Way Too Early Mock 2022

 A long-standing tradition is for me to post my way too early mock on the day after the season ends for all teams whose seasons are over. I am rarely right when I do this outside of the back-to-back years I was able to predict the White Sox pick (Vaughan and Madrigal). Honestly, so much changes that the chances of anyone being correct this early out are rather low. The point is it is fun, and also to show the directions these teams historically have gone. 

In a lot of ways, this is the purest mock I will do, all about the history and tendency data. There is no smoke or rumors. There are no agents or scouts passing me bad information. It is just a look at what teams have done over the years. 

This was often one of my top three articles I would write in terms of hits both at Scout and 247, so while I write for fun now I enjoy keeping this tradition alive. I also will do a sleeper for each pick to give a little more depth of thought. Remember to bookmark and check back as teams get eliminated the mock gets updated.

1 Baltimore Orioles Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

Sleeper Jud Fabian, OF, Florida or Chase Delauter, OF, James Madison 

The Orioles have a great minor league system, but one that lacks shortstop prospects in general. There is some talk Lee might move off the position as he gets bigger and strong and grows into more power. I would not be in a rush to give up on the idea of him sticking at short. I gave Lee an early second-round grade out of high school. He went to play for his dad at Cal Poly and put on a show. He is extremely young for his class. He will remain a teenager until December. He put up amazing numbers and did a bit of everything. In terms of age-based and stats-based models, Lee should rank very high which fits with the Orioles approach.

If one believes the talk, Fabian was headed to the Orioles in round two before Boston drafted him and refused to meet his price. I will again take a moment to say that was worse than anything the Mets did on draft day. Fabian right the ship in the SEC improves as the season went on. He is another player who is young for his class, and if the Orioles decided to go major saver early to spread the money around Fabian makes sense of Delauter from the small school. 

2 Arizona Diamondbacks Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL) Committed University of Miami 

Sleeper Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

So I am writing this before I know who will have the top pick, but based on the teams picking up here I still feel like I can safely guess. Outside of the weird 2020 draft, where no one got an extended look at any player, the Diamondbacks have gone for athletes with loud tools and high ceilings. Green by many has been called the best prep talent in a decade. There was talk he would have been the top prep talent if he could have declared last year. He has a chance at multiple 70-grade tools. 

The top college prospect for me is Lee, and I could see any team falling in love with the coach’s son with high-level college performance. 

3 Texas Rangers Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

Sleeper Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

It would be too perfect to put the Jung brothers back together, but if the Rangers are picking third and the draft plays out this way I would expect it. Jace is a better prospect than older brother Josh. I really need to do a deep dive study, but on surface examples, this seems to be the case a majority of the time. Jung has mashed in college hitting 21 home runs while striking out less than 20 percent of the time. He walks a lot as well and has been nearly a perfect college hitter so far. The only issue is where does he play? His footwork and arm seem to be both issues at second and third. The bat would play at first, but I would think his best home might end up being left field. End of the day the bat is all that matters really for Jung.

Catchers rise up draft boards and one with bloodlines and production is likely to go early.  

4 Pittsburgh Pirates Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU

Sleeper Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays High School (GA) 

The Pirates are interesting as in the trades they made they went for players who were further away from the big leagues. They took high upside and toolsy gambles. Then on draft day they took who I thought was the top player, and saved some money with the college bat to then chase ceiling later. Berry to some might be the top bat in this class. He was a force of nature at Arizona as a freshman and chose to transfer over to LSU with his coach. He has a chance to prove himself outside of Arizona and in the SEC. A strong year here will put him safely in the top tier of college bats in the class. As a freshman, he had 17 and struck out under 20% of the time with a walk percentage over 10. He did very close to what Jung did at Texas Tech but did it a year younger. 

If the Pirates instead what ceiling then Termarr Johnson is your man. He rivals Green for tools, and again Green has been talked about as a special-level prospect for the last few years.

