As as in my tradition here is mty first mock for the 2021 season. This mock always drop on the first day after the season ends, and only includes the teams elimated form the post season. I will add more picks to the mock as teams get eliminated from the post season until the mock is complete.
1 Pittsburgh Pirates - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Sleeper Jordan Lawlor, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) Committed Vanderbilt
The Pirates locked up the top overall pick even with a hot stretch to end the year. When I am writing this, they had 19 wins, and four had come in the last five days. It is not a great spot for a team that has graduated a ton of talent in recent years. The minors for the Pirates are not particularly deep, and several top young players seem to take a step back this year, which has to be a concern for all in Pittsburgh.
There are worse things than landing Kumar Rocker, who had number one overall talk coming out of high school. He ended up going to college after being an early favorite, along with fellow Georgian Ethan Hankins. Rocker already had so much going for him, then he went to Vanderbilt and was a starter quickly into his freshman year. As a freshman, he was phenomenal, looked even better as a sophomore, and is pretty much the consensus top player in the entire class. It is a safe profile that checks every box as a potential future ace.
If the Pirates decided to go with a bat earlier, Jordan Lawlor has the type of ceiling that would make a team consider him for the top spot.
This should be an easy pick for the Pirates. Last time the Pirates had the top spot, they took Gerrit Cole. Rocker is a better prospect right now then Cole was back before his draft year.
2 Texas Rangers Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Sleeper Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Rangers have gone from one of the most aggressive risk-taking draft teams to one of the most risk-averse over the last two years. This seems to be in part due to issues with their development of players. The previous three first-rounders to have a career bWAR over six are Joey Gallo, Tommy Hunter, and John Danks. A majority of their first-round who made it tot he majors did so with other organizations. While they have also been very active in Latin America, those players’ development has been equally an issue.
The Rangers were trying to contend this year, and instead end up with the second overall pick. In this draft, the safest player who is worth taking this high is Jud Fabian. Fabian early enrolled at Florida and has been productive both at Florida and in the Cape. He has shown a bit of everything in terms of skills at Florida. There will be those who nitpick his hit and miss, but that rate is always likely to be higher in any player with a walk percentage over 15.
Fabian is a centerfielder who is projected to stay there. He runs well, but his hit and power are the tools that stand out along with his approach at the plate. Fabian is an incredibly patient hitter, and that will help him move quickly through the minors. He would be the top prospect in the Rangers minors from day one and would give them another hitter with a walk percentage over 15 during their final year in college baseball and a rate over or at 10 percent for a college career.
If Rocker were to fall here, it would be tough for the Rangers to say no.
3 Detroit Tigers Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Sleeper Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami
There was a lot of debate for me with this selection. But one thing kept coming back to my mind: the Tigers don’t draft shortstops in the first round. They have taken four players listed as a shortstop in round one, with two of those players moving off the position extremely quickly. Only Jerry Manual and Tom Veryzer were true shortstops, and they were taken in back to back first round in 71 and 72. Since then, not one shortstop, which is basically unheard of.
They could take Adrian del Castillo, who has the safest bat in the class, but while this has been a mostly conservative front office, they don’t tend to go with players with his limited profile. They do love are SEC pitchers, and I know Tigers fans have many arms, but there are worse things than building a stable of pitchers as some will miss, and others will get hurt.
Hill is a relative unknown, pitching a total of 23 innings over his first two years. But when he has been on the mound, he has been electric. He is the one player I feel could unseat Kumar Rocker for the top pick even if Rocker pitches as expected. Hill has all the tools to be a front of the line starter if he dominates the SEC, which he likely will due to athleticism and one of the best fastball/slider combos in the college ranks, then Hill will be the 1B to Rocker’s 1A. If you are the Tigers at three and are looking at the best player available and love velocity and SEC arms. Then Hill is going to be hard to pass on.
If the Tigers go with an arm, there are a pair of SEC arms in Jonathan Cannon and Jack Leiter that will likely be in play. Cannon is the bigger power arm the Tigers tend to prefer. Leiter, though matches up well with pitchers like Skubal and Mize in the Tiger’s system.
4 Boston Red Sox Jordan Lawlor, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) Committed Vanderbilt
Sleeper Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
If you look at this draft class and think about who is the player who the Rays would likely draft here, heck who they might take first overall, it is Jordan Lawlor who stands up as an up the middle athlete with power, speed, and athleticism to spare. If you told me that he was the next young star in baseball in five years, I would not be surprised at all.
Chaim Bloom came over from the Rays last year and took an up the middle hitter whose hit tool, in particular, stood out. They then used the saving there to add another first-round talent in Blaze Jordan in round three. Lawlor just stands out as such an ideal fit and also is one of the top players in the entire class. Brady House was the more prominent name before the summer began, but it was Lawlor who had all the talk when the summer ended.
