Ok, so two notes here at the top. The first is that this is all being done sans editor, being dyslexic this whole writing without a net has been kind of terrifying for me and is part of the reason my amount of writing has declined in general combined with it not being a job, podcasting, and starting a family. Still, I enjoy talking about the draft and continue to grind just for fun with it. So I will be posting my thoughts here. There will just be one evolving and changing board. I am writing up players as I get a chance to watch, read reports, and chat with people. I will post those down here and move players around as I see more, and write more so consider this a Big Board in pieces. Thank you to all who read and share every eye helps. If you would like to run any part of this on your site contact me as well.
1 Andruw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (GA) Committed to Vanderbilt
I know how exciting of me to go with the chalk pick at one. Yet he has legit five-tool talent and a chance to be his father who was on a no-doubt Hall of Fame track until he turned 30. He is bigger than his dad and not the same level of defender. His dad might be the greatest defensive center fielder of all time after all. The one concern is the swing, which as we all know is the one thing outside of injury that can derail a career. The way the rest of the tools stand even if he ends up with a below-average hit tool he should be a star. His speed, power, and defense will allow him to stand out as long as he can have a 40-hit tool, which I think is the floor there. He might not be a slam dunk type but he is darn close.
2 Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC Committed to Louisville
This is where I do get a bit crazy. Over the years one thing we know for sure is that the best correlation to future success is age relative to level. Collier should be a junior in high school and he put up very good numbers at the premier JuCo program in the country. He is one of the best hitters in this class and seems to be able to hit anything you throw at him. If he had been playing a bit better in the Cape the gap between him and Jones would be smaller than that for the players behind him. He looks like a solid bat to be a plus bat and a plus glove. He has bloodlines as well which is a big theme in this draft class overall. I think he has a chance to grow into plus power as well and reminds me of Ke’Bryan Hayes with more power if everything continues on the current path. The advanced approach, bat speed, and contact skills mitigate the risk one would typically have with a player his age.
3 Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays High School (GA) Committed to Arizona State
Johnson is a little lower than Collier mostly because we have seen Collier do it against 20-year-olds. Johnson has a higher ceiling with his bat, but there are also debates if he ends up at second base or maybe left field long term. The lack of position is a minor quibble and there will be those who don’t love his size. It is weird that it can still be an issue nowadays, but it does come up. One is drafting him for the bat at the end of the day and hoping for a guy who might win a batting title while also hitting 30 home runs. The offensive ceiling is as good as any player in this class. I know I need to retire ceiling and talk about percentile outcomes. Based on what he has seen with the contact skills and strong approach he is a lot safer than the typical high school bat and the majority of healthy outcomes should lead to him being at least better than a league-average bat.
4 Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Committed to Oklahoma State
This was the first major debate for me in this ranking. There is the proven college bat or the toolsy player who has a chance to stay at shortstop. I normally lean toward safety, but Holliday, if he hits his high-end outcomes, is a five-tool shortstop and outside of the nonexistent five-tool catcher there is no position where having that much offensive ceiling would be more valuable. Holliday is going to be a guy that old scouts love due to his picture-perfect swing. I just see the quick hands and clean approach of a kid whose dad was one of the better hitters in baseball. His grandfather coached college baseball for 40 years as well, Holiday was raised in the game as much as one can be. I think more than likely he ends up closer to average tools across the board but that is still a starter with a chance for him to be greater than that.
5 Brooks Lee, 2B/3B, Cal Poly
I feel like I am going against everything I have held dear during the last few years of following the draft by dropping Lee from one to five. It is more about the ceilings of the players ahead of him than Lee himself. He was a transcendent talent playing for his father at Cal Poly in the Big West. He was great all summer but suffered some slippage on boards mostly due to playing mostly against lesser competition in conference play. Lee is the safest bet in this class. His contact skills this year were among the best in the country. He hit for more power every year and continued to steadily improve. There is a chance for plus hit and above-average power. If there was a chance he could stick at short. He would be top two in this class for me. I just don’t see a route for him to stay there which limits value. If you want the safest bet, who should move quickly to the majors then Lee is the guy to take in this class.
6 Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
I know I am going against every board but Parada has a chance to stick at catcher, which is by far the hardest to fill position in baseball. There are four qualifying catchers in baseball this year with a league-average wRC+. The focus on Parada is his power and it is understandably so after he hit 26 this year at Georgia Tech. But what stands out to me is he did that in the number two college baseball conference while striking out under 10 percent of the time. The defense is going to be the question and if one thinks he can’t catch then he might not be a top ten player in this class. His arm is fringy for the position so even if framing becomes less important due to robot umps he is never going to be more than a below-average catcher when you look at the whole package of skills. The bat will play at first base, but the drop in positional value makes him have more risk than one would expect for a player with his power, contact skills, and eye at the plate.
7 Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL) Committed University of Miami
This time a year ago all the talk about the draft was Elijah Green. There was talk if he reclassified last year he would have been the top overall selection and no worse than a top-three pick. He is the son of former All-Pro Tight end Eric Green and while not as big as his father he is still 6’3” with the best potential power among the high-end high school players. He has also faced the best competition of any of those top players at IMG. I might be putting too much weight on the fact that Green has had a lot of swing and miss in his game. There have been many, many high tools high power players with questionable hit tools that have struggled to make it to AA. Many of them end up MVP candidates. It is a very risky profile and among the top-end players in this class. I view him as the biggest risk. He could very easily end up being a star or never make it. This is where the first tier ends for me and due to risk I have him last among this group.