5 Washington Nationals Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

Sleeper Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA) Committed Vanderbilt 

The Nationals are pretty much impossible to nail down for any mock, especially one this early. They take sliding talent, specifically a player whose stock was higher before play began. They trust the whole of the data more than the recent data which leads to taking injured players or someone like Brady House who was the most famous player in his class for a majority of his high school year. Since I just don’t have the data I went with Parada here who had first-round talk as a high school player but ended up at Georgia Tech. First off let’s be honest Georgia Tech is to catchers what Georgetown once was to centers. They also get better, they translate well to the pros, and there are very few examples of failure. Parada was known more for his defensive tools as a high school player but excelled at Georgia Tech last year. He hit over .300 with a strong BABIP which is an indicator for future success as a hitter. He had 20 doubles, which is also easy to see those turning into home runs as he gets stronger. He is a safe bet to catch and has a bat that potentially could make him one of the best players at the hardest-to-find spot on the diamond.

The Nationals have liked prep pitchers before and Lesko stands out to me. 

6 Miami Marlins Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays High School (GA) 

Sleeper Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Marlins have been all over the place when it comes to the draft. I think they have done a fantastic job in the draft in general spotting and taking talent that comes to them. They are not afraid to take risks or big swings. They have taken a lot of players both college and prep with sky-high ceilings. Johnson is one of the best athletes in this class and when you look at his percentiles on Perfect Game he is among the elite of the elite in every category. There is debate if he can stick at short or if he moves to second. Either place the bat will play. There will be concerns with height as well, but the Marlins shown consistently size doesn’t scare them. 

DJ Shivlik came from Vanderbilt as a recruiter and I believe was there during the recruitment of Rocker. This is likely too high for him as teams will remember the Brady Aiken situation a little too freshly, so it would take a person who knows him and has the trust to draft earlier on.

7 Chicago Cubs  Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

Sleeper Reggie Crawford, 1B/LHP, UCONN

The Cubs have had two drafts under new scouting director Dan Kantrovitz. They could not have taken two different players with those top picks in Ed Howard and Jordan Wicks. The only common theme with them as they were both middle-of-the-country players. The Cubs have taken a mix of prep and more stat-driven players. Kantrovitz came from the Athletics where they often went for up the middle talent, college performers, and athletes. Catchers with track records of success go early. One who also had elite pop times and exit velocities dating back to high school go very early. Susac had 37 extra-base hits this past year at Arizona while limiting his strikeouts. He has a very strong arm and profiles as an above-average to plus defender. His power is still coming, but he has plus power potential. Yes, there is also the bloodlines factor as well with his older brother has been a big-league catcher. 

Reggie Crawford is the Ohtani of college baseball, or he should be in 2022. It’s hard to rank him due to limited chances to see him pitch. But he has a legit chance to crack the top overall pick discussion. 

8 Minnesota Twins Andruw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (GA) Committed Vanderbilt 

Sleeper Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA) Committed Vanderbilt 

There was some debate for me here as the 2021 draft saw the Twins change their approach and go away from power bats first, second, and third. They went for the power pitcher instead. Here they have a chance to draft the top prep arm and to many Lesko would be the top talent left in general. They also have the chance to take Druw Jones who has a lot of Bryon Buxton to his game, which should be no surprise when you consider that he is the son of Andruw Jones. Jones is an ideal fit for what they have looked for the majority of their drafts. His power potential and defensive upside in center and just general athleticism with his size could end up making him a much higher pick when it is all said and done. When one looks for the tools that make an elite outfield prospect he has them all. 

Lesko would be the pitcher who makes the most sense here if they went that way. 

9 Kansas City  Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA) Committed Vanderbilt 

Sleeper Gavin Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas 

The Royal’s approach over the last few years is one can never have enough impact arms. Their new owner came from the Indians, and they seem to be trying to make their own pitching factory. Lesko is frankly too good to pass on here. Last year they went a little off the board with the first-rounder, but Lesko would be hard to pass on as he is one of the more complete high school pitchers in recent years. The mechanics are clean, velocity is in the upper 90s, secondary offerings developed, and command is plus. The only real concern is the general risk of a prep arm.

