I wanted to post the Big Board here, as I get it out over the next week. 51 players deep, which is smaller than the past few years. But the draft is also smaller this year.
1 Austin Martin, OF, Vanderbilt
Over the years, I have become convinced that baseball is horrible when it comes to evaluating hit tool. In general, it seems to be more about how pretty a swing or how likely they are to use the whole field than anything else. I started out as an Indians writer and can tell you that Tyler Naquin and Bradley Zimmer were listed as the best present hit tools in their entire draft classes. This should have never been the case with Zimmer, who struggled with high K percentages even in college. I bring this up because I think that there are stats that show better indicators then what gets used. I am looking at BABIP and strikeout and walk percentages for players to determine the likelihood of future success. Martin excels in this area, as hard as it seems to be to judge hit tool I would bet a lot of money on Martin being the best hitter from this class. While I think the best offensive profile belongs to Spencer Torkelson position does matter. There is more value in a 70 hit 55 power second baseman or centerfielder than in a 60 hit 70 power first baseman.
2 Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
I have been saying it for a decade, but first base is the offensive guard of the MLB draft. They tend to slide a bit, especially when they are not hulking behemoths. The fact that Torksleon is a right-handed 6’2” first baseman will lower his grade in a few eyes. This does not matter as much to me. I am more concerned about the recent history of hitters from Arizona and Arizona State, which has seen a high percentage struggle. The last successful pro bat from Arizona State was Kole Calhoun, who many judge on the decline of his career now. We see it as a more significant issue in bats from New Mexico. Still, the Arizona climate does seem to have an effect as well. I mention this as it is the only issue. I could see Torkelson working in left or just staying at first. The bat is one of the top three in recent years. I could not care less about his height. He has done it all offensively just draft him and let him move through the minors. He was well on his way to being one of the greatest power hitters in NCAA history. While the list is mostly full of failed major leaguers, I think there is almost a zero chance that Torkelson does not turn into a plus regular. I would be more surprised if he was an average MLB player than if he won an MVP or three.
3 Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
He is too small. He is unathletic. He plays in New Mexico. He plays for a small school. He looked bad, facing top competition this year. He did not do well in the final weekend series. There are a lot of reasons people give for dropping Gonzales right now. I will not be among them. His last weekend was unfortunate, but on the other hand, Asa Lacy pretty much made everyone look silly this year. Gonzales crushed the Cape, and a year after putting up video game numbers made those numbers seem small in comparison. He had a legit chance to have the single greatest offensive season in NCAA baseball history based on his early performance. There are reasons for concern, which is why he is third. I will trust the Cape performance, though, and go for the safer talent who has been extremely productive. He has more power than he gets credit for, and being smaller doesn’t mean one can’t hit for power. Just keep doubting Gonzales. He does his best, the more you doubt.
4 Asa Lacy, LHP, TAMU
He might be fourth on the board, but one could make a case he is the top college pitcher of the last three years. I am not that person as I was big on Case Mize, but to others, his stuff and left-handedness could give him a higher ceiling. I was a big proponent of Lacy out of high school, but now, he is almost an entirely different pitcher. His stuff took a big jump over the last three years. His velocity went from the low to high 90s. This does raise some injury concerns in the back of my mind. His command and control regressed a bit as he has worked on harnessing his newfound stuff. This can take time, and talking to pitchers in the minors, some never seem to get back the command they once had. There is some reliever chance in his profile, but by and large, most seen a potential front line starter. There are few lefties with his stuff and velocity. He also has a track record as one of the better pitchers in the SEC during his entire career. He dominated the best competition throughout his career. I will bet on the young for his class lefty, with three plus pitches, and a track record of success versus the best.
5 Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
The truth is if Meyer were 6’4” instead of 6’0”, he would be a possible number one overall pick and would likely be a top-two lock. His fastball/slider combo is the best in the draft, and his change looks like a solid third pitch. Despite his lack of size and short history as a starter (pun not intended), he has a history of maintaining his velocity late into games. He has hit 100 late into games without any issue. He has just 15 starts during his career, mostly due to him starting out a reliever until partway into his sophomore year. He was the closer as a freshman showing how much trust the coaching staff put into him. He has been pretty much unhittable, and when he has been hit, it was very weak contact. He hits his spots, misses bats, and rarely walks anyone. He is third among the college pitchers on my list due to his size and velocity. There is always a great chance of arm injury with smaller pitchers with high velocity. At the same time, this felt low as I wrote about Meyer watched videos and looked up his stats. He is the perfect pitcher for the modern age and could be used in a variety of roles, all of which he likely to excel in. Besides, honestly, I don’t see why he could not help a team this year out of the pen. His change needs work, but his fastball and slider ar major league pitches right now.
6 Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
It is ok, go ahead and tell me all the things Detmers can not do. I will wait. Over the last two years, he has been the best pitcher in college baseball. He misses a ton of bats and rarely walks anyone. He has plus control and command and advanced secondary offerings. Yes is fastball is a low 90s pitcher, but his secondary offerings are all above-average to plus. There is good spin rate data out there as well on him. This is often the missing part of the picture. When a player might lack velocity but still finds success, it is due to the spin on their pitches. Detmers is a safe well developed left-handed pitcher from what has become the top pitching factory in the NCAA. He reminds me of a left-handed Shane Bieber and think he is being vastly discounted in this draft as he is steady over sexy. I get the fastball concerns but aren’t we past the day and age of fastball velocity being a be all or end all of pitchers in any form.
