Ok this is a mock I last touched in January, before the season began. It has some good information based on then but has massively changed over the last tow months. Rather than waste it, I figured I would post it and then do an accompanying video to explain what I had right, wrong, and what has changed to me and what I have heard. Again I am just a dude who writes in his spare time and has a disability that involves writing, there will be mistakes, you can point them out. But hopefully the content is enough to cover the issues. When I finish the video I will post a link here so you can enjoy both. Thank you for reading!
1 Pittsburgh Pirates Pick Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
Sleeper Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Crews has been the guy who has been labeled the top pick in this draft since his freshman year. There is a clear top two this year with Crews and Chase Dollander. There is always the chance for prospect fatigue with Crews, and if he has even a little disappointment or just replicates and doesn't improve on last year's numbers then he might slip. He has performance, tools, approach, and metrics to back up why he is an elite hitter. Waldrep is a sleeper due to elite metrics and would be an under-slot type here to save money.
2 Washington Nationals Pick Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Sleeper Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC) Committed to North Carolina
It is a two-player draft right now and I think the Nationals will be content with whoever is left as both Crews and Dollander have excelled in the SEC. Dollander has plus control, and command along with multiple plus pitches including a potential 70-grade fastball. He would have been the first college pitcher off the board a year ago and might have been the number-one pick as well. This should be the floor. If things get weird Jenkins stands out as a Nationals type. His stock is slightly lower after an injury over the summer plus he is a prep athlete with a big upside. The number one thing for the Nationals is to look at what player has slipped the most on boards between now and the draft and that is the typical Nationals target, when one is picking second though it feels less likely.
3 Detriot Tigers Pick Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss
Sleeper Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
Any long-time reader will know that one of my favorite draft facts is that the Tigers never take a shortstop in round one. The last one was Scott Moore in 2002, and he was moved to third by the start of 2003. Their most successful round-one shortstop Travis Fryman did play there in the majors but is best known as a third baseman. The other players were Matt Brunson, Jerry Manuel, and Tom Veryzer (Alan Trammel was a second-rounder if you were curious, and the only successful SS in the top five rounds. The second most successful was Bubby Brister who was an average quarterback for a decade in the NFL). This is a long way of saying the Tigers have had a history of weird drafts avoiding a position that I often call the quarterback of the MLB draft. One has to pay Javier Baez a ton of money because, in nearly 60 years of drafts, they have found one shortstop who could play every day in the top five rounds. Scott Harris comes from the Giants who have been a college-heavy team. They have gone for performers and up-the-middle talent. There has been a focus on arms, and left-handed arms but with the strength of the system along with most places having Gonzalez as a top-three talent. He makes a ton of sense here. If they do go arm, Skenes, Waldrep, and Lowder are the names to watch.
4 Texas Rangers Pick Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
Sleeper Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
The Rangers have been college-heavy early on and with their recent spending, it makes sense for them to add players who could be quicker to the majors. If they want to add another pitcher I do think Waldrep is likely the next arm off due to pitch metrics. Wyatt Langford set records as a sophomore and then played well for Team USA to put him squarely in the top five picks of this draft. He likely will end up in leftfield, but he will play centerfield this year in hopes of showing he can play there. Either way, the bat is going to play. He has a strong approach, plus power, and potential above-average hit tools. In other words, he can do it all as a hitter. The bat will play wherever he ends up.
5 Minnesota Twins Pick Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon
Sleeper Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS (IN) Committed to Vanderbilt
The Twins have been focused on college bats, with the exception of Chase Petty in 2021. When they have had top ten picks with the current regime they have focused on up the middle players. Yes, Brooks Lee is likely to move to third or second, but if you liked him a year ago then there are a lot of reasons to be in on Jacob Wilson the son of Jake Wilson. Jacob was the hardest player to strikeout out in 2022. He struck out 7 times in 59 games. He is not a great athlete but has the instincts and skills to stick at shortstop long-term. He might have just one above-average tool with his hit tool, but the rest of his tools being average while playing a premium position has generated many fans. He might not be the most exciting player but seems like a safe prospect. If the Twins go with up the middle high ceiling talent then Max Clark might stand out as a player who they could go after as arguably the top prep player in this class. There is a degree of if you liked Brooks Lee then you are also likely to like Jacob Wilson here. Yet they seem to be shifting to contact profiles after selling out for power several years in a row.