If the Royals did want a bat then why not draft Dayton’s son who is a legit top half of the first-round talent. 

10 Colorado Rockies Reggie Crawford, 1B/LHP, UCONN

Sleeper Carter Young, SS, Vanderbilt 

Well, the elephant in the room is data for the Rockies doesn’t matter right now as a new front office will likely get to make the call when the draft occurs next year. It has been a mess for the Rockies for a while and even with a late push a change is needed. Crawford is too good to even be on the board. He is a lefty who hits 100 and doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm most college kids have. He needs a lot of development as a pitcher but his stuff, velocity, and athleticism give him as high a ceiling as any college pitcher. He should be given a chance to develop as a two-way player as he is a legit centerfield prospect as well. Right now he looks more like a reliever and potential outfielder. Yet if he can show a third pitch and just getting reps, in general, should allow more confidence in his fastball/slider mix which both appear to have plus potential if not more.

Shortstops are the quarterback of the MLB draft, and Young is a glove-first who also hit 16 home runs last year. 

11 New York Mets Brock Jones, OF, Stanford

Sleeper Carter Young, SS, Vanderbilt 

This is another pick that is hard to project as the front office is likely to see a different power balance for next year. This is the failure to sign Kumar Rocker pick for the Mets. If Alderson remains in the loop on the pick I would expect a college bat here. The reasons being Alderson’s history and just the overall strength and depth of this class is college bats in general. Brock Jones as a freshman played safety on the Stanford football team before giving it up to focus on baseball. As one would guess he is a plus athlete who is strongly built and hits like a safety. He had an ISO of .335 which helped him hit 18 home runs. He walked over 18% of the time while striking out just 22% of the time. I feel like a year ago he would have been a top-seven pick easy, but due to the depth of the college crop, he slides a bit. Right now he looks like a do it all type with a chance to rise up boards with another strong year and steady improvements. 

Young will be a common sleeper until he comes off the board due to his power and defense profile.

12 Detroit Tigers Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy (FL) Committed to Mississippi

Sleeper Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas

Everyone and their mother knew the Tigers liked Jackson Jobe, but the same source of information told us that Marcelo Mayer was the player they hoped would fall to them. They had a chance at both and went with Jobe. The Tigers have not drafted a shortstop in round one since Scott Moore in 2002, sadly I did not have to look that up I remembered that fact. They have drafted just three shortstops in round one in their draft history. Of late, they seem to talk to prospects and go for the player on the board with the highest bonus demand that somehow high demand equals most talent. Often they do go together but not always. The Tigers have also been more prep-focused with firsts so I debated Ferris against Porter here and in the end, both arms can get it up there and have similar size so when all things are close one goes with the lefty. I know Tigers fans likely will not like this pick, but one can never have enough arms.

I don’t know why I had a very strong idea that Moore might be a Tigers target outside of liking SEC players, but I just looked at the list of names and thought Moore to the Tigers that fits. 

13 Los Angeles Angels Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison 

Sleeper Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida

Everyone talks about how the Angels only drafted pitchers last year, but what also stood out is that they drafted 19 out of those 20 players from the college ranks. In addition, they also went with smaller school programs with their top two picks. Chase Delauter would by near consensus be the top player available. He was a top producer on the Cape hitting more home runs in the Cape than he did his entire freshman year. He was one of the hardest players to strike out last year striking out just shy of 11% of the time. He is the rare player who walked more than he struck out as a freshman. The big story was the Cape where he led the entire Cape in slugging and home runs. He might stay in center, but it seems more than likely he will end up in right field with a chance to be a plus defender. He needs to tape more into his raw power, as at 6’4” with plus speed right now he is an intriguing combo of potential and current production.