7 Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Committed Florida
Zac Veen could end up the top prep hitter in this class. Going back through the first round, the last prep hitter who was the top-rated prep hitter to become the best in their class was Manny Machado. Remember, Bryce Harper went the JUO route to qualify a year earlier. In general, I think prep hitters are nearly as risky as their pitcher counterparts. I did the research. If one takes every first-round prep hitter and pitcher from 2010 to 2015, the number to reach the majors was 52 percent of the hitters, and 47 percent of the pitchers. I bring this all up here to explain why prep talent is lower on my board. It takes longer to develop, and the risk is higher. Could Veen be a five-tool player absolutely, could be Bubba Starling absolutely. He has all the tools one needs, but what makes me feel most confident is his plate discipline. If you want to find a prep hitter who is more likely to succeed, look for an advanced approach. He is expected to end up in a corner spot, but it is not guaranteed. There is really no negative for me outside of the risk associated with a prep talent.
8 Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
This will surprise many, having Kjerstad this high. I would rather gamble on a player who was one of the best bats in the best conference in college baseball over most prep players. It is as simple as that. Kjerstad is a better athlete than he gets credit for, having played center field for most of his run with Arkansas. He will likely move a corner spot in the pros, but I think he could above-average defender there. His power is among the best in the class presently. He has shown plus present power and had shown a much better approach at the plate in the early going of the year. He comes from a very athletic family and has an older brother who was drafted as well. There is a high chance he will be a successful player than many of the names taken ahead of him. The long track record, along with tools being the ones that are easier to define. This should mean he will move quickly through the minors.
9 Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
I am torn on Emerson Hancock. The stuff shines, and some of his data is great. He has the build one looks for along with the velocity that a decade ago would have made him the top pick. The problem is there are too many questions or concerns. There is not a ton of game experience in college. He dealt with injuries a year ago, which limited him. Another issue is why did he not dominate with the stuff he showed. He should have missed more bats; this is a red flag for me in terms of future performance. There is talk the trackman data is not great, which could explain some of that as well. The bottom line the stuff is there for a front line starter, but there are myriad reasons for concern, which pushes him down on the board. I wonder if he might make a developmental leap as a pro, as Georgia’s pitching record has not been good for a long time.
This is where the first grouping of talent cuts off for me. There is either more risk or less ceiling with the next group. Each player in the top group is a player. I feel very comfortable projecting as an above-average or better player in the majors. The next group felt a bit interchangeable and huge going for the next 30 or so players. From 10 to 40, it is a significant change. Yet in groups of ten or so, I would not argue if you moved anyone up or down. While it was very easy to lineup the top nine names, the next group caused a ton of debate and moving around. Basically, the top nine are set in stone for me.
10 Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA), Committed Virginia
Nick Bitsko is one of the hottest names of late in the draft. He did not pitch once this spring, but after reclassifying, he now has a chance to be the first prep arm off the board. This alone shows foresight and intelligence. While it is a deep class, the prep arm class was weaker. Bitsko knew that he would have a chance to be one of the top arms and reclassified to join that group. Now he is one of the youngest players in this class. He has less wear after just two years of high school baseball and is a player teams can work with to mold. He is not a completely blank slate, as has been shown with his clips on social media. He combines old and new school love with the mix of high velocity and high spin rates. The numbers have been exceptional, and at this point, those numbers also provide more information than we have on other arms. He has present stuff and room for growth.
11 Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS (TN) Committed Vandy
Robert Hassell has the best hit tool in the prep class, but you know my feelings on those statements. I am a bit lower on him than the field. I think he is very close to PCA in terms of profile. Hassell gets the nod as he will likely have the better power profile down the line. There is debate about if he will move off-center. There are also debates about how much power he might have down the line. The hit tool is the carrying tool. Honestly, what stands out with him to me is how many people I trust who rave about Hassell. The reason he is not higher is due to the risk. When the carrying tool is one that we know is extremely hard to judge, that is a concern. There is not another plus tool, which, along with the defensive questions, made it impossible for me to slot him in the top 10 even though he will be drafted there.
12 Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL) Committed Oklahoma State
I do not believe Ed Howard got to play at all this spring. The shortstop from Chicago has seen wild fluctuations in his stock, which I attribute to some people seeing a top 10 talent and others a second-rounder. The reason for the divide likely stems from how much power you think he will have along with if you think he can hit enough to access it. Howard is different from the typical prep shortstop, the concerns here have nothing to do with his ability as a defender. As a matter of fact, his defense is his best tool. He is a bigger kid, but everyone thinks he will stay at shortstop long term. Howard looked great over the summer, and if he had a chance to prove himself in the spring, he could have been a top ten pick. The tools are there for a special shortstop, a top defender with above-average to plus power. Positional value matters, which does help push Howard up the board.