8 Jace Jung, 2B/LF, Texas Tech
Jace Jung has been one of the best hitters in college baseball the last few years. It was a disappointing year for him that saw him drop from 21 to 14 home runs which is what caused him to slide out of the top ten on some boards. His power is the second tool for me, almost a bonus due to his extreme walk rates along with high batting averages. There is little doubt he will be able to get on base as a pro. He also saw his strikeout percentages decrease over his college baseball career. So why is a player with some of the best on-base skills in this class with a long track record, and a brother who is a top prospect not in the top tier? It was a close thing but I honestly am not sure where he plays. I don’t think he can stick at 3B, and he is likely to be average at best and might end up leftfield only. These types have not seen much success after being drafted. There are concerns with his approach and swing, but I would not mess with anyone who has had this much success. There is a chance for a future All-Star level hitter, one with plus on-base and power. Plus there are much greater success rates for those who walk more than they strike out in college.
9 Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (TX) Committed to Mississippi State
One way I have seen the draft shift in the decade I have covered it is shown in a player like Jett Williams. In terms of physical traits and just athleticism, he is not that far off from the prep players at the top of this class. Yet the fact he is 5’8” means he would have been viewed as undrafted when I started at least in terms of the cost due to his commitment. I bet he still goes lower than he should go because of his size and the natural assumption he can’t hit for power due to it. Apparently, no one has seen Jose Altuve or Jose Ramirez. Williams might have the fastest hands in this class which in turn makes it so it feels like he hits everything no matter who he is facing. He has shown good exit velocity values in high school as well as strong contact rates. He is a plus runner who might end up in centerfield where his arm would be a weapon. Williams throws in the 90s as a pitcher. It looks like a safer profile for a prep bat with more power than he is given credit for and some of the best athleticism in the class.
10 Jacob Berry, 1B, LSU
Berry is the third player in this class where the position they will play in the future is very much up for debate. When it comes to the other two players I feel like there is a chance they might end up at a slightly more valuable position. Berry feels like a first baseman or a designated hitter all the way. Yet he will likely be the odds-on favorite to be the first hitter from this class to make it to the big leagues. Berry moved from Arizona to LSU and continued to make pitchers’ lives miserable. I think most expected him to contend for the NCAA home run crown but settled at 15. Yet he dropped his strikeout percentage from 19.5 to 8.8! He did this while switching to a much tougher conference as well. He can hit this is not up for debate the debate is can he maybe stick in leftfield or will he be stuck at first. He has a good chance at having a plus hit and plus power profile and will likely go in the top ten. I would just more than likely let someone else draft him there. This is the end of the next tier for me, and after this, the next group is like 20 deep.
11 Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee
Another pick where I am going to go against traditional logic. Gilbert is a no-doubt center fielder which is a top-three position when it comes to value. I know everyone has Jordan Beck with a higher value, and his ceiling is higher but Gilbert is significantly safer. He plays a plus centerfield and as a pitcher threw in the low 90s during his 11 games in college. Gilbert is a good athlete who walked over 13.5 percent of the time while also hitting for average and showing surprising pop. Gilbert is another player who will get dinged due to his lack of size. He measures 5’9” but hit 11 home runs in the top conference in college baseball but get ready to hear about guys who did less who have more power because of height. Gilbert, baring health issues should be no worse than a platoon bat. It's a safe profile at a very valuable position.
12 Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison
There will be a lot of focus on DeLauter’s struggles against Florida State and the combo of Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. I would like to point out that the same can be said for pretty much every hitter they faced this year. DeLauter being a lefty it was an even tougher matchup, and while he looked bad. It seems silly to only look at those two games and ignore what he did during the Cape over multiple weeks against great competition. He is big, athletic, and young for his class. He has a lot of reasons for one to expect a lot more growth potential due to his youth and coming from a small school. I wish he had played more with just 323 plate appearances during his college years due to Covid and injuries. He broke his foot this year ending his season early. The level at which he played along with the lack of reps and his FSU struggles are pulling him down, boards. After the summer he looked like a top-five pick. Some teams in the teens or twenties will take the risk on his combination of power and speed.
13 Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (PA), committed to Duke
Young is the fifth shortstop in the top 18 and outside of Jackson Holliday, he feels the most likely to remain there. He has looked like a better hitter all spring and his hit tool is the main calling card here along with positional value. Some doubt that he will hit for power but he has good bat speed, fast hands, and can turn on pitches showing excellent exit velocity numbers. I think he could stick at short with above-average hit and power which makes him a potential top-end player at the shortstop position. Every time I look at my board I want to push him higher and I think he is a pretty safe bet to go in the first 15 picks in this year's draft.
14 Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
This is for certain the college part of this draft, I am not sure if it is due to depth or just the lack of overall depth to the class. There are many good prep arms, but due to my risk-averse nature, I am never that high on them. Beck is a player who based on reports I thought I might not like. There were hit tool questions, and athleticism being the main carrying tool, along with projection and ceiling being mentioned more than any of his current abilities. Here is the thing though he was actually good this year, and not just college good but a player who clearly improved throughout his season and over the last two years started to tap into more and more of those traits. I think he has plus power ability and while he might never hit for average his walk and strikeout percentages were not bad especially when you consider where he played. I give him an edge over Cross due to the clear plus run and plus power. Beck also has a legitimate chance to play in center. The risk is there but the ceiling is enough that in a few years he is a leading candidate to be the guy most under-drafted in this class.
15 Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
I have a block when it comes to Cross. He is in the top ten of every board and performed very well all year in the number two conference in college baseball. He showed well with Team USA last year as well. He played centerfield for Virginia Tech but most think he ends up on the corners. There is just something with Cross I don’t quite trust. He reminds me of a few other hitters where the numbers were solid but nothing that stood out in any particular area. When you add them all up he was excellent, but there is not the standout carrying tool that makes me think that it will be the plus trait that drives his progression. One is betting on him doing a bit of everything and everything progressing as expected with no hiccups or areas of struggle. These types often have more risk than one expects. This being said I still think he is one of the top players in this class due to being a good athlete along with strong production. I just wish there was that one tool that made me think he could excel in any one area. I feel like every time I see a player who has all future 55s they end up struggling to make the majors.