6 Oakland Athletics Pick Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt
Sleeper Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS (IN) Committed to Vanderbilt
All of the reasons the Athletics just traded for Eustery Ruiz as the prime piece for Sean Murphy are the same reasons they would prefer Enrique Bradfield. He is a plus athlete who gets on base at an elite rate with high-end speed. He might be an 80-grade runner and could be the fastest player in the Athletics system while also performing at a high level in the SEC. The Athletics love athleticism, speed, and up-the-middle players. Bradfield checks all of those boxes. I have been connecting these two since the season ended. If they wanted to go for high-ceiling athletes then Max Clark stands out among the prep class as one of the best prep players and athletes in this year's class.
7 Cincinnati Reds Picks Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS (IN) Committed to Vanderbilt
Sleeper Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC) Committed to North Carolina
The Reds have been on a streak of hitters in the first round. The last pitcher they took was Nick Lodolo in 2019. They have drafted six players since then and one common theme has been a sliding talent. One could argue that Matt McLain and Cam Collier were potential top-ten talents who the Reds scooped up. Clark is the top player on most boards at this point it is either he or Jenkins who I picked as the sleeper. At least in terms of hitters, there is a chance they could pivot to a pitcher here. They have targeted arms in round two of the previous five years. Clark feels like a Reds type of player who has gone for up-the-middle talent with strong athlete profiles and or advanced approaches. I think Clark fits both of those.
8 Kansas City Royals Pick Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
Sleeper Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC) Committed to North Carolina
The Royals have a new general manager, but it feels like the same people running things. Outside of the change at the top and some coaching has much changed? At this point in the draft, the prep outfielders or the college starters stand out in terms of what is left on the board. The Royals have gone more college than prep, but they tend to lean a little more toward college of late. There are enough interesting players the Royals can add a player who has a chance to end up their top prospect by the end of 2023. Skenes over Waldrep here as the Royals tend to favor more prototypical size with their pitchers which Skene has. He is a two-way guy who has a chance to elevate his profile by moving from Navy to LSU. He also has a chance for it to plummet for the same reason. He, much like Waldrep, has a ton to prove transferring to a bigger conference. If they go with a bat it would make more sense to go with Jenkins here rather than reach for a college hitter based on consensus boards.
9 Colorado Rockies Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC) Committed to N Carolina
Sleeper Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (FL) Committed to Arkansas
The Rockies took three college players last year after having used their previous three first-rounders on prep players. Before that, they were consistently one of the most conservative drafting teams in baseball. So here the logic is rather basic: the Rockies like athletic outfielders and players with power potential. There is not the classic plus athlete here, but there are two of the better prep power hitters in the country. Jenkins would be an excellent value as he is near the top five on most boards (We have seen college talent rise on draft day). The Rockies get an elite talent and Miller is a name who is on the rise and might have a higher power ceiling than Jenkins. Plus it will be a long time before the Rockies are decent so might as well take a gamble on higher ceilings and lower floors.
10 Miami Marlins Pick Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Sleeper Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
The Marlins went from sky-high ceilings to chasing floors the last few years. Hurston Waldrep is in a fight with Paul Skenes right now to be the number two pitcher in this class. I am more of a believer in his due to his performance. Yet I also recognize the risk due to a slighter build along with some effort in the delivery. The ceiling is higher than Skenes for me but the risk of reliever is also much higher. I know Marlins fans probably think great another starter, but there is always room to trade pitching. There is always value in it. If they want a college performer in terms of a hitter I feel like Taylor would be the top player on most boards.
11 Los Angeles Angels Pick Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
Sleeper Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
I had a write-up all done for this pick, but the more I dug the more I realized it didn’t make a ton of sense. I think this is the first place where we see a bit of a drop-off in the overall talent. There are some interesting prep players, but in terms of safer performances, the options feel a bit limited. The Angels have been more focused early on in terms of college performers and in many ways safer bets. Sam Bachman was a risk, but based on what we saw in college he should have a strong chance as a reliever still due to his overall mix and stuff. Shaw performed well on the Cape hitting for power and average with wood bats. He has flexibility having played all over the diamond. While most think he moves off shortstop the question is do you think the future is in the outfield or at second? He has performed at every level and has sneaky-good power potential along with above-average speed. I know many people are on Brayden Taylor here, but I think he might slide a bit.
