Take 2, I added in new teams that were eliminated and moved the Yankees and Mets to the correct spots assuming that neither team is affected by the draft lottery. There is debate on San Diego so I am waiting on official word. I also added in all the playoff teams.
So every year I do a mock draft after the season ends for all the teams that have been eliminated. Last year it got a little weird as the lottery means all of this will change in two months anyway. I decided to keep up the practice though as it still allows me good reasons to research a player as well as point out possible connections and recent practices. It goes without saying there is no intel this mock is just based on years of following team approaches. For those who have not checked out my work before, I have gotten two picks right in this mock: Nick Madrigal to the White Sox in 2018 and Andrew Vaughan to the White Sox in 2019.
Now I do this for fun for free, I am a dyslexic and there are likely errors and word replacements below. I don’t have an editor so it's just me and software. So be a little kind and understanding that you are getting free content when outside of MLB and Prospects Live all other draft content is behind paywalls.
Thank you to everyone who reads and shares and now into the mock. I also want to say thank you to Perfect Game, who have data and percentile-based data on every high school player that is free and visible and invaluable when it comes to comparing prep players.
1 Oakland Athletics - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Sleeper JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
The last two years Oakland has gone with more polished college performers with their first-round pick. There is no slam dunk at the top of the draft like a year ago, but there is plenty of time for such a player to emerge. The depth though feels just as good as a year ago might be slightly better. While teams have traditionally avoided first baseman early that trend has changed along with just how good Kurtz has been as a hitter. Yes, the home environment is incredibly friendly, and yes Wake’s best hitter in the majors is Stuart Fairchild ever. Yet when you look for indicators like BABIP, walk-to strikeout, and strikeout rates Kurtz excels. It doesn’t hurt that the comp on him is Matt Olson, but it's more that every hit-based tool looks 60 or 70. I wish we had more summer data or just batted ball data in general, but Kurtz looks like a complete safe-moving hitter who should be a middle-of-the-order performer and multi-time All-Star. Wetherholt is another top-level performer, who is an up-the-middle talent if Oakland did not want to go with a guy who plays on the edges.
2 Kansas City Royals - Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep Committed to LSU
Sleeper Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
The Royals have gone more prep with their recent high picks, and Griffin is arguably the player with the most upside in this draft. He reclassified and will only be 17.5 on draft day. He is a big kid with elite athleticism. He is a legit five-tool player, who has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the league. He posts high-end exit velocity while having a very clean and easy swing. He is a two-way player and a legit pitching prospect but the upside as a center fielder is too good to consider him as a pitcher. He might be closer to a four-tool guy with slight contact concerns but he is an absolute toolshed and one of the youngest players in the class. Caminita is the nephew of Ken Caminita and one of the three potential first-round prep players who reclassified for the 2024 draft. He could be an under-slot high-ceiling prep target for the Royals.
3 Colorado Rockies Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
The Rockies have gone with a college pitcher with their top pick the last two years. Both of those picks were in the top 10. Last year they went very pitcher-heavy in general. Yet none of that should stop them from considering Burns who is the top pitcher in this class, who is not at one of the best pitcher factories in college baseball. Wake Forest has a better pitching lab than most teams. So for a team like the Rockies who have struggled to develop pitchers, taking someone from Wake should be viewed as a bonus. Burns has some things to work on including his third pitch and his command which seemed to waiver as the season went on. Still, the chance at an 80-grade fastball and a 70-grade slider should allow him to be successful even with an average third pitch. Colorado loves power and Caglianone as a power pitcher and power bat might appeal to the Rockies.
4 Chicago White Sox Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
Sleeper Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
White Sox fans calm down, I know you are all thinking about Nick Madrigal but Bazzana is a very different hitter. The Australian hitter might end up the top pick in this class. He has above-average to plus tools across the board. While he has played second at Oregon many think he could stick at shortstop due to his plus athleticism. He has one of the best hit tools in the class, using the whole field and making pitchers pay for mistakes. He walked at a high rate, rarely chased, while also hitting for power. His power is likely 55 grade, but every team I watch more of Bazzana I keep thinking that I might be underestimating the ceiling because the present is so good. He should be an on-base monster who should post several 20/20 seasons down the road. If the White Sox want pitching, Brecht has a lot in common with Burns but with a higher ceiling and a lot more risk.