16 Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida
Sterlin Thompson is one of the many draft-eligible sophomores in this class. He hit for average this year at Miami with solid walk and strikeout rates. He seems like one of the safer hitters in this part of the draft. He looks like the part of a corner outfielder with plus on-base skills and league-average power. There are questions about his position, and I don’t see the potential for power growth beyond an average grade. The swing will be what sees him drafted. He will more than likely be no worse than a platoon bat with a chance for more.
17 Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
I sat down to write Neto fully expecting him to be a guy I placed in the 20s and I feel like in a normal class he would be a bit lower. This is really where I feel like the next 10 or so players could be placed in nearly any order and I would not argue about it. Yes, I am concerned about him being a small school guy with limited chances to see him face top competition. At the same time, he did exactly what you have to do in that situation and put up video game numbers. There is also the excellent Cape performance from a year ago that makes you feel better as well. He has a solid chance to stick at short and the arm for third if not. If you are taking him in the top 15 it is due to the belief he will stay at short along with plus on-base skills and league-average power production. All of which allows him to be a top 10 shortstop if it all breaks right and a strong utility type if not. The leg kick is the one thing that stood out for me. I don’t love moving parts and often guys like that tend to be a little lower, but that is something I need to re-evaluate in terms of my views.
18 Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
Our first pitcher to make it on the board and he has 28 innings in college and missed all of this year after Tommy John surgery. Prielipp's slider might be the top pitch in the entire class; it's a plus-plus pitch that will allow him to strike out righties and lefties with ease. His fastball is a low 90s pitch that also looks like a plus offering. His changeup, well it is a work in progress. The guy has only thrown 28 innings over the last three years. No player better sums up this class than Prielipp. He has barely pitched and is right now mostly a two-pitch player coming off TJ surgery, yet he will be the top pitcher on multiple boards because of what we have seen and being able to extrapolate what a pitcher with his spin and velocity should be able to do given time. The lefty has a large range of potential outcomes from ace to closer to a player who never makes it to the big leagues. He is a good athlete and I expect he will not only develop his change but also add more velocity to his fastball which gives him a chance at being a front-of-the-rotation starter.
19 Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
Susac is a player I was higher on than the field earlier on and am a bit lower now. I was hoping to see him improve upon last year's production or show some of the continued improvement he showed on the Cape. He has performed extremely well but in a very hitter-friendly park. The recent track record of Arizona and Arizona State hitters for that matter has not been great. I think a team drafts him hoping for him to be an average defender with an average bat. A lot of the concerns I talked about with Cross are here for Susac as well. When there is not that clear carrying tool everything needs to break right to ensure success. His ceiling is lower than Cross, but he does have a higher floor as defensively he does enough to be a potential backup with a chance for him to be a plus player for his position. He is yet another player with bloodlines; his older brother Andrew was a catcher in the majors for multiple teams.
20 Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA) Committed Vanderbilt
With every passing year, I become more and more averse to drafting high school pitchers. The flame-out rate is so high. This class is very deep when it comes to high school arms, but due to my natural aversion, it ends up not benefiting the class as much to me at least. Lesko is the best prep arm I have seen over the last few drafts. If he had not gotten hurt he would be about ten spots higher on my board despite my concerns with prep arms. He is that good. He shows three potential plus pitches and has been a force of nature until his injury. He is not the biggest pitcher, but his combination of velocity, movement, and spin along with his control and command shows a potential future Ace. It is just a matter of health and development which is something that one can say for nearly every prep pitcher ever. There are not many guys with three potential plus pitches.
21 Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) Committed to LSU
The theme of this class, especially if one is watching it, will be bloodlines. I feel like people forget just how good Carl Crawford was in his prime due to his sudden fall apart after signing a big free-agent deal at age 29. Justin has the physical tools of his dad, but with significantly more power potential. He has the size and bat speed to produce average to above-average home runs. His dad topped out at 19 and if everything works out for Justin he should be able to beat that number. There is a tendency for him to expand the zone and show more swing and miss in his game. Yet the chance for him to be a plus version of his father who was a consistent four to a five-win player will likely see him drafted higher than this. It is just the general projection over surety that pushes him down. Also, we should shout out the Bishop Gorman program which has a top prep every year it feels like
22 Dylan Beavers, OF, California
Beavers is a polarizing prospect. He has excelled in college showing improvement every year but for some not enough improvement this year. He is young for his class junior who won’t be 21 until the middle of August. He is a big kid at 6’4”, but also a better athlete than most bigger outfielders. He has a chance to stay in centerfield but has the arm for right field. He has been talked about as a five-tool-player during his time at California. There has also been some talk that he might have made better adjustments if he had gone to a more consistent MLB-producing program. The team that drafts him is betting on his upside and the chance to get a plus run and plus power center fielder with on-base skills. He might not hit for a high average but his hit tool isn’t poor, just average to below. He balances this out with a strong walk percentage. Beavers have fallen a little on boards and I can't help but feel that is due to him mostly posting the same numbers in back-to-back years. I would argue he managed to drop his strikeout percentage and significantly raise his walk percentage giving up a near one-to-one strikeout to walk ratio which is always something I am looking for.
23 Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State
I am looking forward to when someone sees his size and assumes on a draft podcast that he is a hard thrower. Instead, the 6’7'' Campbell is more like a soft-tossing lefty than a big hard-throwing right-hander. As we continue to move from velocity-based grades on a fastball to looking at spin and movement a player like Campbell will be more valuable. He missed a ton of bats while showing excellent command and control. Also one has to point out that being taller means a later release point which often makes a low 90s pitch more effective for a player with his height. Plus let’s talk about the elephant in the room, Oklahoma State has five draft-eligible pitchers including Nolan McLean and there was not a lot of great development shown in the group. Teams might be more willing to bet on a chance for more while also knowing it is a safe floor for a sturdy, innings-eating back-end starter. For a team that wants to go under slot in the first half, I think Campbell makes a ton of sense. He has sown four pitches but mostly lived with the change being the only one to flash plus that could be an issue as of the secondary offerings it is the changeup that seems to have the least direct translation success.