12 Arizona Diamondbacks Pick Blake Mitchell, C, Stinton HS (TX) Committed to LSU
Sleeper Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (FL) Committed to Arkansas
With apologies to his potential LSU teammate Paul Skenes, Mitchell is the best two-way player in this class. The riskiest subsection of any draft is prep catchers, but Mitchell has such a rare mix of talent that someone will be willing to gamble. The Diamondbacks typically go for a high upside and when you look at Mitchell’s potential ceiling it matches up as well as any player in this class. He has plus power potential, along with a cannon arm and strong pop times. As a pitcher, Mitchell is up to 97 but there is little doubt behind the plate is his home. He is a plus athlete for the catcher position and it is easy to dream of him being a middle-of-the-order power hitter while also being an above-average defensive catcher. There is nothing harder to find in baseball than the catcher that Mitchell could become. The risk is there but the Diamondbacks have had no issue taking a big risk. Arizona has leaned bats so if the prep catcher risk is too high then Miller stands out among the prep hitters.
13 Chicago Cubs Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
Sleeper Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
The Cubs have gone with college arms in back-to-back years. They also showed they have no problem trusting a smaller sample size and going for more athletic types of pitchers with Cade Horton a year ago. Tanner Witt was a potential first-rounder out of high school but wanted to go to college. He barely pitched last year before Tommy John surgery. He should pitch this year and has a chance to show himself to be a pitcher that many thought would be a top-ten pick in this class. As a reliever as a freshman, there have not been chances to see him pitch in general. He is built like a prototypical starter and has top-of-the-rotation potential. The chances to have seen him are limited but if he comes back and pitches well he could end up the number two pitcher in this class. Juraon Watts-Brown was great on the Cape. He is another player who transferred this year and has a chance to prove himself at a big program. He is a strong athlete who is a name to watch this year.
14 Boston Red Sox Pick Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS (OH) Committed to Auburn
Sleeper Roman Martin, SS, Servite HS (CA) Committed to UCLA
The Red Sox have been all about up-the-middle hitters with potential above-average hit tools that use the entire field. Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, and Mikey Romero all have similar approaches. Two of them were players who were drafted higher than expected, and while right now Emerson might be viewed as a surprise pick in the top 15 I don’t think it will stay that way. It has been a long time since an Ohio high school prep player went in the first round since Matt Smoral went in the comp round in 2012. The last true first-rounder was Chad Billingsley in 2003. While Jacob Miller went in the second round in 2022 the previous second-rounder was Cameron Vargra to the Rays in 2014. This is a long way of saying Emerson has shown himself to be pretty special to get first-rounder chatter already. He won’t get a lot of chances in the spring to separate himself but what he showed over the summer should help him never make it to Auburn. If not Emerson then maybe another up-the-middle player with a similar approach but from California where Yorke, Mayer, and Romero were also from.
15 Chicago White Sox Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (FL) Committed to Arkansas
Sleeper Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbilt
The White Sox have gone from one of the most conservative to one of the more prep friendly early under their new scouting director. Miller would stand out as a potential top-10 talent sitting there still on the board at 15. His power is his carrying tool, but he projects as a potential plus bat at the hot corner which would carry him at any position on the diamond. White to some is the top prep arm in this class. The lefty could appeal to the White Sox might like Noah Schultz did a year ago.
16 San Francisco Giants Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
Sleeper Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
While Kyle Harrison has turned into the jewel of the Giants system they have been focused on college players early on in the draft. Harrison feels more like the exception than the rule which is, unfortunately, a lot of their recent high picks have struggled to make it to the big leagues, or once there they have struggled to garner regular playing time. Lowder is the recent Wake Forest pitching factory product. While they come out knowing how to pitch, they are often maxed-out players with little room for growth. Lowder based on fall rankings is likely the consensus top college player left. Brock Wilken has some swing-and-miss along with positional concerns, but his exit velocities will see him go in the top 50.
17 Baltimore Orioles Pick Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
Sleeper Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Jackson Holliday was a large change for the Orioles in a couple of different ways. One, he was not a big savings pick at the top. Second, he was a prep player. Third, he wasn’t another outfielder. I still think the Orioles are likely to lean toward college hitters in the draft due to the amount of data available on college hitters these days. While there have been issues with Stanford players in the past one has to remember the coaching staff has changed and the Stanford swing is no longer ruining players' pro potential. Tommy Troy has mostly lined up at second but spent the Cape showing he can handle shortstop and will try to show that this season as well. He has one of the best approaches in the class, is a hard player to strike out, and has shown more power than one might expect from his size. He has hit with wood and metal. He might not be the most exciting guy due to 50 or 55s across the board. But the profile is very safe and the chance for an above-average regular who could play any spot on the infield and likely in the outfield if given the opportunity is very high. Hurley is a five-tool guy who had a massive sophomore year that he will look to build on by taking over for Gavin Cross as the big hitter for Virginia Tech.