13 Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR), Committed Oregon State
Mick Abel has been a steady top arm in this class since the summer. I have almost come to expect the prep arm ranks to be completely shaken up by the time the draft approaches. It seemed odd that Mick Abel was still my number two arm and had moved up my board. He has the prototypical build at 6’5”. His height helps his fastball, which has some sink to it. He could have four above-average pitches with his slider, fastball change, and curve. While his velocity is good, it is not too good where it makes you concerned about potential arm injuries. Bottom line he does everything well and feels like the safest prep arm in the class while still having front of the rotation potential
14 Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
I have talked about Dingler at length and can also tell you that I have heard that there are teams higher on him than I am here. Dingler started out in centerfield for the Buckeyes before moving to catcher. He was a three-sport athlete in high school, and it shows. He is still learning the position but has the arm and quickness to be at least an average defender. His power is more raw than in-game, but most think it can be a plus tool. He had always had lower strikeout percentages in school and seemed to be in the middle of a breakout when the season ended. He was also a two-time captain at Ohio State, and the work ethic is off the charts. He still runs like a centerfielder making him one of the faster catchers I have seen. This, along with his athleticism and overall room for growth, will make him just the fourth first-rounder in Ohio State history and the first since Alex Wimmers in 2010. He has a chance to be the highest pick in school history if he goes higher than 16th, where Nick Swisher went back in 2002.
15 Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
Patrick Bailey is one spot lower than Dillon Dingler because his ceiling is a bit lower. Bailey lacks elite skills offensively and defensively but is very well rounded. He showed more power as a freshman, but as a sophomore displayed a better eye at the plate. The reports on his defense are that he is above average defender at catcher with no skill that pops, pun intended. In terms of stats that stand out, the strong BABIP in college, along with walking nearly two times for every strikeout as a sophomore, are extremely positive signs. I know the big knock is on his hit tool, but those two areas show a player who might be a better hitter then he gets credit for. Bailey won’t be a sexy pick, but he does a bit of everything and does it all, either average or above average. The only catchers who can claim that are Realmuto, Grandal, and Sanchez. In other words, if Bailey can live up to what he projects to be, he is a top-five player very quickly at the hardest to fill position in baseball.
16 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) Committed Vanderbilt
Every single year we see a player who has been on the radar for a long time slide. Familiarity breeds contempt, and it seems teams stop looking at what a player can do and look more at what they wish a player could do. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a traditional centerfielder. He runs well, plays excellent defense, and has an arm that would work in rightfield. He has a long track record of hitting and hitting well against top competition. He is not the biggest guy, and power is unlikely to be a part of his game. The profile is there for an above-average to plus centerfielder due to defense, speed, and on-base skills. He is the safest outfielder in this class, as the tools would profile well to a fourth outfielder role if his hit tool did not develop as expected. PCA plays an elite position well and has a history of success against the best pitchers in the prep ranks, making him my third prep outfielder.
17 Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
Here is another top SEC performer. Foscue is known for his hit tool but also posted 14 home runs as a sophomore showing more power than one might expect from a second baseman who stands six feet tall. He could end up with 55/55 grades for his hit and power while playing an average second base. He broke out as a sophomore and built on that over the summer. He was continuing to build on into the spring. He has always had a strong eye at the plate, which should help him move quickly through the minors. I believe in the bat, which is why he is here over some more prominent names in this year’s draft class.
18 Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Garrett Mitchell is, in a lot of respects, the same hitter he was three years ago. He is still more tools than production and is yet to put it all together on the field. Every report will talk about plus power, but during his college career, Mitchell hit just six home runs all during his sophomore year. He had an improving strikeout percentage every year, but still strikes out significantly more than he walks. His BABIP is incredibly high, but in his case is that due to skill or his blazing speed. I just don’t know what to make of Mitchell yet. I have Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of him, even though Mitchell has better tools as I think PCA is safer. Mitchell has the ceiling and risk of a high school talent, but instead of being a teen turns 22 this summer. In terms of physical tools, I don’t think even Zac Veen can match Garrett Mitchell. Still, the concern is when will we ever see the ability fully translate onto the diamond.
19 Tyler Soderstrom, C/OF, Turlock HS (CA) Committed to UCLA
Over the last month, there has been no player who has seen their rising of stock more than Soderstrom. I have him rated here due to ceiling and positional value. There is also no position with more risk than a prep catcher, which also stands out for me when I judge a player. Soderstrom is the son of a former major leaguer. He has the baseball IQ and polish that can only come when you grow up in the game or with someone who played it at a high level. His athleticism has been readily on display. Even though he has played more outfield than catcher in high school, most still think that catcher is where he is best suited to play. His plus power potential would really play up at the position and give him a chance to be one of the better catchers in the game offensively. There could also be the issue where his bat might outpace his defense at catcher. This could cause him to move off the position. I am not as sure about where he ends up long term. I know the bat players anywhere, and if he was just an outfielder, he would be the fourth rated outfielder in this class for me.