24 Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage Plantation HS (FL) Committed Vanderbilt
Barriera is rather consistently in the top 20 to 25 and he makes the top 25 for me as well. I think there is some reliever risk with him as there is a lot of upper body torque in the delivery which helps with his velocity but can also affect control. It is still not common to see a lefty throwing 98 but he mostly sits low to mid-90s. It's the slider that stood out at points this spring along with his changeup giving him a starters mix. The ceiling as a solid number two is why he ends up the number two prep arm in this class for me. Honestly, it was being a lefty that pushed him over Brock Porter but them being back to back really speaks to how close it was. I have had more than a few people tell him that they see a reliever with him all the way, but the combination of being a lefty, present velocity, athleticism, and some very good spin rate data all make it hard for him to be lower than this in the draft even with the concerns I heard.
25 Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS (MI) Committed Clemson
Do you want the next Mick Abel or Andrew Painter? Porter is a big right-handed pitcher with big velocity and the size that is the prototype arm. There are always a few pitchers like this in a class so the debate always comes down to which one is the most likely to be successful. I feel like I could copy and paste over profiles I have used before for this type of prep arm. This is not meant to be a knock, just Porter is exactly what teams look for. He is big, athletic, and brings the heat. He has been one of the most dominant high school pitchers in the country the last two years and could likely end up in the top ten picks. He has less risk than Barriera so I could understand anyone flipping these two pitchers. There are three potential above-average to plus offerings along with the build teams crave. He will be long gone before pick 26, but I am just not the person who might ever draft a prep arm in round one if I ran a team.
26 Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State
Jacob Melton is basically a senior in terms of age. He is very similar in some regards to Jud Fabian who will appear later on this list. Both are likely to play in centerfield though Melton is not as strong a defender. Melton did not get too many chances over his first two years at Oregon State totaling 129 plate appearances. He had 295 this year showing a strong approach at the plate, plus speed, and big power production. He hit 17 home runs and had 43 extra-base hits in general. He was one of the most productive hitters in college baseball playing for a team that is known for its ability to develop hitters. Melton played all three outfield spots and first base. The question comes down to how much you buy the tools and production. Some will say his only plus tool is speed. I think he has a chance at above-average hit and power if not more. There have been limited reps, and he is viewed as older but I would more view this as a chance to buy lower on a guy who wasn’t even on the radar before the year began mostly due to lack of chances.
27 Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina
Eric Brown has a weird swing with some moving parts. It is very non-traditional and it clearly has been a big part of the reason he is lower on boards. He is also a smaller school player even if it is from one of the better smaller schools in terms of the draft at Coastal Carolina. I say all of this because this is where my list starts to get weird. Brown is not in the top 40 anywhere I know. Yet he has incredibly fast hands, good bat speed is a potential plus defender at short, and has produced incredibly well. He was an All-Star on the Cape a year ago. Then he went back to Coastal Carolina and cut his strikeout percentage while increasing most of his other stats outside of home runs. Yet he had more extra-base hits so his slugging was higher even if he hit two fewer home runs. He is widely viewed as a no-doubt shortstop and one of the top defenders in the class. While the swing is non-traditional, his hands allow him to catch up to and barrel everything. I see a no-doubt shortstop who has plus on-base skills and great contact skills. He excelled when facing better competition in the Cape, and plays a premium position. We have seen the rise in the importance of contact rates for hitters which is another skill he has. I might end up wrong but a potential plus defender at short with plus contact skills seems like a big win for any team.
28 Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
The first thing you hear about Brock Jones is he was also a safety on the Stanford football team. He made the right choice to focus on baseball after his 2019 football season. He played in 11 games mostly on special teams as a freshman while on the baseball diamond he started all 16 games that year before the year was lost to Covid. He started slow, and for some players, they never quite recovered the steam they had before the offseason began. The Pac 12 is a hitter-friendly environment which is part of the reason his recovery and huge statistical jump late in the year did not carry as much for scouts as it did for people who are Stanford fans. He is raw and there are swing and miss concerns. Yet I think he is a legitimate potential centerfielder with plus power and speed. His strikeout percentage was higher as a junior than as a sophomore, but he did work to cut it down significantly over the course of the year from near or over 30 to 34. He has always walked at a high rate and he did hit 21 home runs and had 39 extra-base hits in general due to the speed and power combination. Here is a player who was talked about as a top ten pick. He has shown power, speed, and patience at a premium position. So it comes down to how much a team thinks they can work with him on the swing but the tools and production stand out for Jones.
29 Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
Gabriel Hughes is a player that some have as college pitcher one. Gonzaga has turned into a solid developmental program that has seen more and more pitchers drafted every year. Hughes has been up to 97 this year and has the traditional build that teams covet. The jump in velocity could be partially attributed to the focus on pitching after being a two-way player his first two years in a limited role. It could also be due to natural development as Hughes is one of the youngest juniors in this class and won’t turn 21 until August of this year. His performance stands out in terms of his age. I could quibble with the walk rate or strikeout rate while playing in the West Coast Conference. Both numbers are good, but not quite great. I think we are seeing the beginning of his ascent. Right now he is mostly fastball/slider but both pitches flash plus and his changeup looks like a solid show me third style pitch.
30 Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS (NV) Committed to LSU
There was a time when Snelling was being recruited to colleges for both his ability as a football player as well as a baseball player. He was a quarterback in high school but was being recruited as a linebacker. He was a three-star football recruit and could still conceivably play for LSU. He switched over to LSU after Jay Johnson switched from Arizona to LSU to coach baseball. This also seemed to make it seem that Snelling might be a bit easier for a time to sign. He is big and athletic as one would think of a division one linebacker. He also sports one of the better curveballs in the prep class to go with it. His third pitch like most high school kids is a work in progress. The team that drafts Snelling is betting on athleticism and ceiling. The hope is that once he focuses on baseball his fastball will play up a bit more and that his general athleticism will be able to see him become a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. There is a lot of growth potential due to the amount of time he has focused on football in the past.