5 St. Louis Cardinals JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
Sleeper PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
The Cardinals are in an interesting spot, if they stay here, to just wait and see who is still on the board. Wetherholt is just too good to not take. If one wanted to have him going to any team on this list I would say sure. Everything I said about Bazzana holds true here regarding using the whole field, a chance for above-average to plus power, and a strong eye at the plate. I tend to lean towards Wetherholt myself as he is nearly a year younger while Oregon State has had a stronger history of player success. He hit .449 at just about the hardest level there is in college baseball. He is not quite the athlete Bazzana is and is likely to have less positional value but the bat alone would have made him the number four-rated player in last year's class which was an all-timer. Morlando has the type of swing, approach, and power the Cardinals tend to like and always do well developing.
6. Los Angeles Angels Vance Honeycutt, OF, UNC
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Some will have Vance Honeycutt at the top of the board in this class. I will admit after his freshman year I assumed he would be a no-doubt top player in this class. Yet when I watched UNC a year ago it was Mac Horvath I kept getting drawn to. Now Honeycutt is a better prospect and my eye tends to drift to the draft-eligible players, but I just expected more from Honeycutt. He did cut back on his strikeout rate which was the biggest knock on him entering the year, but the fact his power also dropped was a concern. He is a no-doubt center fielder and should be plus there with his speed and defense. Honeycutt is a late bloomer, if you find his perfect game profile he was smaller, lighter, and didn’t hit the ball that hard. There is a part of him that is still figuring out how to use his size and skills. His athleticism is so clear, and his production has been outstanding, when you look at him through the lens of late growth the arrow on him is up. Honeycutt will be in the discussion for the top overall pick. Yes, I had to make my sleeper the college Ohtani, it was too much fun not to.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Sleeper PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
Yes, I know the Mets had the seventh-worst record, but unless they end up in the top six due to the lottery they will drop to pick 17 due to being over the luxury tax thresholds. The new draft rules are why the Nationals and Mets fall. Brody Brecht is the end of the elite college player tier for me. The top six players all have the potential to be stars, some of the best players at their position. Brecht is skipping football this fall, after being a wide receiver for Iowa his first two years. He is that good of an athlete. His stuff is the best of any pitcher in this class. His fastball touches 101, his slider is a potential 70-grade pitch. He is also one of the rawest pitchers I have seen in terms of his level of dominant stuff. His command is a mess, and there is massive risk here. The athleticism and upper-tier potential on his fastball/slider means that if he ends up on the right team that is focused on traits and can work with him he could end up being a legit GUY. His ceiling is as high as any pitcher I have seen but the risk is also the highest I have seen with a top-ten college arm.
8. Cleveland Guardians Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern
Sleeper Caleb Bonemer, 3B, Okemos HS (MI) Committed to UVA
This may not be the name most Guardians fans want. I am sure a power hitter like Tommy White is the name you are hoping to read, and they could go prep here after going prep-heavy in 2023. Yet Mike Sirota does feel like the perfect Guardians prospect. He is a cold-weather hitter, has plus athleticism, dominated the Cape, Plays up the middle, has the best swinging-strike data in college baseball, and is young for his class not turning 21 until June. He plays at Northeastern which has more history with Cleveland than any other organization. The current coach Mike Glavine was a Guardians pick, general manager candidate Luke Carlin came from there, as did recently traded pitcher Aaron Civale. Sirota will likely see his stock dip this year because he faces lesser competition. The lack of chances to prove oneself always leads to slides. This is a mistake as going back to his prep days Sirota was one of the best athletes in his class. He is a four-tool player with his power still being a likely above-average tool. He feels safer than Honeycutt but with a lower ceiling. Not sure he is a lock to Cleveland, but his being right-handed rather than left-handed is the only factor not in his favor in terms of the last decade of Guardians draft trends. Bonemer is a young for-the-class, cold-weather shortstop, who shined a bunch over the summer and has some power potential in his frame.