20 Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
The only real knock on Jarvis is his age. He was draft-eligible a year ago and turns 23 in December of this year, making him older than some seniors. He is the son of Kevin Jarvis, who had a very long pro career appearing in 187 games over 16 years. Bryce was a high performing marginal talent a year ago. His fastball went from the high 80s and low 90s to mid-90s this season without any issues with his control or command. His control and command were always his best tools. They were on full display this spring his four starts he pitched 27 innings had the first perfect game in Duke history and had a 40 strikeout to two walk total. The jump with his fastball to go along with an above-average to plus change lead to flying up boards. This improvement will move him from the 37th round a year ago to the first round in 2020. It is a very safe profile and one where he should be able to move quickly through the minors once drafted. The Yankees loss from a year ago will be some teams gain. In a deep draft for college arms, Jarvis has pushed himself up into the second tier of arms to know.
21 Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK) Committed Oklahoma
Dax Fulton is hurt. He had Tommy John surgery in Septemeber and won’t pitch this year. The lack of pitching is something he has in common with the majority of prep arms in this class. Fulton is a 6’6” left-handed pitcher who has one of the better prep curveballs. He combines this with a potential plus fastball to standout as the top lefty in this class. If Fulton was healthy, he might be the top prep arm in general. The injury is less of a concern than in most years as he is not missing developmental time since everyone is missing it. The ceiling here and likely outcomes are higher than the next few prep arms, which gives him the edge and makes him the number three prep arm in this class.
22 Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (PA), committed Mississippi State
This might be a shock as Hendrick is viewed among the top bats in the class due to his explosive power potential. He has some of the best bat speed in this class, maybe the best. His power potential is among the ten best in the class. While he is known for his power, he is a better athlete than he gets credit for and runs well. So why am I lower? There are swing and miss issues, along with overall concerns about his hit tool. The track record of players who are his size with maxed current builds has not been strong in recent years. Clint Frazier comes to mind. The power hitter with contact concerns is the hitter version of the big velocity arm with command issues. There is a very high ceiling, but the risk is a lot higher than with the typical hitter.
23 Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
Beeter is one of the few players who managed to see their stock jump significantly during the short college season. He is a redshirt sophomore after missing his freshman year due to Tommy John surgery. He later needed another procedure on that arm before returning to the field. He missed a ton of bats in 2019, working as a reliever pitching across 19.2 innings. This year he was a starter, and over four starts, he pitched 21 innings this year. His strikeout rate stayed high, but his command and control were much improved in his second year back from TJ surgery. I wish we could have seen more as his home run rate was high during this time, but this stat in small sample sizes, in particular, could be fluky. His present stuff stands out enough; some think that he could pitch out of the pen this year in the majors. There is risk, but his current stuff stands out as some of the best in the class, making him potentially one of the bigger steals on draft day.
24 Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
Much like with Emerson Hancock earlier, Wilcox did not seem to benefit from his time in school. He is still the big-armed righthander with command issues that he was two years ago. There has been talk that his stock is rising just due to the potential and the knowledge that there is a lot of growth potential. His fastball sits upper 90s and has hit triple digits. Both his changeup and soldier flash plus. Flash feels like the keyword here. Wilcox was the highest-rated player from my 2018 big board to not sign. I predicted then he could go number one overall in two years. All the reasons I had for that statement are still valid. In terms of stuff and ceiling, I would match him up with any arm in this class. The issue is the lack of development, which means both his command and control are well below average right now. He was phenomenal in the early going, so there are reasons for optimism. The ceiling is such that I, like others, will gladly let myself be taken in by the hot start, small sample size or not.
25 JT Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State
I was very torn where to put Ginn. At the start of the year, he was one of the top 12 talents in this draft. It is impossible to ignore what he did as a freshman stepping into the SEC. Yet it also feels like many of us either are or are being forced to look past it. There have been injury concerns tied to Ginn since I got my first report on him. His size, velocity, and delivery raised flags. So when he did need Tommy John surgery after just one start in his sophomore year, you could hear the collective I told you so. The chances of future injury are a concern for me, and we have seen not all pitchers come back the same from these injuries. Yet for others, we see the injuries compile, so there is a significant risk even if it feels like every pitcher has had Tommy John surgery anymore. Still, his stuff, athleticism, and performance are that of a player who should go int he first round. Even if he did end up a reliever long term, he should be one of the best in baseball. He showed plus control and command as a freshman along with a plus fastball/slider combo. For me, it just the question of health.
26 Aaron Sabato, 1B, UNC
It takes a lot for a draft-eligible sophomore who is a first base only prospect to be this high on my list. Sabato has been just that good in college. He was one of the best hitters in the ACC over the last two years. He hits for power, walks at a strong rate, and hits for average. He did have surgery over the previous summer on his shoulder that meant he did not play over the summer. So there is just one year of data and a handful of games this year. He is a big dude, whose best position is likely DH down the road. I think he has above-average hit with plus power. The performance was enough to convince me that he is one of the safest bats in this class. There are a lot of reasons to move Sabato down. He is a bat only prospect whose only position is one that has been consistently downgraded in the draft. He checks all the offensive boxes for me to put him higher than other more well-rounded college prospects.