31 Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State
This is where the next tier of talent starts for me and I heavily debated seven or eight players from my next grouping and in the end, I went with sure positional value. Tanner is likely the top defensive catcher in the country. He looks like a plus defender if not more behind the plate. He is the complete package between pop, arm, and footwork. He has handled bit velocity at Mississippi State as well so one feels comfortable with the views on his defense. He has a good eye at the plate with high walk percentages and strike-out percentages below 20. He is a strong kid with bat speed so one expects more power but he is more of a slap hitter. His home run total this year was half of his sophomore year and the power regression is why he is lower on boards now than he was before the year. Yet if he ends up a league-average bat with his defensive profile then the team that drafts him at the end of round one or even in round two made one of the best choices in the entire class. He seems no worse than a strong backup with a chance to be the rare catcher with a plus bat and glove for the position. Those are incredibly hard to find and very valuable.
32 Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville
And now for something completely different. Rushing might be the anti-Tanner but it is fun to compare what he did this year in the ACC to what Kevin Parada did. They are both bat first catchers with questions about staying at the position. Rushing did have to catch better pitching overall at the pitching factory that is Louisville. Parada has a better hit tool and lower strikeout percentages. Yet Rushing kept his strikeout percentage under 20 while maintaining a near 17 percent walk rate. Oh and he was one of the best hitters on the Cape in 2021, so you feel comfortable with him switching to wood bats. He needs reps having barely got to play before this year. He is sub-six feet, so there are concerns that if he can’t catch then he has no future position. I don’t think he will win any awards, but I think he can stick at catcher long-term. Where he would provide plus left-handed power, and the ability to work counts. It is a very valuable overall profile and why he is higher for me than most. Catching is so hard to find that I view it as a premium position. When you come from one of the most successful colleges for catchers and put up huge numbers in a top conference along with the Cape well you get a first-round grade from me.
33 Chandler Simpson, CF, Georgia Tech
It’s fine I know I am insane, but I kind of want to put Simpson even higher than this. He played at short this year for Georgia Tech but that is not his future. Simpson has legitimate 80-grade speed, and while he needs to learn centerfield, he should be a plus defender down the road. This year he stepped into the SEC after playing at Alabama-Birmingham and all he did was lead the nation in batting average for large chunks of the year while also being one of the hardest hitters to strike out in the entire county. When one looks at the list of hardest players to strike out the majority of them come from smaller conferences. He was just one of three from a power five conference in the top 25. He also walked 13 percent of the time which is a healthy walk rate on top of just video game-like contact rates. Oh, this year he has been consistently one of the best hitters in the Cape, after dominating the Northwoods league last year just adding more to the profile. Did I already mention the 80-grade speed? I get it a position change, along with the fact he has 20-grade power are issues. If he played ten years in the majors he might not hit double-digit home runs total. He is not a top 100 prospect anywhere I know. I am potentially going too far here. Yet the speed and contact rates lead me to think the worst case is the ultimate utility player. We are learning more and more about the value of high-contact hitters, and speed always kills. Here is a player who has played on the infield and could be a plus defender in the outfield. Can a player survive with no power at all in the majors? I would rather bet on Chandler being a future major league player than the majority of players that will get taken before him.
34 Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma
Peyton Graham became the belle of the ball along with Cade Horton during the College World Series. Graham was more of a day two guy before and during most of the year but some late adjustments to his approach made him a very different hitter. There is some imbalance in his walk-to-strikeout ratio, but the power and high BABIP are encouraging signs of a player who has a small chance to stick at short and have 55 hit and 55 power. His best tool is his speed which is plus. He played outfield in the Cape last year and there is currently a debate about moving him to second or third as the more likely landing spot in pro-ball. Some think he might be able to stick at shortstop and due to the value of the position, I think a team should at least let him try. It also pushes him up my rankings a bit as the chance does exist even if unlikely. His Cape performance a year ago was a concern for me, so that also pushes him outside of my top 30 which is where he seems likely to be drafted.
35 Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA) Committed to LSU
The thing that is likely to stand out in the 30s of my board is just how good the LSU recruitment class is and how unlikely it is they will see the majority of these players make it to campus. Mikey Romero looks like an average defender at shortstop long term should be able to stick at the position which helps increase his value. He is a premium hitter who will likely be compared to other smaller advanced prep hitters like Termarr Johnson and Jett Williams. I think he has a chance for above-average to plus hit with his approach and bat speed. His power is likely average, but that overall profile of an average defender at short with just above average hit and average power is an upper-tier starter. He is a good athlete with a strong enough arm to handle third and is the type of player the league tends to value more than the draft industry.
36 Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammon High HS (SC), Committed to LSU
I think anyone who watched 15 minutes of Tucker Toman's film would guess that he is a coach's son. I also want to give his dad credit because while he coaches an extremely successful Middle Tennessee State program this is the rare time a coach didn’t end up with the son who is an elite recruit coming to play for him. We often see kids go to play for their dads at small programs and it does end up affecting draft stock as opposed to being successful on the biggest stage. I don’t think he gets to LSU anyway but still good on the Tomans. He looks like a professional hitter already. His ability as a hitter is what gets him drafted likely in the first round. The focus is typically on his ability to make contact and use the whole field as a switch hitter. I think people are sleeping a bit on his power which should be above average to plus when you look at the bat speed and current exit velocity numbers. His future position is up for debate, and there will be those who view Toman as a likely 1B/DH, which would push him down my board another 10 spots. I think there is a chance he stays at third base due to good instincts having again been a coach's son. Maybe he could play right field as the arm is plenty strong. Either way, the bat is what carries him, and I see a plus offensive profile.