If the Angels wanted to go with a college arm after Crawford it came down to Barco and Pallette.

14 New York Mets Carter Young, SS, Vanderbilt 

Sleeper Kumar Rocker (j/k seeing if you are paying attention) Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida 

Young is still on the board so he becomes a logically fit for a team that spent 19 of 20 picks on college players. One can never have enough shortstops, and their trade value is always peak. Young projects as an above-average to plus defender at shortstop. He had an ISO of .307 last year with 16 home runs. His power production and defense would traditionally make him a slam dunk top ten pick. He might still go there, but as teams become more concerned about strikeout percentages the fact Young had one of 30.11% last year is a concern. He also struggled to make consistent contact. Every place will talk about his stronger performance with contact as a freshman. I would just hedge that by saying it was a small sample, against weaker competition with a BABIP that was unstainable. While I often say high BABIPs are a positive tool for player evaluation, one needs a full season of data, not 20 odd games. I don’t want to run him down too much as the defense and power he showed certainly put him in the upper tier of college bats in this class.

If they went with a college arm I would think Barco who the Mets drafted out of high school makes sense.

15 San Diego Padres Landon Sims, RHP, Miss State

Sleeper Logan Tanner, C, Miss State

A pair of teammates here, though that was accidental, not something I planned. The issue here is that if Preller remains in charge then he has to know he is battling for his job. If the Padres don’t make the playoffs next year then Preller is gone. So this is a pick for the top reliever in the country who is a plus athlete who can reach the upper 90s and could help a team next year. He was the top reliever in the country last year with a strikeout per nine that was nearly 16 and a walk per nine under 2.5. His fastball-slider combo already looks pro-ready, and no player in this class is more likely to help a team in 2022 than Sims.

The Padres have traded for and drafted so many catchers and still don’t have a solid one. Tanner is the last of the potential first-round college catchers and the best defender of the group. 

16 Cleveland Indians Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida 

Sleeper Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas or Zach Neto, SS, Campbell 

The Indians drafted three Florida pitchers a year ago in Mace, Aleman, and Leftwich. If they added Barco he would complete the set of Florida starters from 2021. I think they see something they can do with arms from Florida to get more out of them. The Indians have typically targeted programs and teams when they see an easy way to get more growth or to improve the overall performance of pitchers. Barco fits the Indians mold pretty ideally. He had a strikeout per nine over 10 and a walk per nine under three. His slider is his best pitch, which is a favorite of the Indians when they target pitchers as well. He was talked about as a potential top 10 pick out of high school, but much like Mace and Leftwich has not seen the expected growth that many thought he would have at this point. He is similar to the pitcher he was out of high school. He has performed well, but there is more in his arm than he has shown.  

If the Indians went with spin rate Pallette might be the guy. His spin rates are the best in the college group. Neto fits the up-the-middle approach along with favoring players who perform well in the Cape. 

17 Philadelphia Phillies Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Marys HS (MI) Committed Clemson

Sleeper Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) Committed LSU

The Phillies followed the Dave Dombroski approach to the draft which was to go with the big-bodied prep arm or go with an outfielder preferably one with a lot of ceiling and athleticism. Porter could be a top ten pick and has a chance to compete to be the top prep arm in this class. He has the size and velocity that fits the typical approach and compares favorably to last year's top pick Andrew Painter. Outside of Porter, the next prep arms aren’t as big, so this pick was rather easy when one looked at what was still there. 

In terms of toolsy outfielders, Justin Crawford is the son of Carl Crawford and is a bit raw but has the tools one would expect based on his father. 

18 Cincinnati Reds Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (PA), committed Duke

Sleeper Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas

The Reds will draft anyone, anywhere but they do like up the middle athletes when they can find them. Young certainly fits that profile and is another player who has legit top ten ability in this class. All of his skills are above-average to plus. He is a plus runner now with a strong arm. His approach at the plate is very mature and he also has plus bat speed and shows strong exit velocity percentages for his age. He looks like he should be able to stick at shortstop as well. It is a deep class, so the Reds will likely do what they did last year. They will wait and see who slides there are always a few players who do. In this case, it was Young who stood out, and he would be a rather easy pick for the Reds.