27 Austin Wells, 1B, Arizona
Austin Wells is likely to be listed as catcher everywhere, but I view that the same way Matt Thaiss was listed as a catcher, but we all knew better. He is yet another draft-eligible sophomore, the sheer number is more than I can ever remember. This is yet another reason why this class is just so deep. There have been debates due to those who think he could do enough to stick behind the plate. Regardless of where Wells does end up, the bat plays anywhere. He has above-average hit and power. He showed he can hit outside of the dry climate of Arizona and Nevada with his strong performance on the Cape. The reason a team will draft him is because of his potential as a middle of the order bat. He is one of the many bat first prospects in this class. I like Sabato a bit more, but if I felt more confidant that Wells could stick as a catcher or in leftfield, he would have moved up this board.
28 Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA) committed to Duke
Jordan Walker is a powerhouse. He is similar to Austin Hendrick in many ways, though Hendrick gets the edge as the better athlete overall. They are two of the top prep power hitters in the class, both with questions about their hits tools and the ability to hit breaking balls in general. Walker currently has added positional value, but there has been more talk that his future might be in rightfield. He is a big kid ay 6’5,” which, along with his bat speed, allows for exit velocities over 100 mph as a high school player. In addition, he is a highly intelligent kid with parents who graduated from MIT and Harvard. As the game continues to get more advanced and uses advanced thoughts and practices, there is great value in a player with his intelligence. He is also young for his class, just having turned 18 recently. I keep seeing Nolan Jones when I see Jordan Walker mostly due to size and power potential.
29 Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
Stop me if you have heard this, but Mlodzinski is a talented pitcher who has missed extensive time due to injury, making it hard to evaluate them due to the shortened season. Mlodzinski missed all but 10 innings of his sophomore year due to top a foot injury. He showed up at the Cape and looked like one of the three best prospects there. He was running his fastball up to the mid-90s and showing above-average to plus curve and change. He was one of the top pitchers in terms of strikeouts in the Cape and did that while showing pinpoint control. He was an entirely different player than he had shown as a freshman and during very limited time as a sophomore. He had top ten pick hype heading into the year. He was not bad at the start of the year, but he also didn’t pop enough to build off of the Cape performance. If a team believes the Cape was just the beginning for Mlodzinski, he could end up going in the top half of the first round. There has been enough time missed due to minor injuries that some teams might be scared off, but there are teams who draft heavily off the Cape. It is hard to see one of those teams passing on Mlodzinski.
30 Tanner Witt, RHP/3B, Episcopal HS (TX) Committed Texas
The top two way player in this class, though at this point, I think everyone agrees his future is on the mound. Witt checks every box when it comes to potential. He has bloodlines and grew up in the game as his father is a hitting coach in the Marlins system and a former major leaguer. He has the prototypical built at 6’6” and weighing 200 pounds. He is young for his class and won’t turn 18 until the 11th of July. He is touching the mid-90s, but projects for more as he gets stronger. His curveball is a spin rate darling, which looks like a future plus pitch. I am not sure if there is a high schooler who has seen their stock increase more than Witt. Some have risen higher, but Witt has gone from a player most expected to attend Texas to a likely first-rounder. There are enough reasons here to put his ceiling up there with any prep pitcher in this class.
31 Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
Yet another draft-eligible sophomore. Cecconi ended up at Miami due in part to an injury that caused him to miss most of his senior year. In what feels like something I had typed a 100 times, he is a big-bodied pitcher with a fastball/slider combination that has teams debating if he will be a reliever or start long term. His walk rate in college has been strong despite concerns about his control. He missed bats in college, but the problem is that as a draft-eligible sophomore, there were limited opportunities due to the loss of most of his sophomore year. Right now, Cecconi is a two-pitch pitcher. There is every reason to think he can work on a change and become a starter down the road. His success over his two years, mature build, and velocity all make me feel like his best days are in the not too distant future.
32 Logan Allen, LHP, FIU
Logan Allen had a lot of talk coming out of high school, so surprised me when he ended up going to Florida International. I know his brother is now a softball coach at FIU. Also, his brother played college ball under Merlvy Melendez, who is now the coach at FIU, so the family knew him well. The 2017 recruitment class had the chance to be an All-Timer for FIU then the coach’s son MJ Melendez signed with the Royals after being taken in the second round. It still worked out for FIU as Logan Allen has been a dominator for the Panthers. In a draft with a lot of uncertainty, Allen is a nice, safe bet. He has a ton of film and data. A known prospect from high school with two full years as a starter and a strong Cape performance. Allen is a good athlete, as well. He hit over .300 in 139 at-bats as a freshman. He continued to be a two-way player and, as hit as many home runs in college as Garret Mitchell. He is undersized, and a pretty typical pitchability lefty with strong well developed secondary offerings. It might not be the most exciting profile, but Allen will likely turn into a better pro than more than half of the players taken ahead of him.
33 Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
Cade Cavalli is a second-generation Sooner. His dad was a catcher at Oklahoma in 1990. He was a 50th round selection in the 1989 draft and eventually found his way into the Angels minors for a spell. His bloodlines give him another mark in his favor. He has a big strong build that teams always are looking for. He has one of the cleanest deliveries in the class, and thanks to this may be the easiest velocity in the class as well. His curveball gets heaps of praise, and I had one person tell me it is the best one they saw in the shortened season. Cavalli is even a good athlete, who started out as a two way player for the Sooners. Usually, when talking about athletic and clean delivery, it leads to control and command success. This is not the case for Cavalli, who has struggled with both in college. The issue for a team is how do you help fix something that is often corrected by cleaning up deliveries when the delivery is viewed as a strength. Also, while he has a sturdy build, he has struggled with health in college and high school. At the start of the year, he was one of the best pitchers in the country based on the numbers that matter. If I could have seen a fully healthy year, Cavalli would have been easily 20 points higher on this board. In a class, this deep health concerns, lack of track record, and command questions are enough to push him to this point.