37 Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield (IL) Committed to Notre Dame
I am not sure if anyone else has Murphy in the top five prep arms in this class. He is a great athlete and one of the top-performing two-way players in the country this past year. He is a legit draftable prospect as a hitter, but most agree he will stick on the mound even though he doesn’t have the ideal size. Murphy is 6’1” which makes him an undersized right-handed pitcher. There are still those out there that will look at that height and think he can’t hold up as a starter. This is foolishness to me. He has shown steady improvement with his fastball both in terms of velocity and movement. He has also shown multiple effective secondary offerings, the main one being his slider. He has the ¾ delivery that a lot of teams prefer and having the slider/fastball combination screams out certain teams like Cleveland in terms of a prototype arm. If Murphy was 6’4” he would likely get talked about as a top 20 pick instead he is viewed more as a second-rounder. In some respects, he is the opposite of Ferris, whose ceiling put him slightly higher on this list. I could very much end up wrong because outside of his size I really can’t give you a reason that he is not higher.
38 Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy (FL) Committed to Mississippi
I know this is sacrilege to many. Ferris has played against some of the best competition he could by being at IMG. He has the prototypical build and velocity for a left-handed pitcher. He has shown advanced secondary offerings as well. He is a consensus top 20 player in this class. One is my view on prep arms which I have stated enough by now. Second, the delivery is different and he doesn’t always repeat it. This often leads to issues with command. Those last few words are always scary to me. It is hard to break habits for any pitcher at any age. Some teams do it better than others, but Ferris will likely make me look dumb if he goes to the right team or dumb if he goes to the wrong one. Nothing derails pitchers more than control or command issues and delivery issues often lead directly to that. I admit he has front-of-the-rotation ability. I am just leery of being the one to pay the cost and take the risk if I ran a team.
39 Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas
Before the college baseball season began Peyton Pallette was widely viewed as the top college pitcher in the class. This was a bit of a surprise due to him being an undersized right-handed pitcher. He stands all of 6’1'' which along with his injury will likely push him further down boards than he should be. Palette’s arm bothered him towards the end of 21, and then it acted up again and ended up requiring Tommy John Surgery. This means he has barely pitched in college accumulating just 61.2 innings over his first two years. He put up strong numbers a year ago in the SEC but did falter a bit towards the end again due to health issues. When he was one he had a fastball that sits low 90s and touches upper 90s. His curveball is the best in the entire class, a potential 70-grade pitch with some unreal spin rates. His change-up was a real weapon against lefties which is part of the reason I think he should be able to stay a starter. He is still developing and not quite where one would expect the typical college junior to be due to Covid and injuries. Still, a team in the second round will likely get a player that if he had been healthy this year would have likely ended up a top 15 if not a top 10 selection. He could also profile as a killer reliever if starting does not work out for him.
40 JR Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge Island HS (WA) Committed UCLA
Of the prep pitchers that were in the original top five grouping Porter, Barriera, Lesko, Ferris, and Ritchie. I feel like he has the greatest range of views. I have seen him anywhere from 20 to 50. Part of the reason is the right-hander is below that ideal 6’3” height, part is due to him being an older prospect already having turned 19, and another part is due to a solid mix of pitches but one without that killer offering right now. He shows three solid pitches all with the chance to be above average. He has clean mechanics, and an easy delivery which along with just staying healthy in general has helped him. He lacks some of the ceilings of the other pitchers in this class. A team that is drafting him is doing so because he is a safe prep arm with good present stuff and a clean delivery that one hopes to unlock more out of. He could end up much greater than the sum of his parts as there is a pathway to him having three plus pitches. In a class with this many interesting prep arms, he is the seventh one in the last 20 picks, there will be a lot of debate, and at least one if not two of these players are likely headed to school. There is a lot of needed growth across the board which pushes him down a bit for me.
41 Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Kumar Rocker was a top 10 talent for me a year ago. He got a bit overhyped due to his college postseason performances. Rocker had struggled with consistency but when he was on his fastball/slider combination was one of the most dominant in college baseball over the last few years. He would be in the top ten of this class as well if I knew what scared the Mets off a year ago. The danger in not agreeing to share medicals before the draft is exactly what happened to Rocker. For as much as people slam the Mets, just remember the Astros did the same thing with Brady Aiken, and thanks to that they were able to land Alex Bregman. The question is what has been shared since the medicals and if the little pitching he has shown this spring has done anything to lighten concerns. He is an unknown with the chance to be a solid number two type of arm. If his agent, Scott Boras, is not willing to share the medicals then I would not be willing to draft him if I was a team despite the talent. Teams rarely get scared off by medicals, so when they do I take notice. His talent would put him in the upper tier of this class, but his healthy questions push him here for me.
42 Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
Carson Whisenhunt is another pitcher who missed this season but it wasn’t due to injury but a suspension for a banned substance. He has pitched in the Cape this summer, but has been very rusty and has generally struggled with his performance. This adds to the difficulty in where to consider Whisenhunt as there is just one year of performance. The upside for any team that drafts him is that he is healthy and can pitch the rest of the year in the minors without any issue. When the majority of college arms get shut down he can jump right in. He is a low 90s lefty with a plus change-up. Whisenhunt is very much the traditional lefty starter. His fastball is good enough and his offspeed offering, change-up, allows him to miss bats. He needs more development due to his suspension but a team could also just let him pitch the rest of the year in low A to make up for the loss. It is not the most exciting profile, but Whisenhunt looks the part of a rather safe selection who is likely to be a back-end starter. In a class where most of the college arms are rehabbing he will be ahead of them due to just being healthy.