I have Fabian higher, as I tend to value safety more on draft day. I mention this because Lawlor could end up the better player and hitter of the two. I think the ceiling is higher, but there is always a high risk with any prep player. I have said shortstops are the quarterback of the MLB draft, and the last prep shortstop I had rated this highly was Royce Lewis in 2017.
In terms of a sleeper, some so many players could be in play, but the Rays have always been fans of prep pitchers early.
5 Baltimore Orioles Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami
Sleeper Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
The last two years have seen the Orioles front office go for high performing bats with power production and high averages. If you have read my stuff before, you know how I preach about the value of BABIP as an indicator of hit school. I also have to note the Orioles have been consistently grabbing players with high BABIP as well. Castillo has had strong BABIP data even though he is not the most fleet hitter, which is a positive sign about his future hit tool.
There are concerns about Adrian del Castillo’s ability to play catcher long term, but there are no concerns at all about his bat. His bat makes him the safest player at the top of this class. The bat will play anywhere. If he can stick at catcher, he would be a steal even though he would be unlikely to play there for the Orioles. This is a player with more extra-base hits than strikeouts in college.
We have seen Major League baseball cut a few minor league teams to save money. So long term money savings of robo-umpires will certainly cause teams to vote for and start using them sooner rather than later. When that happens, the ability to frame pitches and general catcher defense, in general, will lose a lot of value. This makes it easier to project Castillo at catcher long term.
If the Orioles look to save money, then Ethan Wilson could be in play, as he put up video game numbers as a freshman at South Alabama.
6 Arizona Diamondbacks Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Sleeper Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The fact the Diamondbacks loved Matt Mcclain back in 2018 was one of the worst kept secrets in baseball. Everyone knew they would draft him. Most expect it in the comp round and not the first round. McLain decided he wanted to go to UCLA and would agree to be redrafted by the Diamondbacks.
McClain struggled as a freshman but has looked great on every stage or stop since then. He played some outfield in college, but most think he can stick at shortstop long term. He might not win any award there, but he should be an average defender. His profile is very similar to what it was out of high school. He is viewed as a complete hitter. I have some concerns about his walk to strikeout percentages, which makes me hesitant to project him with a plus hit tool.
If McLain is gone, then Leiter would make a lot of sense based on the pitchers they have had success within the last few years. They are not an organization that gets caught up in player size. Instead, they would get another pitcher with bloodlines and developed secondaries like they did this past year with Bryce Jarvis.
7 Kansas City Royals Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Sleeper Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
The Royals are a headache to project for me. They have been very conservative in general during their rebuild outside of Bobby Witt Jr. The fact they viewed him as a generational talent says more about Witt and shows he was more of an outlier selection for them. For the most part, the Royals have loaded up on college arms in particular over the last few years. While they do not have the Tigers, Braves, or Padres cadre of young arms, it is still an impressive collection. Would this make them look away from arms early?
When I looked at the history of the Royals and the draft Nick Loftin this year was the first first-rounder on a college bat since Hunter Dozier. They have gone with college pitchers early, often, and repeatedly. Many might think that Jack Leiter would make sense here, but Dayton Moore likes his arms big, which leaves you with one player right at this point, Jonathan Cannon.
I am confident this pick won’t be a prep arm, but I am not sure beyond that. If Binelas is health and hits for the power most think he has, then he could be in play here or even higher.
As for Jonathan Cannon, much of what I said about Jaden Hill applies here just not quite as much. Cannon barely got a chance to pitch last year but looked great when he did. He is an upside player who is poised to break. He is a draft-eligible sophomore who should get a chance as a Friday starter in the spring. He has the size, pitch mix, and velocity that teams look for early in the draft every year. Cannon stands out much like his teammate Cole Wilcox a year ago as a player whose draft value has the broadest range in this entire class.
8 Colorado Rockies Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Sleeper Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) committed USC
The Rockies until this year had been on a very conservative stretch in terms of drafting. The question is, did they change because it was a weird draft, or is it due to changes in the organization. Leiter would be viewed to many as the top player on the board. There have even been rumors that some prefer him to Rocker at Vanderbilt.
Leier is another draft-eligible sophomore. There are many in this class after the draft was pushed back to July for 23021. Players like Cannon would not have eligible if not for this change. Leiter, though was always going to be a draft-eligible sophomore.
Leiter is undersized, slight, and has a limited track record. A lot of his value is tie4d to what was seen of him in high school. The Rockies have had more success with guys with advanced secondary offerings than they have had with big velocity. Leiter, who knows how to pitch, is much more likely to be successful for a team like the Rockies than one of big velocity arms here.
If the Rockies did want to go prep, then the top prep hitter here is Marcelo Mayer.
