Here is a mock I completed about two weeks ago, I lack an editor and the time to really go in-depth as much as I would like. Instead here is a quick hit of information, and in the end I figured better to post what I do have than not post at all. So sorry if your team does not have an in-depth explanation here. Every pick has one via the Locked On Indians podcast, you can go and download the episode with your team's pick. So there is an explanation in some form, also one can see reading this how much a dyslexic like myself needs a strong editor. Still if you have enjoyed my work in the past I hope you will look past any issues, and just enjoy free content.
1 Pittsburgh Pirates Sox Jordan Lawlor, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) Committed Vanderbilt Sleeper Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Let’s get nuts, everyone has Kumar Rocker here and I did too in the first mock. This was before I saw what the Pirates have done this entire offseason. While they went with the college bat a year ago every trade they have made has been about ceiling and players who are years away from helping.
Lawlor is still the top prep player in this class, and if the Pirates are set to go with prep ceiling and building towards five years from now then adding Lawler and maybe saving a few bucks, pun intended, could make sense.
2 Texas Rangers Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Sleeper Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
I flipped the two players I had listed here in September. Rocker is on the board, which would be hard to pass on for the Rangers. They have become a very conservative drafting team the past few years, so Fabian could still be the pick even with the draft's top players on the board.
I strongly expect one of these two names will be here on draft day.
3 Detroit Tigers Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Sleeper Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
SEC pitcher or toolsy outfielder which way do the Tigers go when they have a love affair with both of them. Hill is a wildcard in this draft and could end up number one overall. Fabian though has a safe track record, along with grade 55 or 60 across the board tools. In the end the long track record and ability to play center give him the edge for me here. Just a reminder the Tigers don’t draft shortstops in the first round with just two taken in franchise history.
4 Boston Red Sox Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) Committed USC
Sleeper Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
In the last mock, I had Jordan Lawlor here, but since he is off the board I went with the next best shortstop in the class. The Red Sox went prep early last year, and that was the MO for Bloom when he was with the Rays. I could see either the top prep arm or bat here. I went with Mayer as shortstops always rise, and prep arms always tend to get reordered as we get closer to the draft.
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5 Baltimore Orioles Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami
Sleeper Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
The Orioles were rumored to consider under slot deals in 2019 before just taking the best player. They went with an under slot player in 2020, so keeping in mind the idea of going under slot to save the money for later use and also knowing the heavy stat-based scouting that is used then Del Castillo stood out here. This is another one that stays the same. One of the safest easiest project bats in the class, there are questions as to where he will play.
6 Arizona Diamondbacks Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Sleeper Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Another one that stays the same for me, The Dbacks loved McLain out of high school. There was no bad blood causing him to not sign he just wanted to go to school. Since then his prospect star has only risen, so here is a chance for them to get the one who got away. They went a little more conservative in 2020 after going very risk heavy in 2019, so they could go either way with this pick.
7 Kansas City Royals Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) Committed Tennessee
Sleeper Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
The Royals cause headaches for me as they can be a bit all over the place in the draft. They have tended to avoid college bats, and have gone very arm heavy. They also have an affinity for famous prep talent. They have grabbed players who were viewed at the top of the class even if their star has dimmed a bit. In the debate between the star pitcher and the strap prep player, I went with the prep talent for the Royals who had been linked to several prep hitters a year ago before taking the college pitcher Asa Lacy.
8 Colorado Rockies Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Sleeper James Woods, OF, IMG Academy
I debated arms here more than anything else. The Rockies had been one of the most conservative teams in the draft until last year. If they wanted to go with tools then Woods would stand out from the class. Yet it would be hard to pass on either Leiter or Hill who would be the top players on the board for most. I went with Leiter over Hill due to the advanced secondary offerings and the thought that he is a more developed and refined pitcher at this point. While I will likely have Hill over Leiter on my board here I thought Leiter better fit with the Rockies.
9 Los Angeles Angels Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Sleeper Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
Hill is the last of the players on my board who have top pick potential. He just fits as the top prospect on most boards at this point. There is a lot of risk and a lot of helium. I could see him falling out of day one or ending up going top three in almost equal measure. The stuff is fantastic, but the track record is so small also the recent track record of LSU pitchers has not been ideal in terms of the draft, with apologies to Austin Nola most pitchers have seen their stock decline during their draft-eligible year. Hill is raw, but his arm speed and athleticism both point to a pitcher whose best days are in front of him and one with legitimate top of the rotation potential.
10 New York Mets Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
Sleeper Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) Committed to NC State
There is a new front office in place, but it is the same as a previous front office so we do have some data. During this time with the Mets Sandy Alderson often took a mix of college and prep talent. He also took a healthy mix of arms and bats as well, so it is hard to nail down a specific area of focus. The breakdowns are five prep players to five college players and four arms to six bats. Most have the Mets on college players early, and the one time they did have picks in the top ten under Alderson he went with college bat Michael Conforto.
Hence why I go with Alex Binelas who was one of the best hitters in the country as a freshman. He didn’t get a chance to do much last year, but who did. A top player from a top program, who has a chance to lead the nation in home runs seems like an easy fit right here.