34 Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX), Committed Texas
Jared Kelley is likely what you would picture if you closed your eyes and thought about what a Texas prep pitcher should look like a muscular 6’3” dude with an upper 90s fastball. He is more than a fastball as his changeup is another potential plus offering. Kelley has been sliding due to a combination of lower spin rates and concerns about his third offering. There is a lot more reliever talk then there was in the summer. Kelley fits in modern baseball, maybe as an opener perhaps as a multi-inning high leverage reliever. A few years ago, he might have just ended up a closer or back end arm. As we see the game evolve, there is added value in a pitcher like Kelley. A smart team will maximize his obvious skills.
35 Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
Auburn is often a bit of a whipping boy in terms of the SEC, they are around .500 most years. During Tanner Burns two years there they had just two top-five round picks, though one happened to be the first player taken in the entire draft., Casey Mize. I state this because, despite this, Burns has been an excellent SEC starter since he stepped foot on campus. He has appeared in 36 games during his career, all of them starts. He was solid as a freshman with a strikeout per nine over eight and a walk per nine-under four. His sophomore year performance though took a big jump, which saw his strikeout per nine jumped over 11 with a walk per nine under 2.5. There are issues, Burns is undersized at six feet tall, which always leads to reliever talk. For Burns, there are extras reasons to think he might be better as a reliever. His performance later in the year has either dipped in terms of velocity or time missed due to injury. Burns is a player who a full season at full strength would have increased his standing considerably. Instead, in this class of college pitchers, Burns might slide into round two even though he was one of the best pitchers in the top conferences in college baseball. He is another pitcher with a potent fastball/slider combo that should allow him to find success out of the pen if durability remains an issue.
36 Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Here is the player I disagree with the rest of the industry the most on. Crochet will be a top 20 pick. It is easy to see why he is a lefty who touches 100. There is a limited supply of such players. For me, this is not positive as after he started hitting 100, he was shut down for most of the shortened season due to arm soreness. His fall ball is what everyone is talking about, but for me, there are also concerns based on his first two years of college where he was home run prone and did not miss a ton of bats. He shows a slider and change both getting graded well. In addition to this velocity, Crochet has high spin rates on all his pitches. He is also young for his class, not turning 21 until the end of June. I will admit that I could end very wrong here. There are plenty of reasons to see a potential front line starter. For me, the risk is too much. While I think Crochet has excellent potential, I would let another organization take that risk.
37 Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
Westburg has been one of the hotter names for me in recent discussions. Most people have him rated higher than Wells or Sabato, both of who I have significantly higher rated on this board. Westburg blows them both away in terms of positional value and overall athleticism. Some would put his power potential on even footing with those two as well. I see a player a bit like Garrett Mitchell, where the tools are obviously there and have allowed them to find success even with some holes in their games. Westburg has had a lot of swing and miss in his game and doesn’t balance it out with a strong walk rate. This can sometimes be balanced out by power production, but that has been lacking as well. There is enough data to see a player who could be ascending, but now I am more willing to take the safer bets.
38 Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
Shuster is a lot like Crochet, a lefty who saw a rise in his stuff over the last six months after two largely forgettable years before that. I mentioned Crochet struggles, but that was nothing compared to Shuster during his first two years at Wake. I was hesitant to jump on the bandwagon after a stellar Cape as while he did miss bats, his control and command were issues during his first two years. Wake is one of the worst environments on the east coast for a pitcher, but Shuster did not do a lot those first two years to make anyone think he would go in the first round. Then his Cape performance followed by a velocity creep, which saw him topping out at 97 and then ended with great performances to start the year. He had managed to miss bats in the past with low 90s stuff pair with a plus change. He has the pitches to start; the only question is whether this is the beginning of great things or a flash in the pan was the start in the year.
39 Blaze Jordan, 1B, DeSoto HS (MS), Committed Mississippi State
This is a pick where I wonder if I am letting the industry have too much of an effect on my pick. I had Jordan as a top 12 talent at the start of the year. There is more risk here than with Aaron Sabato/ Austin Wells, but also a chance for more upside. I compare the players as they are all bat first, maybe bat only prospects in the same area of my board. If one squints due to his size and build, they could see Spencer Torkelson when looking at Jordan. Blaze Jordan has set records with his exit velocity, and due to his reclassifying is one of the youngest players in the entire draft. As mentioned with Hendricks, there has been a bad track record in players who are viewed as undersized and have maxed physical profiles. Yet, at the same time, the likely number one overall pick has just such a build. There have been added concerns with his hit tool, but no one doubts his power potential. I think Jordan gets drafted, and no matter where he ends up, every at-bat is likely to be can’t miss TV.