9 Los Angeles Angels Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
Sleeper Chase Burns, RHP Station Camp HS (TN) Committed Tennesse
Before I wrote this article, the inevitable hammer dropped on Billy Eppler, ending his run as GM of the Angels. The rumor over the last week is that Dave Dombroski might be the target. He would be an interesting general manager as his go-to maneuver has been liquidating the minors to get talent on the field in the majors.
He drafts high ceiling big arms with big velocity. Or he takes the outfielder with the most tools, and speed in particular possible. There is not a high ceiling prep outfielder here that makes a ton of sense right now. There are several interesting prep arms, and among that group, Andrew Painter has stood out as the group’s best.
Painter has the best combination of size, projection, and current stuff, which should see him go in the upper half of the first round. He is also likely the safest of the top tier prep arms in this class. If they wanted to just go with the highest velocity and ceiling among high school arms, then Burns would be the choice here.
10 New York Mets Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) Committed Tennesse
Sleeper Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) committed USC
The Mets picking this high is astounding for a team with the offense they had on the field this year.
The Mets might also be one of the easiest teams to project when it comes to the draft even though there are just two years of data. The Mets believe you go with high-end talent, pay a high price, and make up for it with savings later. They are all about quality over quantity. They have gone with polished prep bats the last two years before taking an expensive arm with their second selection.
House and Mayer could both be off the board by this pick. If they both are on the board, Brady House fits the Mets profile a bit more than Mayer. He has a better overall offensive profile. There was a time when House was viewed as one of the top three players in this draft and could end up still going in the top three picks before net July.
Mayer is the safer pick due to position and defense, but House has some of the best power among the high school group.
11 Washington Nationals Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) committed USC
Sleeper Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
A few weeks ago, it looked like the Nationals might end up with a top-five pick, but they closed the season strong and instead are sitting at eleven. It works out well for them as they grab an elite defender at shortstop with the physical tools to hit at the top of a lineup.
The Nationals approach is often college heavy, but they do target sliding talent in general in the first round of the draft. They sit and see who falls to them that they did not expect to be there and then react. In this case, Mayer is clearly, for me at least, the top player on the board. He might not be Lawlor in terms of tools, but he is not eight picks off either in terms of talent.
If Alex Binelas is healthy and hits for the power that he has, then he will likely go in the top five picks of this draft.
12 Seattle Mariners Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
Sleeper Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Alex Binleas I briefly mentioned above, but wanted to wait to dig into him until this selection. I had him much higher at points when I laid out this mock. The class’s overall depth means someone will slide, and as of now, that is Binelas due to an injury a year ago and positional concerns.
As a freshman, Binelas was one of the best hitters in the country. He hit for power, average, and walked over ten percent of the time. It was a complete offensive profile, and he even limited his strikeout percentage when you consider the power and walks relative to most hitters.
He broke the hamate bone in his hand last year and got in two games during the shortened season. This combined with the fact that many think he might end up a first baseman or left field, only type push him down boards.
Another big year, and he could be in play to the Tigers and Orioles, in particular in the top five picks of this year’s draft class.
Hoglund was a competitive balance first-rounder by the Pirates who struggled as a freshman, then added a slider and was one of the country’s best pitchers last year in limited starts.
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13 Philadelphia Phillies Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Sleeper Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss
This is a team that I think is very likely to see a change in running the team and the draft. So I took the approach that Ethan Wilson was rather clearly the top player on the board and Jackson Jobe a player I wanted to mention and there you go with the Phillies pick.
If Klentak does stay the general manager, Wilson would be in line with his picks outside of Mickey Moniak and Mick Abel. Wilson is a smaller school, highly productive player like Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. He put up video game numbers s a freshman, and most people are buying both his hit and power tools. He is strictly a leftfield, though, pushing him down a bit in an extremely deep draft.
In most years, a player like Wilson would be a slam dunk top 10 selection, but the depth at the top has made it impossible for all the top ten talents to go in the top ten. For teams who did not make the playoffs this year, they get the benefit.
In terms of Jackson Jobe, I do not think there is a player who did more in terms of making himself money over the summer than Jobe. His size will be an issue for some, but his spin rate data made many take notice.
14 San Francisco Giants Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Sleeper Steve Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
The Giants approach early in the draft the last three years is to take the best college hitter on the board. In this case, that would likely be Cowser, who will likely end up the highest draft player ever from Sam Houston State.
Part of me wanted to put Henry Davis, just because the Giants have used two of their last three first-rounders on catchers. Davis would arguably fit here in terms of value. He has consistently had to catch some of the best pitchers in college baseball and was off to a great start before last season ended.
Instead, I went with Cowser, who is viewed as a potential top 20 pick mostly due to his power potential. He makes strong, solid contact and covers enough ground in centerfield that he might be able to stick there long term. He will never be a great defensive centerfielder, but he has a chance to be a very productive centerfielder for whatever team drafts him.
Hajjar is here as another potential top ten pick to know in this very deep class. Like many other arms in this class, he has just a handful of innings due to injury and the shortened season last year.
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