11 Washington Nationals Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Sleeper Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Nationals take sliding or talent whose stock has tumbled. They like to buy low in the draft. This is often why they are associated with injured players, but they also might grab a player who was viewed before the season as one of the top in class but had a lackluster season. They have taken a lot of arms over the years in particular both from the prep and college ranks. The prep arms have not been as successful for them which is why I went with the college arm here.
12 Seattle Mariners Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Sleeper Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn
Some things are safe in life, like picking the Mariners to draft a college player in the first round under Jerry Dipoto. This has been one of the biggest constants in the draft, and over the past few years, they have gone college pitcher time and again. They have tended to go with players who had strong college performance data as well in the areas of strikeouts and walks. There is room for debate about the top college arm at this point with about a half dozen contenders. I went with a lefty, who might also have the top changeup in this class and a higher floor than the rest of the college arms.
13 Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
Sleeper James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (FL) Committed Mississippi St
This another pick that stays the same. It became even more likely once Dave Dombrowski became the new general manager. He loves big prep arms, toolsy athletic outfielders, and SEC pitchers. While there are several interesting SEC arms and toolsy outfielders it would be hard to pass on his pick of the prep arm talent. Andrew Painter has been the top arm in this class for a while, and it is rare to see the top prep arm at the top of the board at the start and end of the process everything about Painter fits perfectly here in terms of team value and his class rank.
14 San Francisco Giants Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Sleeper Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
The Giants have gone with up the middle college performers over the past few years. They go for positional value often and look at power potential and athletes in general. While Frelick is listed as an outfielder there is thought he could end up at second base long term. Frelick is a plus athlete who excelled in hockey and football as well. He was the Gatorade player of the year for the state of Massachusetts as a quarterback. While he is never to have much power there are reasons to think he could fit the Giants profile due to his athleticism, up the middle potential, and higher growth potential than the typical college player. I am all for multi-sport athletes and think it helps them long term. In this case, it is part of the reason he has more growth potential due to the short time focused on baseball, along with being a cold-weather player, injuries cutting short seasons, and playing for a program that while solid is not a consistent draft producer. There are so many indicators for growth here if Frelick has a breakout spring then I expect him to go in the top 10.
15 Milwaukee Brewers Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) Committed to NC State
Sleeper Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Brewers are a bit hard to lockdown here. They have been college heavy, and have gone for a lot of performers who might have been viewed as overdrafts but whose production has stood out. They also tend to draft with positional scarcity in mind. It is clear that their board is a little different than most, but they do value athletes and they have a history of taking sliding talent. Last year for instance they took Garrett Mitchell who was the top talent on the board, but a player whose tools had not translated during his college career. Before this, they took Brice Turang when he dropped from a potential top ten pick. This is my long way of saying they would be very tempted by Watson, one of the better athletes in this class, and one of the highest ceiling players in general. He could easily be a top ten pick and was very tempted to put him to the Red Sox and several other teams as well. He was just too good to stay on the board any longer.
16 Miami Marlins Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Sleeper Christian Franklin, OF, Arkansas
The Marlins have become one of the more college heavy teams early over the past few drafts. I am curious to see if this will continue for them or not. Their amateur scouting director was a recruiter at Vanderbilt, and due to this, he had more knowledge of the college players just having been involved in scouting and recruiting some of them.
Henry Davis is a fascinating prospect. He was a backup as a freshman and came out of the game on fire as a starter during his sophomore year. While his sophomore production would be nearly impossible to keep up over a full season, if he produces as expected he could see his name go a lot higher than this. The fact he catches at Louisville means that teams know he can handle a variety of high ceiling and high ability pitchers. His defense is viewed as his strongest skill.
17 Cincinnati Reds James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (FL) Committed Mississippi St
Sleeper Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss
18 St. Louis Cardinals Josh Baez, OF/RHP, Dexter Southfield HS (MS) Committed Vanderbilt
Sleeper Levi Usher, OF, Louisville
19 Toronto Blue Jays Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY) Committed Clemson
Sleeper Isaiah Thomas, OF Vanderbilt or Luca Tresh, C, NC State (Making a bloodline list now)
20 New York Yankees Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Sleeper Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (OH)
21 Chicago Cubs Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Lands HS (PA) Committed Virginia
Sleeper Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss
22 Chicago White Sox Levi Usher, OF, Louisville
Sleeper Steve Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
23 Cleveland Indians Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Baseball Academy (PR) Committed Florida State
Sleeper Harry Ford, C, North Cobb High School (GA) Committed Georgia Tech
24 Atlanta Braves Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Sleeper Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn
25 Oakland A’s Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Sleeper Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA) committed Arkansas
26 Minnesota Twins Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (TX) Committed to Texas A&M
Sleeper Malaki Knight, OF, Marysville-Getchell HS (WA) Committed to UCLA
27 San Diego Padres Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (OH)
Sleeper Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss
28 Tampa Bay Rays Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss Sleeper Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (OH)
29 Los Angeles Dodgers Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn
Sleeper Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
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