9. Detroit Tigers PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) Committed to South Carolina
Sleeper Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Detroit is a big beneficiary of the new draft rules moving from 11 to 9 and getting a large chunk of extra pool money for their time. While this is a team with a lot of young talent, we saw them lean for high-ceiling prep talent last year over the nearer college help. Morlando might have the best hit and power tools in the prep class. He has it all launch angle, bat speed, approach, eye at the plate, exit velocities. He hits the ball everywhere and hits it hard. One could make a case for him being the top prep hitter in this class. He could fall anywhere in the top 10. In my reviews as a prep hitter, he is the most polished in terms of whole-field approach, ball-to-bat skills, and eye at the plate since Dylan Crews. I am not saying he is Crews, just that he is that advanced at this stage in his career. He is more than likely a corner outfielder and will be 19 on draft so those are the only concerns the bat feels like one that should be safer than the typical prep hitter with all the same ceiling. Caglianone is interesting but both the hitter and pitcher profiles have questions that push him down a bit, but the two-way potential is enough to see a team start to get interested in the back half of the top ten.
10. Washington Nationals Jac Caglianone, OF/LHP, Florida
Sleeper Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
The National's tendency over the last decade has been to take sliding talent regardless of concerns or red flags. They often go for big performers and big names. There are no red flags on Caglianone but there are some legit concerns to the point one could argue that 10th overall is not a slide. He has monstrous power both as a hitter and as a pitcher. He is up to 99 on the mound and hit 33 home runs as a sophomore. He is a massive human at 6’5” and 245 pounds. He didn’t pitch as a freshman due to TJ surgery so while he had big command issues in 2023 there is a chance he will rebound a full year removed from surgery. The command though is a big concern and has made many wonder if he can stay on the mound long-term or if he will be more of a reliever going forward. I lean toward reliever but think he can be a very good one. His fastball-slider combo should be deadly. There are concerns if he can play in the outfield or if he will be a first-base-only prospect. I again lean towards him working in the outfield. Caglianone doesn’t sell out for power but he does expand his zone more than is ideal. For as celebrated, and for good reason, a player that Caglianone is he needs just general refinement across his skill set. He has legit two-way potential, but might not occur if the bat outdistances the pitch skills too much. Cozart is a legit defender with strong pop who should be in play in the 5-15 range.
11. Boston Red Sox Charlie Condon, 1B/OF, Georgia
Sleeper Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Okay, so we have no clue who will be in charge and who they might take. This makes Boston pick a situation where it is a complete guess. I think the new manager won’t be allowed to rebuild and burn it all down. There will be some expectation of attempting to compete which might encourage them to go with a college bat. One because they can help sooner and two they can get to the upper minors sooner making them a better trade asset. I also talked with a few people who insisted that Condon is a top-ten talent, and he will be on my board as well. I think one of the biggest questions is how Condon was not able to make it on the field as a freshman and had to redshirt at Georgia. Because what he did as a freshman is practically unheard of. He hit for power, 25 home runs, got on base, and had a strikeout percentage under 20. Those are not things that happen in the SEC. His size and bat speed might give him the best power potential in this college class. He is a better athlete than one would think for his build but is still a fringy defensive outfielder. He might start there then move to first as he fills out even more. The arm is there for the outfield but his speed being 40 grade means he can’t afford to lose a step. The bat is the calling card and specifically big-time power. It will get him drafted early especially if he can somehow top his numbers from last year. Is this where I point out the Georgia draft regression curse we have seen mostly with pitchers but has been a thing for the last half a decade? Smith is the top college arm and solidly the third-rated one on most boards if Boston wanted to go with a pitcher and not a belly itcher.
12 San Francisco Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas AM
Sleeper Noah Franco, RHP/1B, IMG Academy Not Committed
Two straight years with two-way players, that most of us don’t expect to stay two-way. I had to put another two-way talent here. It is not all for the lols as Montgomery slots into this range and his overall athleticism also slots into what we have seen the Giants go for. Montgomery might be a better two-way player than Caglianone. He is a better overall athlete. I think Montgomery is the more interesting hitter long term and Caglianone is the more interesting pitcher. But now that I have stated that, I expect the opposite. Montgomery hits the upper 90s but command is an issue, and one can’t help but think the bat will advance at such a rate that his pitching will fall by the wayside. He is a switch hitter with easy, explosive power. He does have some swing-and-miss concerns but did show improvements as a sophomore. Montgomery could have been a first-rounder out of high school. With the very deep college class, Montgomery needs to build on his success from last year to ensure he goes in the top half of the first round. Franco is the third of the big three prep players who reclassified for this year's class. He is another interesting two-way player in this class, let's call it the Ohtani effect.