40 Bobby Miller, RHP, Lousiville
Bobby Miller has been a victim of the depth that Lousivilel the past few years. This led him to a split role of reliever and starter, which is why he had just 24 starts in his career but pitched 166 innings during that time. Miller has shown the ability to miss bats with a mid 90s fastball and above-average slider. He has the size and velocity teams covet. There are concerns with effort in his which delivery along with control concerns, have led some to label him a future pen arm. I am more in line with that camp. His control and command have been inconsistent throughout his career. There is a lot of ceiling here, and to more traditional teams, Miller is likely to hold a lot of value. Something that stands out is the consistently low hit rate in college. This shows either dominant stuff or a hard time for batters to pick up his pitches or maybe a combination of both. I tend to think he will end up in the pen long term, which is why he is down the board for me.
41 Carson Montgomery, RHP, West Orange HS (FL) Committed FSU
There are a plethora of reasons to be a fan of Montgomery. He is one of the youngest players in the class, not turning 18 until the middle of August. He has a long track record of summer showcase success over his career. He is a good athlete with repeatable delivery and a quick arm. His velocity has been in the mid-90s, touching 96. He seems to be evolving as a pitcher, and the reports on him in the fall all talked about this. His velocity was not quite as high, but he seemed to have more command and control. He has an advanced feel for his offspeed offerings. At 6’2,” he is viewed as a bit undersized for a righthander, which is one of the few potential knocks. For me, the profile is very clean between the athleticism and the good but not great velocity. Teams that value quick arms and aged based models will view Montgomery as a first-round talent.
42 Masyn Winn, RHP/SS, Kingwood HS (TX) Committed Arkansas
It speaks volumes to his ability that Winn is 5’10” and still viewed as a potential pitcher. If he did not pitch at all, he would still be drafted as a shortstop in the top three rounds he is that type of athlete and talent. There might be teams who are willing to develop him as both. There are concerns about his hit tool, but the offensive profile is not dissimilar to Ed Howard, who is nearly 30 spots higher in my ranks. As a pitcher, he has touched 98, and both his changeup and curve seem to never stop spinning. He could end up a plus defender with plus power at short. He could end up a pitcher with three plus pitches as well. So why is he this low? The height is a concern that will push him down a bit. There have been concerns in terms of maturity and other issues since he got sent home from the PDP League in July. There were also concerns that he was shut down as a pitcher. In terms of potential, Winn could be a reliever and/or an infielder. There is a lot of risk, but the upside as a two-way player is unmatched by any player in the last two years for me.
43 CJ Van Eyk, RHP, FSU
CJ Van Eyk, after his first start, looked like a top 15 talent in this draft, but the inconsistency that has been an issue for him over the previous two years struck again. This year in four starts, he lasted about five innings per start with a strikeout-per-nine near 11 per nine and a walk-per-nine over five. Van Eyk has always missed bats through his career, a reliever or a starter. He has one of the better current three-pitch mixes amongst the college crop of starters. Still, He has had second-round talk more of late due to the consistency issues and the depth of the college class. He is not the biggest arm, which also will be an issue, and make him not a fit for all teams. He is caught up in a numbers game. There are so many arms that Van Eyk, who has first-round arm talent, will likely be there for a lucky team in round two. If he had a chance to pitch an entire season and show that those were just early-season hiccups, then Van Eyk could have gone significantly earlier.
44 Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Nick Loftin has been a productive shortstop at Baylor for the last three years. He was clearly pressing a bit in limited time this year. After hitting three home runs total over his first two years in 108 games. He hit two this year over 14 games. It also led to a jump in strikeouts, which was a net negative for him overall. He went from eight and 6 percent in terms of strikeout percentage to 18 this year. One of his best skills has been his bat to ball ability and avoiding the strikeout, so the jump even if lead to more power seemed ill-advised. Loftin is at his best working counts and being a pest. He is a likely shortstop who gets the job done despite never really popping in any skill area. It has been shown over the years one of the better indicators is low strikeout percentage, at least in terms of avoiding busts. So Loftin will hopefully return to high contact rates and a lot of doubles once drafted. His freshman and sophomore years will make him a likely first-rounder to teams focused on high contact and low strikeout percentages.
45 Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami
Chris McMahon was one of the players who had the most helium form USA baseball. He looked great over the summer. McMahon built off that and was unbelievable in the early goings of this year. He averages over six innings a start with a strikeout-per-nine over 13 with a walk-per-nine under two. He was a three-sport athlete in high school, and the athleticism shows on the mound. His first two years were shortened due to injuries both as a freshman and sophomore. The other issue is that he is more of a two-pitch pitcher, and while his fastball and change are excellent, but there is less confidence in his third offering. In addition, he is another righthander below the 6’3” magic height line that some teams have still. We had yet to see McMahon put together a complete season, and in this class, it is the little things teams will find to separate out which arm they prefer.
46 Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX), Committed Dallas Baptist
Big kid, big fastball pretty much end of the story. Not so fast, he is more than a 100 mph fastball and one of the sturdier builds in the prep ranks at 6’4” and 220 pounds. He is a plus athlete who could have been drafted as power/speed outfielder if not for his obvious arm talents. His slider could be a future weapon but needs refinement. Basically, Lange, in general, needs refinement. He is the prototype, but he is so far away and needs work in really every facet. He has a cathedral ceiling and a floor that is so low it reaches the Earth’s molten core. No risk, no reward. Teams considering Lange have to be honest about how strong their pitching development pipeline has been before taking the risk.