43 Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell
This pitching class lacks first-round talent but it is incredibly deep after the first 15 to 20 players. I expect there will be quite a run in round two because that is where the value will be for arms. This is my 11th arm since and including Dyan Lesko at 20 and the next player is going to be another pitcher as well. Harrington is a draft-eligible sophomore who gave Campbell university another reason beyond Zach Neto to come and catch some games. Harrington is a strong athlete and yet another former quarterback who became a pitcher. He has not been pitching for very long, and since he is a small school player there are a lot of reasons to think that there is more growth potential than in the typical 21-year-old college arm. He didn’t become a full-time pitcher until his junior year of high school and didn’t get a full senior year due to the pandemic. He had to walk onto Campbell to get his chance to keep pitching. This past year his walk per nine was under two with a walk per nine of nearly 11. He was untouchable in the Big South all year long. He is likely a backend or mid-rotation starter. His best traits are his command and his control. He might not have a single plus pitch but he mixes four pitches and hits his spots which allows them to play up. He is likely a safer arm in this class, but when a player has this short of a track record he could also be a player who sees a big jump when he gets pro coaching and a singular focus on the game.
44 Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee
I know I am significantly lower on Tidwell than most. Yeah, he hits 99 with good movement and has a plus changeup and a nasty slider. If he was healthy he would be 30 spots higher but he wasn’t healthy this year and missed time with a significant injury that ended up healing enough to let him pitch down the stretch for Tennessee. He pitched 39 total innings and was kept on a tight count when he returned. His command is better than his control and he has always been a bit home run prone. He missed bats this year when he did pitch, and with his pitch combination, he should miss a lot of bats in the future. I think his command is good enough to start, which is frankly a more important factor than control. We have seen teams that are less concerned about control issues than command over the years. Yet when I see both of those traits as potentially below average along with the health issues and Tidwell is the last of this tier of college arms for me due to having a lot more risk in the profile.
45 Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson
Max Wagner is a draft eligible sophomore who was a bit under the radar coming out of high school. He wasn’t even the top third baseman in the state of Wisconsin back in 2020. The guy who was one AJ Vukovich did get a seven figure bonus out of high school so there is that. Wagner was the fifth-rated player in his state overall and was a part-time player as a freshman for Clemson with 99 plate appearances. To continue on this theme of overlooked, he didn’t get an invite to the Cape so instead went home to Green Bay to play in the Northwoods League where he was one of the top performers. He got his shot this year and proceeded to unleash moonshot after moonshot on his way to 27 home runs. He did this with a near-even walk-to-strikeout ratio. He had a 17 percent walk rate and a 19 percent strikeout rate showing a good eye at the plate and ability to work counts. His high BABIP shows quality contact rates. There is debate: can he stick at third, he was a defensive replacement there to start his career, or will he end up a corner outfielder. I would be tempted to try him at second where his bat would play up even more. He is not the biggest guy and the track record is very short, which is going to likely push him to the second. But it takes one team to think he is an undervalued player and I could see him late first or the competitive balance round due to his production.
46 Cooper Hjerpe, RHP, Oregon State
The best pitcher in college baseball this year might have been Cooper Hjerpe. The Oregon State lefty was pretty much unhittable with a delivery that causes a ton of deception along with a slider and change-up that he can spot and flash plus now. It is interesting to see the debate on him as some say models will love him due to production yet I think that is not the correct view. Yes, models love production which Hjerpe has. Yet the past few years of seeing pitchers with funky/different mechanics and how effective that is against college and lower-level players also do not seem to translate to the majors. I can’t help but wonder if models don’t also have a box for players whose approach might be flawed or potentially hold them back. There is a reason no one in the majors has a delivery like Hjerpe and is a starter when you do see it. It is exclusively bullpen arms. While it works at the college level I am not sure it would at the higher levels as a starter. There is a chance and the production along with the command and control he showed plus his secondary offerings give him a chance to break the mold. Yet I also recognize the majority of successful outcomes for Hjerpe involve him being a reliever.
47 Cayden Wallance, 3B/OF, Arkansas
I often complain about the evaluator who marks down a player for not being more than they are. One needs to look at what a player does and not what you expected them to do or thought they should add. Wallace is a solid hitter who does a bunch of things but might not have a single carrying tool. Wallace was one of the top prep players to make it to college after the shortened 2020 draft. The draft-eligible sophomore, I know there are a ton of them this year which is in part to the draft being shifted more than a month later than it used to be, has been a starter from the drop for an Arkansas program that had upwards of three potential first-rounders in the fall based on some rankings. He is yet to hit for big power but the exit velocity numbers show a player who has plus power but has not really applied it fully in-game. There are also some contact concerns though his strikeout percentages were not awful in college and his walk percentages were good showing a player who might be a bit too selective. This is where things start to thin out a bit for me. Every single player needs a step forward in at least one area of trait to be a major league talent. For Wallace you are hoping he sticks at third, there is debate, and taps into his power while posting league average or slightly below on-base percentages. He hit 20 doubles this year along with his 16 home runs, and solid production across the board in the SEC. If you are buying in you think more of those doubles can turn into home runs at least enough to make him a starter at third or in a corner outfield spot.
48 Trey Dombroski, LHP, Monmouth
How much value can you put into 31.2 innings? For Trey Dombroski, those might be the most important 31 innings he ever threw. Dombroski is a 6’5” lefty from a small program in Monmouth which has had 23 draft picks, 20 players drafted, one first-rounder, and two major league players. Dombroski was a dominant force in the MAAC during his career. His career walk per nine is 1.4, and his strikeout per nine is 10.75. This year it was over 11. This is all great but the level of competition limits what you can gleam, so those 31 innings where he was one of the best pitchers in the Cape Cod League last year were huge. He walked two batters while striking out 45. He performed better in the Cape than he did at Monmouth. His best pitch by a large margin is his slider. His fastball sits high 80s and low 90s. There is a lot of risk to his profile due to the lack of a consistent third pitch and a below-average fastball. Over the past few years, some teams do better work with mechanics and modeling with pitchers. For instance, the Guardians added over 5 mph to Tanner Bibee and Trent Denholm less than a year after drafting them and they are not alone in such successes. With his size, and clean mechanics along with being a small school player, I am betting on him being a player that can add more. He is not the typical junior here but a player who is going to enter a new world of coaching and technology. He has the build to be a potential backend starter right now in terms of pitches along with his control and delivery. He might be more of a depth starter but he looks like a future major leaguer. If he goes to the right team I think he could end up being one of the steals of this class.
