Since I have started writing, I have always looked forward to and done a Shadow draft on the Cleveland Indian draft each year. We often do not agree on picks, which is fine. It makes these pieces a lot more interesting than if I just redid what the Indians did. I am not saying the Indians made poor choices or had a bad draft. In fact, I think the Indians had a great draft.
The way of the draft is always high amounts of disagreement, and the best person is right 10% of the time. So view this piece as my thoughts and not a critique or referendum on what the Indians did.
The rules are I have to spend what the Indians spent, but this year has a caveat. The Indians spent under slot for the first time since the slotting system began. I am not sure if it is a sign of things to come or just due to a weird draft in a bizarre year. This made it harder to manipulate the pool as there was no day three to spend those extra savings as there has been in the past.
I did two versions of this piece. The first was with Petey Halpin and the second with Logan Allen. I had to choose which player I went with after changing the earlier picks and spending more on day one. If I kept Halpin, I would have had to spend 5K more than the Indians did to be able to net value in round four. If I did not, it gave me more flexibility. Read on to see what I ended up doing.
Pick 23
Original Pick Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
New Selection Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks HS East (PA)
There were three of my top 20 players left at this pick, and Nick Bitsko was the highest. I had him ranked 10th in this class and the top prep arm in the entire draft. The other two players were Tyler Soderstrom and Dillon Dingler. If you were curious, the three players taken who had not been in my top 20 were Garrett Crochet, Austin Hendrick, and Nick Yorke.
All prep arms are risky, but when I looked at recent data, it turns out that prep hitters are not all that much safer. Bitsko ceiling is up there with any pitcher in this class, and I would have ranked him the top arm in the Indians minors. After reclassifying, Bitsko is young for this class, has less wear and tear, and shows two plus offerings and a useable change.
The Indians looked for ways to find value with every pick; taking Bitsko here means I have to save money later with lesser talent. Bitsko ended up going just one pick after this to the Tampa Bay Rays who draft as well as anyone right now.
Pick 36
Original Selection Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
New Selection Dillion Dingler, C, Ohio State
This one should come as no surprise if you have read my predraft pieces. Dingler was very tempting at pick 23 and would have saved even more money than Carson Tucker. By taking him at 36, I am spending more than the Indians yet again. Dingler cost 350K more than Burns. I am willing to spend that as I had Dingler at 14 on my board and Burns 35. Burns was a good value, but Dingler is too good to pass on.
Dingler is a raw athlete, but one who showed improvement across his game this year. If he had a full season, I think he would have been one of the breakout players of the years. If catcher does not work out long term, Dingler could always move back to his previous position of centerfield. He is that type of athlete, and his power potential will allow him to stick anywhere.
Catchers are the most significant risk in the draft, but Dingler is a player one could get a great deal on as over a full season, he would have likely forced his way into the top 12 to 15 players on every board. He ended up going to the Tigers with the first pick in the second round to start day two with pick 38.
Pick 56
Original Selection Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
New Selection Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
Here is the first pick I keep the same, at first I had an undershot signing here to also afford Halpin in round three. I love the Halpin pick, but without those money-saving early signings, I did not have the room to keep both players.
I went with Allen as I had him rated much higher between the two players. Allen was 32nd on my Big Board, and after a pair of risk picks, I also liked the relative save selection that Allen represented here. I could have maybe squeezed in Clayton Beeter, who I had higher ranked, but Allen’s safety made me stick with him for this selection.
I have written about Allen at length already, but he the exact time of arm that the Indians excel developing. He is a plus athlete, with great control, polished secondary offerings, and a clean delivery. He will no longer be a two-way player, which, combined with the Indian’s skills at player development, should make Allen a player whose stuff gets better in the Indian’s minor league system.
Pick 95
Original Selection Petey Halpin, OF, Mira Costa HS (CA)
New Selection Levi Thomas, RHP, Troy University
This pick is mostly about money savings. I am saving 1.445 million dollars, which allows me to go over slot with the next two picks and go over slot for Bitsko in round one. I had to find money savings somewhere.
My secondary thought process for Allen or Halpin is that while the Indians excel with pitchers with Allen’s skill set. They have really struggled with outfielders with Halpin’s skills. The Indian’s track record with prep outfielders has been spotty at best. The top three outfielders as a team that you have drafted and developed since 2000 are Ryan Church, Tyler Naquin, and Luke Scott. The only prep outfielder draft in that time to play 100 games in the majors drafted in that span is Clint Frazier. So that made it extra easy to stick with the pitcher.
Halpin is a great prospect and does a bit of everything, and could be the player who breaks through for the Indians.
In terms of Levi Thomas, he went to Padres in round four to help them get the money to sign Cole Wilcox. Thomas is undersized, doesn’t throw hard, and played at a small school. He turned 22 at the end of June, also making him old for a junior. Yet there was no player in college baseball whose boxscores I was more excited to check out every night. He was putting up some of the most obscene numbers by a pitcher in the entire country. He struck out 42 in 23 innings and allowed just one run. One of his four starts was against Florida, who was ranked the number one team in the country, and he shut them down completely. He should not have been as good as he was. I was intrigued enough to pull the trigger here. I could have spent a bit more on another player, but after looking through the draft, the one I liked the most was Thomas.
Pick 124
Original Selection Milan Tolentino, SS, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
New Selection Milan Tolentino, SS, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
The debate here was, do I go with Tolentino, or maybe look to Colt Keith, who was a bit cheaper to the tigers in round five. I also considered Joe Boyle, who was a mess at Notre Dame but has the tools to be either a top-end closer or a number two type of arm.
In the end, I went with the bat, and I went with Tolentino even though he cost more than Keith due to talking to people I trust and knowing myself. Players like Tolentino I often miss on. He is not dissimilar from Tyler Freeman or Tony Wolters. It is a type of player the Indians have drafted early and had a lot of success with in terms of development. Tolentino is never going to be viewed as a high-end prospect, but he could be a very good one.
When a player can stick at short, and there are mixed reports on Tolentino, all one really needs is average production. Tolentino has a chance for average tools across the board. This would make him a potential top 20 shortstop in baseball. Shortstops are always a need for teams, and always a great trade asset even when you have a good one.
He was the safest of the players I looked at, which combined with bloodlines, positional value, and fawning reports from people I trust make me keep Tolentino. Once again, knowing what the Indians do well in terms of player development is a significant part.
Pick 154
Original Selection Mason Hickman, RHP, Vanderbilt
New Selection Mason Hickman, RHP, Vanderbilt
This should come as no surprise if you listen to Locked On Indians, which I host as part of the Locked On Network. I have discussed how Hickman might be the best pick in this entire draft for the Indians.
The value of where they got him, and how much he signed for compared to the other selections gives him a chance to be the best value. The reason I think this could occur comes down to four points.
One Hickman was one of the best pitchers in the SEC, which is the best conference in college baseball. Second, he fits the Indian’s developmental mold and is the type of pitcher that often ends up adding velocity or seeing a jump in his pitches. Third, he is a big pitcher at 6’6” and has not added any velocity during his college years. He is very much a refined version of the arm he was out of high school. Lastly, the crop of Vanderbilt pitchers in 2019 and 2020 was notable for the lack of development or growth. There were many arms people thought would add some velocity and turn into first-rounders who ended up being day two picks. Not sure what happened, but ontop of Hickman not adding expected velocity guys like Chandler Day, Jake Eder, Hugh Fisher all come to mind.
One last comment here at the end, if you are curious about the money of it all. I ended up spending 92,700 less than the Indians with this Shadow Draft. So in terms of my spending, it leaves me a total of just shy of 750K under the amount one could spend without losing a pick.
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