47 Kevin Parada, C, Loyola HS (CA) Committed to George Tech
Kevin Parada could be the next great Georgia Tech catcher. In terms of physical skills, he is near the top of the catcher crop. He runs well in general, let alone for a catcher. His bat speed and strength allow for high exit velocity currently, and there is the chance for power down the road. He is a bat-first player right now but has an opportunity to be an average defender at catcher. He could potentially move to the outfield if catcher does not work out as his bat should still play there. The risk of the prep catcher can not be overstated. On physical tools, Parada should be higher, but the combination of risk and concerns about his ability to stick at catcher long term push him down.
48 Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State
Williams is more defense then hit at this point in time. After a disappointing freshman year, he returned and managed to put up excellent numbers for Arizona State as a sophomore. His best trait in the batters box is his eye at the plate. He walked nearly 13% of the time as a sophomore. This year it was at 11.5%, which is still very strong. His average as a sophomore was much either than either of the other years but was buoyed by a high BABIP. It would be nice to see consistency in the BABIPs so that there was an easier projection for his hit tool. Instead, it points towards a bit of luck. It is hard to take too much from it due to struggles as a freshman and small sample size this year. Williams defensively is a no-doubt shortstop, and his best tools all relate to his ability to handle the position. One is hoping there will be more consistency in his offensive game. His defense can carry him as long as his on-base skills, along with his ability as a hitter, allow him to be an average offensive performer.
49 Nick Garcia, RHP, Chapman
Nick Garcia has a lot in common with Seth Johnson from a year ago. Another infielder turned pitcher, who I was very high on. In both cases, these are pitchers who are just starting to scratch the surface of their abilities. They don’t have anywhere near the wear and tear of the typical college arm. Garcia did not start pitching until his sophomore year, and his ability popped right away at the division three level. He dominated in relief with a strikeout-per-nine over 13 and a walker-per-nine a little over two. He moved to the Cape over the summer, working out of the pen. Here was a division three pitcher, who had only been pitching a few months holding his own in the best wood bat league. Then his velocity jumped to 98 in the fall and so jumped Garcia’s stock. He has had success against top competition and has a build that could allow him to start. Just how raw he is is his biggest strength and weakness. One can dream on the potential and what he can do when coached up and refined. At the same time, there are prep pitchers with a more advanced feel. There are issues with his secondary offerings, command, and control. Yet he has shown enough to make me think he can improve in all of these areas and be a reliever, maybe even a starter down the road.
50 Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ), Committed Texas
The truth of baseball is that most players started out shortstops and moved to other positions. A team can never draft or have enough shortstops in the system. Carson’s older brother Cole was drafted in the first round by the Pirates 24th overall back in 2014. I have long wanted to do an accurate study on brothers in baseball. Anecdotally it feels like the younger brother often ends up outshining the older one. He has the tools to be better than his brother, who made the big leagues last year for the Pirates. Carson Tucker does everything well, but nothing plus. This is the type of profile that has some risk as failure or regression is any area could end up stopping a promising player. His best tool is widely considered to be his hit tool. The data that is out there right now makes me think he is unlikely to have average power down the road. One is betting on his hit tool and defensive profile if he goes in round one, which has become a common projection.
51 Freddy Zamora, SS, Miami
I have been trying to decide if Zamora being so low on boards is due to an injury, or is there something more. On a fundamental level, it always came off as weird that he was reported as suspended for a violation of team rules. Then a few hours later, it turns into an ACL tear. It was reported to have happened in practice, but the timing was weird to me. Zamora is one of the best defenders in college baseball. The word slick is often applied as an adjective to describe his skills as a fielder. He had improved as a sophomore as a hitter showing more power and on-base skills. The more significant issue and what really appears to be hurting his stock is makeup concerns. When you compare his numbers to Nick Loftin, they are very similar and better in some areas. Yet Zamora is nowhere near Loftin on boards now after being ahead of him on every board before the year began. It points to more than just an injury that did not allow him to play in 14 games this spring. The defense is still there, as are the same skills. Hopefully, this will be used as a motivator and growth for Zamora.
SM Zavier Warren, ?, CMU
I could not leave Warren off my list as he is one of my favorite players in this class. He has played shortstop in college, most think he is better served long term at second or third. There was talk about him catching more this year, and that is yet another potential long term home. I would counter his best home is the first guy off the bench. In a pinch, I think he could handle all nine positions as a backup. He might not excel, but can he work for a day here or there, I think so. Warren is also a switch hitter which is another bonus when you are looking at the backup super-utility type. He has been the best hitter in the MAC for the last two years (on-base percentage of .502 in 2019). He went to the Cape and continued to excel. So one should not be focused on what he has done against lesser competition. I would try him at catcher, but also think he is a third-round talent just due to his on-base skills and potential in a Tony Phillips type of role. He doesn’t run particularly well, and that will be a knock as will the lack of consensus on position, and his lack of power. Just don’t ignore the high doubles, a ton of walks, and consistently high batting averages.
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