49 Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
I expected to have Jud Fabien higher than this. He has plus power and plus speed. He is one of the best defenders in this class and slots into one of the premium positions in this class. He cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walks this year. Yet as the year went on his strikeout rate started to rise and his contact rate dropped. He has a very good chance to be a starting centerfielder due to his power, speed, and defense. He also walks at one of the highest rates in college baseball which is another point in his favor. I just do not know if he will make enough contact to be anything more than a platoon bat. Since he is right-handed this limits his opportunities even more. One might look at his BABIP and say he is unlucky, but in college, it is typically a sign of quality contact and ability as a hitter. The low numbers there for a player with his speed just are another reason I have become leerier of Fabian as the year went on.
50 Clark Elliott, OF, Michigan
Clark Elliot is another guy who finally got a chance to be a full-time player and exploded on the scene this year. He used the Cape as a springboard and has not looked back since then. He played right field for the Wolverines, which is a bit odd for a player with his speed and profile. I am not sure if this is due to concerns about his ability to play it or just college baseball coaches being weird. He did play center in the Cape where he led the league in on-base percentage. Elliot hit 16 home runs this past year which is a big jump in terms of his power production both in limited reps as a sophomore and in terms of his power production in the Cape. If you go full-bore on Elliott the comp I have heard or read in three different spots is Michael Brantley due to having a bunch of tools that could be 55 or better, but also being a player who might have more growth potential. I do have concerns about the low exit velocities in the Cape and am not sure that he ever gets beyond average power at best. Yet I think at worst he is a useful platoon player who can cover all three positions in a pinch, provide speed off the bench, and get on base. There is a chance for more than that, and as we continue to see the value in contact hitters I think a player like Elliot rises a bit. I think he ends up being an average defender in center field with plus speed and plus on-base skills which is an upper-division starter. I also think he is a safer prospect just in terms of the floor being a good fourth outfield type.
51 Reggie Crawford, 1B/LHP, UCONN
No player in this entire class was more hurt by an injury than Reggie Crawford. I have no idea where to place him but he is like an even less experienced Jaden Hill who went in the second a year ago. Crawford was a player I mocked just outside of the top ten in my way too early mock. I talked about his chance to go 1-1 at the time. Then he didn’t pitch this year due to Tommy John Surgery. Crawford is a 6’4” lefty who pitched eight innings at Connecticut and four innings for Team USA as a reliever. In those four innings last summer he hit triple digits and showed a slider that looks the part. In 2021 he was mostly a first baseman and left fielder for the Huskies and his athleticism was clear for everyone who saw him last summer. The question was could he be a starter, would he develop a third pitch, how would he hold up? Instead, there was nothing, so how much value do you place on the rarity of what Crawford is due to his size, velocity, and athleticism. The upside is you are getting a blank slate to develop and work with. The downside is he will be 22 before he can start pitching regularly again for you. Is there even enough time to work with him to be a starter? I would think so, but it is a massive risk with a chance that Crawford never becomes more than what he is now. He is at 50 because I wanted to talk about him and say it is a situation in my 14 years of covering the draft I have never experienced. Ninety percent of the tape on him is as a first baseman from his time at Connecticut. He has thrown less than 20 innings over the summer and in college due to Covid and injuries. There has never been a bigger wild card, and drafting him is saying we believe in our developmental coaches and programs.
Bonus: Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas
Melendez is a first base only, really a likely DH who is 22 years old already. Those combinations of words in my last sentence typically would lead a player to be someone I would not consider in the top five to six rounds. Yet I am a stat guy, and the stats are impossible to look past. It is not a great comparison either when all I could think about with him was Brent Rooker who at a similar age put up huge numbers in the SEC and has struggled to stick. Yet the power production is unheard of, and he wasn’t a human windmill even with the home run production. He was a 16th-rounder by the Marlins a year ago and will go higher this year. It is a hard profile to project due to position, age, and questions about his hit tool. Just in terms of production though he hit 32 home runs, flirted with .400, and walked more than he stuck out. His nickname “The Hispanic Titanic”, is worth a second-round pick alone. If I drafted him I would drop him in High A and see if he can swim. I am also assuming that he is going to be a saver sign for some team too which brings him a little more value. Melendez deserves every bit of press and much like with Niko Kavadas a year ago I think there is a potential for a good player here. Also a reminder to check out what Kavadas has done since I listed him as my bonus player a year ago. In later rounds basically, once day two starts taking a player who produced at a historical rate isn’t the worst thing.
Just Missed in no order at all but all were considered for this list
Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa; Jordan Sprinkle, SS, UCSB; Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech; Jake Bennett, LHP, Oklahoma; Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida; Tristan Smith, LHP, Boiling Springs HS (SC) Committed to Clemson; Hayden Dunhurst, C, Ole Miss; Landon Sims, RHO, Miss State; Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH) Committed to Louisville; Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East HS (IL) Committed Vanderbilt; Cade Horton, RHP/SS, Oklahoma; Sonny Dicharia, DH, Auburn; Sal Stewart, 3B, Westminster Christian HS (FL) Committed Vanderbilt; Bryce Hubbart, LHP, FSU; Cade Doughty, 3B, LSU; Alex Freeland, SS, Central Florida; Drew Thorpe, RHP, Cal Poly
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