If they did want an arm going with the spin rate darling Pallette would make a ton of sense. 

19 Oakland Athletics Jayson Jones, SS, Braswell HS (TX) Committed Arkansas

Sleeper Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas

The Athletics like up the middle athletes focused on ones with plus athletic profiles. Now while Jones is currently a shortstop most think that his long-term home will be third base. He is one of the more dynamic players in this class and after Green and Johnson is pretty safely the third-highest ceiling prep talent for me. He is a plus runner, has a plus arm, and has some of the best bat speed and exit velocities of any prep hitter in the class. This might be too late for him if I am being honest just due to the upside in his bat alone. He is a monster when it comes to hand-eye coordination and just overall body mechanics. He seems to always barrel up and with his physical traits, he just destroys baseballs. I couldn't help but see Manny Machado as I watched him. He is lower due to being more of a bat-first prospect as well as the depth of college bats which we have seen teams covet over the last few drafts. I would not be shocked at all if this pick ends up like Khalil Watson who I mocked in this range a year ago and watched him generate top ten hype before sliding a bit on draft day. Jones could play his way into the top of this class.

Robert Moore is a smart kid, who grew up around the game. He has performed well but doesn’t have loud tools and is undersized. He fits a lot of the Athletic’s boxes for a player who is going to be undervalued on draft day by the league. 

20 Atlanta Braves

Made the Postseason

21 Seattle Mariners Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas

Sleeper Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech

So the rule is this mock is only for teams that have been eliminated. I go back and add in players as teams get eliminated. Still I know who I would have going to the Braves. The Mariners went against everything last year when they took a prep player in the first round. Jerry Dipoto had gone out of his way to avoid prep players in round one so thoroughly it was quite shocking when he took Harry Ford. I am not sure if this shows a change or just how much they valued Ford. Pallette has been in play for nearly 10 selections. His profile and success in the SEC should appeal to the same front office that has drafted George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, and Logan Gilbert. They also are not as fixated on success and clean medicals that would distract them from a pitcher with the best spin rates in the entire class.

If they did go with a bat the complete game of Gavin Cross is the type they often go for over the sizzle of other hitters they might consider here. 

22 St. Louis Cardinals 

Made the Postseason

23 Toronto Blue Jays Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas

Sleeper Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) Committed LSU

When it comes to the Blue Jays we all know the one thing they love above everything else is bloodlines. Moore was supposed to be draft-eligible in 2020, but he enrolled early and got to play a partial season at Arkansas before getting a full-season look last year. He has physical limitations and lacks the arm to play anywhere outside of second. He is also all of 5’9” and 170 pounds. Yet doubt him due to size at your own risk. The switch hitter hit 16 home runs last year with an ISO of .275. He wasn’t a free swinger either walking over 14% of the time while striking out just under 18% of the time. As for the bloodlines he is the son of Dayton Moore and was about as raised in the game as anyone can be. He would easily go higher if not for his build, yet it also offers a team a chance at a legit steal based on his smarts, production, and knowledge of the game. I would bet he is the first hitter from this class to be ready for the big leagues.

If the Blue Jays want a prep player then Carl Crawford’s son Justin has the combination of raw tools and ability that would appeal to the Blue Jays brass. 

24 Boston Red Sox

Made the Postseason

25 New York Yankees

Made the Postseason

26 Chicago White Sox

Made the Postseason

27 Milwaukee Brewers

Made the Postseason

28 Houston Astros

Made the Postseason

29 Tampa Bay Rays

Made the Postseason

30 Los Angeles Dodgers

Made the Postseason

31 San Francisco Giants

Made the Postseason