18 Milwaukee Brewers Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
Sleeper: Maui Ahuna, SS, Tennessee
The Brewers have gone for college performers with regularity, and they have shown in the past a lack of exit velocity is not something that will concern them. They will take a sliding name talent as well and right now the biggest name left and likely the consensus top talent would be Taylor. Taylor doesn't have a standout tool so much like Tommy Troy one is betting on average tools across the board. He currently plays short but everyone thinks his future is at third base where he could be a plus defender. Maui Ahuna profiles as such a Brewers type I nearly made him the pick here due to his production at a smaller school, Kansas is a small baseball program compared to its name value and his overall contact rate.
19 Tampa Bay Rays Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (FL), Florida State
Sleeper: Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
CEILING! CEILING! CEILING! CEILING! Say it with me. Even when Tampa has gone the college route it is players who were riskier or had not had as much developmental time. Nimmala has the bonus of being a local kid but that has little to do with the selection. It is all about the fact, he is an elite athlete. He has elite speed and elite exit velocities. He is one of the youngest players in the entire class as well. His exit velocities have been over 100MPH and his power could end up plus down the road. If one heads to perfect game his exit velocity was in the 99.97 percentile and his 60-yard dash 98.37 percentile that is a pretty spectacular combination. There are some free-swinging tendencies that push him down the board but if he shows improvement in that area in the spring Nimmala could put himself in the top five. White still stands out as a prep arm, but as we have seen prep arms have started to get pushed down boards in recent years.
20 Toronto Blue Jays Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
Sleeper Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbilt
While the Blue Jays did go with a prep arm a year ago it feels like they would have a hard time passing on a talent like Witt whose dad was a former first-rounder himself by the Blue Jays back in 1994. I mean think of the writers and the field day they would have writing about these two picks nearly 30 years apart. Witt missed almost his entire sophomore year due to an elbow injury. He has under 70 innings in his college career and it is unclear when he will play or if he will play for Texas this year. Witt was my highest-rated player from the 2020 class to make it to college. His size, velocity, secondary offerings, and athleticism stood out among many of the top prep arms in his class. The Blue Jays like big arms, they like bloodlines, and they are not afraid of injuries. Witt, if healthy, could have been in the top ten discussions.
21 St. Louis Cardinals Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian (FL) Committed to Central Florida
Sleeper Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
The Cardinals have taken pitchers in the first round the last two years. Those both have been high-performing pitchings with plus control and command. They have not taken a prep pitch in the first round since Jake Woodford in 2015, and have not taken a prep pitcher with their top picks since Shelby Miller in 2009. At the same time, they lean heavily into age-based models and Soto is one of the youngest players in the class. He will not turn 18 until August. One has to wonder after the success with Tink Hence if they might be more willing to take a chance with a prep arm.
22 Seattle Mariners Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Sleeper Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbilt
Seattle is fascinating as no one was more conservative until the past two years. Since then they have gone heavy into the prep side of things with their top picks. In addition to that they own this draft with three picks in the top 30. So here I have them taking a sliding talent who some have as a top five college talent with the knowledge that it is easier to slide a top rep talent to pick 29 or 30 than a college player who does have some split opinions but who a lot of people really like. Hurley is a potential five-tool talent, who can also handle center field. He was pushed to left field last year due to Gavin Cross, but this is his year to handle centerfield and be the centerpiece of the lineup. His advanced numbers are all very strong and I think he likely ends up higher than this when the draft does occur.
23 Cleveland Guardians Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
Sleeper Travis Honeyman, OF, Boston College
Cleveland has been a bit all over the map taking a mix of hitters and pitchers. They have seemed to focus on college players the last two years which might be in part due to having more information and data on these players making them safer overall prospects. In the last two years, they have had 11 picks in the top 10 rounds and have only taken four prep players and none of them have been on day one of the draft. So while it is tempting to put the last Naylor here it would also be against recent data. Watts-Brown very much fits the approach in terms of a high-performing Cape player with a clear delivery, and a plus athletic profile. It could be a rough year transitioning from Long Beach to Oklahoma State and the last crop of transfer arms struggled there. The Guardians took another Oklahoma State arm a year ago so going back to the program from a player who was one of the best strikeout artists on the Cape makes too much sense.
