential coming from a smaller school to Oklahoma State. His slider is one of the better ones in the college class, and his curve can flash plus. This is another case of the traits being there instead of production. Teams seem to be focused more on traits over production in this class. In general, we are seeing teams know what programs don’t seem to have as much growth or try to push square pegs into round holes. Despite his struggles, I expect Watts-Brown to end up in the second this year showing four pitches two of which flash plus there is mid-rotation potential.
51 Mitch Jebb SS, Michigan State
Mitch Jebb is the Big Ten version of Jacob Wilson. He has been incredibly hard to strike out with extremely high contact rates. He tried to do too much this year and nearly doubled his strikeout rate from 6 to 11 percent. After a strong Cape set him up for a big year at Michigan State it was a disappointing junior year. As I type this all out I now realize I should write his name in pen to the Guardians in round two. The great Cape, down junior year, plus athlete, cold weather player, a left-handed bat, elite contact rates, and he is a sure shortstop who could play all over the infield. If developed well he should be a guy who could start at second or short steal 40 bases and hit .290 or so while hitting less than 10 home runs. Yup just go ahead and sign him to Cleveland now.
52 Eric Bitoni, SS, Aquinas HS (CA), Committed to Oregon
Bitoni is a fascinating player when you combine his size, youth, and power potential. A lot of people like his swing but it doesn’t seem to be the most efficient one in general and he has a lot of swing and miss to his game. This is a big concern and might cause him to end up at Oregon. His ceiling is high when you look at how much younger he is than the players he competed against. He won’t turn 18 until November and is already 6’4” with bat speed and easy power. He is likely to move to third long-term with his size and ability to add even more muscle. He popped at the draft combine and made me take some time to reevaluate him. I think he has more power than I gave him credit for. If you want cathedral ceilings and basement floors then Bitoni is the guy for you.
53 Cam Fisher, OF, UNC Charlotte
This one could get me in trouble. Cam Fisher is a 22-year-old junior who went undrafted last year. He is at his third college after starting at Ole Miss. He murders fastballs and destroyed everyone he faced at a lower level of competition. He is a better athlete than the typically lower-level masher. He is likely still a left fielder, but it does bring some more value to his profile. He struggled to make contact but still produced on the Cape because he smashed baseballs. He put up absolute video game numbers, but they get disregarded due to the level of competition even though he played in the same conference as Nolan Schanuel has better athleticism, power, wood bat production, and is more likely to play a more valuable position. He is riskier with the swing-and-miss issues as well as being older is a legit concern but I think the gap is not as big as most.
54 Josh Knoth, RHP, Patchque-Medford HS (NY) Committed to Mississippi
Knoth has been a bit of a helium guy late in the process. He is a cold-weather kid and New York Springs can be unkind to baseball so it is no surprise that it took longer for people like myself to warm to him. Time to start with the positives he likely has the best prep curveball in this class a plus offering that touches over 3000 RPM it is a hammer and one of the best secondaries in the class. Next, he is very young for the class not turning 18 for a month. When you look at the youth and cold weather aspects growth potential stands out but he is also already touching 96. The downside is he is 6’1” and one wonders how much more he can add in terms of velocity. He already has some violence in the delivery that has made some wonder if he will end up a reliever. There are also some command and control issues. Knoth is very much an old-school vs new-school guy. When one talks about axis, age-related youth, spin rate vs. size, and velocity. I am more worried about the control than anything else but the curveball is a weapon and as we have seen in recent years curveballs in particular can be one of the most useful secondary offerings along with a slider.
55 Cameron Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy (FL) Committed to LSU
Cam Johnson is a huge, lefty who touches 97. Right now his fastball/slider but both flash plus. There were some concerns late in the year with his elbow that have caused some concerns. He is a good athlete and with his size and release point, everything plays up. The change is far behind his other pitches. He is a pure upside gamble due to his size and what his fastball and slider looked like when he pitched. I really liked the clips I saw and kept wanting to move him up. Yet he is a two-pitch guy with a barky elbow it’s hard to also not be terrified of drafting him and also of passing on him.
56 Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock HS (TX), Committed to Texas
Sykora looks the part of the top pitcher in the draft class about 20 years ago. He is a massive human, from Texas, and hits triple digits. He is one of the older prep players in this class having turned 19 in April meaning he is more than 18 months older than the youngest prep player in this class. So far, he has dominated the high school circuit due to his fastball playing up and making it a potential plus-plus pitch. I debated giving it an 80 grade. The problem is his secondary offerings lag behind it and with his age he might be best served being a reliever. In the pen, he would be an absolute monster. You give him every chance to start, but I think his future is as one of the scarier relief pitchers in baseball.