24 Atlanta Braves Cole Schoenwetter, RHP, San Marcos HS (CA) Committed to UCSB
Sleeper Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
The Braves have been focused on adding arms. A year ago they were focused on prep arms, the years before they had taken a pair of Wake Forest pitchers in back-to-back classes. I would bet on a pitcher here and Schoenwetter is the pitcher on the board who is most similar to the pair of arms they took last year in Ritchie and Murphy. He is a good athlete with a clean delivery, multiple-second offerings, and good spin rates. He might not be as exciting as some of the other pitchers in this class but he fits the Braves profile. If they did go college-arm Will Sanders feels like the biggest name left.
25 San Diego Padres Zion Rose, C, IMG Academy Committed to Louisville
Sleeper Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbilt
The Padres love athletes and big-time ceiling players. Zion Rose is the athlete in this class, and while I am not sure if he can stick as a catcher, the physical tools are as good as any player in any recent draft class I have seen. While he is not often listed as a first-rounder, the exposure he will get at IMG along with his athletic profile and big exit velocity I expect to see his name rise up lasts all spring. White is a top 20 talent to some who might be hard to pass on.
26 New York Yankees Travis Honeyman, OF, Boston College
Sleeper Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
The Yankees have been a college-heavy team over the years. They have not spent a lot of high picks on prep players, even if it did work out with Volpe. Honeyman has a chance to go much higher. I know some people who view him as a top-10 talent in this class. He had a microscopic strikeout percentage as a sophomore and if he can tap into more of his power he might just end up a top-10 pick. He has at least average skills across the board, with a chance for a plus offensive profile between his contact skills, above-average power, and ability to use the entire field. His contact-based approach has become more en vogue as well which might cause him to rise up boards.
27 Philadelphia Phillies Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR) Committed to Oregon
Sleeper Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS (IL) Committed to Clemson
Dave Dombroski has a type well, actually a few, but they basically boil down to SEC arms that throw hard, big prep arms with big velocity, or athletic outfielders. Last year they grabbed an athletic outfielder so this time they can grab the pick prep arm who happens to go to the same school as recent pick Mick Abel. Meyer has the size and velocity that Dave D loves and just fits the type of player that he grabs. A sliding talent from one of his three favorite groups. He is more of a two-pitch guy with a changeup that is in development. His fastball and slider look like out pitches for him, and his athletic profile will also win him fans. He is the typical big, right-handed prep arm. The Phillies have had success with players like him of late. If they wanted another athletic outfield Head would be a player they might consider.
28 Houston Astros Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
Sleeper Kyle Teel, C, UVA
29 Seattle Mariners Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA) Committed to Vanderbilt
Sleeper Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
30 Seattle Mariners Kyle Teel, C, UVA
Sleeper Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami University
31 Tampa Bay Rays Cole Carrigg, UTIL, San Diego State
Sleeper Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA) Committed to Auburn
32 New York Mets Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami University
Sleeper Jonny Farmerlo, OF, Westfield HS (VA) Committed to UVA
33 Milwaukee Brewers Maui Ahuna, SS, Tennessee
Sleeper Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
34 Minnesota Twins Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA) Committed to Auburn
Sleeper Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
35 Miami Marlins Jack Gelof, 3B, UVA
Sleeper Byrce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA), Committed to Alabama
36 Los Angeles Dodgers Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
Sleeper Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell
37 Detriot Tigers LuJames Groover III, Util, NC State
Sleeper Ryan Lasko, OF, Rutgers
38 Cincinnati Reds Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton HS (AZ) Committed to UCLA
Sleeper Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (CO) Committed to Arkansas
39 Oakland Athletics Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (CO) Committed to Arkansas
Sleeper Mitch Jebb SS, Michigan State
40 Washington Nationals Ross Dunn, LHP, Arizona State
Sleeper Byrce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA), Committed to Alabama
41 Oakland Athletics Mitch Jebb SS, Michigan State
Sleeper Myles Naylor, 3B, St. Joan of Arc (ON) Committed to Texas Tech
42 Pittsburgh Pirates Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell
Sleeper Byrce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA), Committed to Alabama
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