57 Mike Boeve, 3B, Nebraska-Omaha
In a class where it feels like everyone struggles to consistently make contact Mike Boeve struck out as many times as he was hit by pitches this past year (9). While Boeve comes from a smaller program he produced on the Cape as well posting an on-base percentage over .410. The issue for him on the Cape was a complete and utter lack of power. Boeve is the son of NAIA Hall of Fame coach Jim Boeve. He plays like a coach's son with his approach and complete game. While he has shown strong exit velocities his swing approach has led to very little power in game. He could work as a utility player in the big league with his ability to play the corner spots in a pinch. His hit tool is a plus offering, and if you think you can work with him to keep his approach while also unlocking his exit velocities. There is a chance you might mess up what works but there is also a chance to turn a second or third-round value into a first-rounder if one can thread that needle.
Bonus - George Wolkow, OF, Downers Groove HS (IL), Committed to South Carolina
Last three years I wrote up a guy off my list who I find to be interesting. George Wolkow is the youngest player in this class thanks to reclassifying in 2022. He won’t turn 18 until next January! The 6’7” outfielder is currently playing in the Northwoods League allowing more people to get more eyes on him playing against much older competition. It's been a struggle but at the same time, he is two to five years younger than most players he is facing. Wolkow has jumped at every chance to show his skills also standing out at the Combine. He runs better than one would expect for a player his size, but the calling card for any player with his size is power. He flashes plus-plus raw power, but raw is the word. There is a ton of swing-and-miss in his game. Right now he is closer to 16 than 18. If you are drafting Wolkow it is a bet on him being a good athlete with massive power. I think the athletic profile for a player with his size is something that bares watching. He is the biggest risk literally and figuratively among the prep hitter class. One thing I like is that he is not afraid to fail, we see too many players struggle with being humbled, and right now he is setting himself up to be humbled to get experience that’s a positive sign for any player in baseball which is a game of failure.
Also under consideration in no particular order:
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, FSU, Carson Montgomery, RHP, FSU, Will Gasparino, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) Committed to Texas Jack Gelof, 3B, UVA, Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell, LuJames Groover III, Util, NC State, Parker Detmers, RHP, Glenwood HS (IL), Committed to Louisville, Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida Cal Fisher, 2B, Deerfield HS (WI) Committed to Florida State, Ross Dunn, LHP, Arizona State, Levi Wells, RHP, Texas State, Alonzo Treadwell, RHP, UCLA, Andrew Walters, RHP, Miami, Sean Sullivan, LHP, Wake Forest, Kiefer Lord, RHP, Washington, Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina, Zion Rose, C, IMG Academy Committed to Louisville, Ryan Lasko, OF, Rutgers, Cole Schoenwetter, RHP, San Marcos HS (CA) Committed to UCSB, Roman Martin, SS, Servite HS (CA) Committed to UCLA, Cole Carrigg, UTIL, San Diego State, Jaden Woods, LHP, Georgia, Alex Mooney, SS, Duke, Maui Ahuna, SS, Tennessee, Tanner Hall, RHP, Southern Miss, Myles Naylor, 3B, St. Joan of Arc HS (CN) Committed to Texas Tech, Grayson Hitt, LHP, Alabama, AJ Ewing, IF, Springboro HS Committed to Alabama, Kyle Karros, 1B/3B, UCLA, Ryland Zaboroski, 1B, Miami of Ohio, Laif Palmer, RHP, Golden HS (CO) Committed to Oregon State, Colton Hartman, LHP, Lebanon HS (OH) Committed to Louisville ,Cole Miller, RHP, Newbury Park HS (CA), Committed to UCLA, Isaiah Coupet, LHP, OSU, Kade Kern, OF, OSU, Blake Wolters, RHP, Mahomet-Symour HS (IL) Committed to Arizona, Ty Floyd LSU, Trent Caraway, 3B, JSerra HS (CA) Committed to Oregon State, Liam Peterson, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) Committed to Florida , Antonio Anderson, SS, North Atlanta HS (GA) Committed to Georgia Tech, Max Anderson, 3B, Nebraska, Michael Carico, C, Davidson, Spencer Nivens, OF, Missouri State, Jake Cunningham, OF, Charlotte, Jack Payton, C, Louisville, Kevin Sim, 1B/OF, San Diego, Rikuu Nishida, Util, Oregon, Connor Burns, C, Long Beach State, Christian Oppor, LHP, Gulf Coast State JC, Aidan Longwell, 1B/OF, Kent State
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