13 Cincinnati Reds Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Sleeper Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
The Reds had a fantastic season which saw a lot of their talent hit the big leagues, where they mostly hit. Their prospect pool has been dominated by hitting prospects. While you never draft for need when value is pretty even it makes sense to consider a position of less depth. Hagen Smith is the third-rated pitcher in this class right now. The word that you will see in every report on Hagen Smith is deceptive. While he has some stereotypical traits of a lefty he also throws low to mid 90s and misses a ton of bats. He has been a day-one starter in the SEC and increased his strikeout per nine from 10.5 to 13.7 last year. He has a strong pitch mix highlighted by his fastball, slider, and change. His slider was his go-to pitch and had his highest swing-and-miss percentage a year ago. The concern here is command and control. One can help but wonder if his stuff moves so much he has trouble controlling it. His walks per nine have been over five in college. More and more we see the important value of traits more than performance, and teams looking for players they can work with to improve. Smith, being a lefty who misses bats at an elite rate, will be in top 10 contention this year and could go a lot higher if his command improves. Cozart is arguably the top player left on the board, and as a catcher, he has added value.
14 Chicago Cubs Jacob Cozart, C, NC State
Sleeper Tommy White, 1B, LSU
What did the Cubs do in 2023? They waited and took the sliding hitter, who had no business making it to them with Matt Shaw. What do they get to do in this mock take the sliding hitter who has no business making it to them in Jacob Cozart. College catchers typically rise in the draft for two reasons. Teams always need catching, basic supply and demand. The second part is that college catchers are a much safer bet as prep catchers typically have a lower success rate than prep pitchers. It goes from such a risk to more of a certainty, though far from certain, that teams don’t let catchers get by them. We did see Daniel Susac slide recently though so it can happen. Cozart is a defense-first catcher, who can also hit from an NC State program that recently produced Patrick Bailey. The ACC in general has felt like the breadbasket of college catchers over the last decade thanks in large part to Louisville but NC State is doing their part. Cozart looks the part of a future-plus defender who should be a league-average bat. There is not a plus offense trait outside of his eye at the plate. There is so much value in being about a league average catcher offensively there were just 13 a year ago with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. Only nine of those catchers offered average defense as well, there is so much value in his profile. He feels like one of the safer picks in this draft because barring injury he should be no worse than a backup due to his defensive skills.
15 San Diego Padres Caleb Bonemer, 3B, Okemos HS (MI) Committed to UVA
Sleeper Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
The Padres recent approach has been all about ceiling. When you look at Dillon Head, Dylan Lesko, and Robby Snelling there is no reason to change this approach one would think. With the depth of the college crop, there are several very interesting prep players on the board. Would they want to go with the potential two-way talents? Maybe one of the players who reclassified? Bloodlines? The sleeper is Cam Caminiti who is the nephew of former Padres great Ken who is all three. Bonemer is a cold-weather player whose name is on the rise after a strong summer. While this might mirror Colt Emerson they are dramatically different players with Bonemer’s carrying tool being his power potential. Bonemer could go in the top ten and would be the near-consensus top prep player on the board. The Michigan product features plus speed and power with a legitimate chance to stick at shortstop. Players with his profile of speed, power, and up-the-middle ability always rise on draft day. Bonemer has already been rising over the past year as much as any player in this class. I expect him to end up higher than this come next July.
16 Seattle Mariners Derek Curiel, OF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA), Committed to LSU Sleeper Noah Franco, RHP/1B, IMG Academy Not Committed
It is always interesting when a team takes such a drastic shift in draft approach. After being one of the most conservative teams in the first round the Mariners have made an abrupt shift taking prep players with their top pick three years in a row, including multiple prep shortstops. They have gone both with and against age-based model players. The one consistent approach is going for players who profile with a chance to stick up the middle. Derek Curiel reminds me in terms of approach and hit tool of last years pick Colten Emerson. He is a hit over power player with a clean and easy approach from the left side. Curiel has an advanced approach, doesn’t chase, and uses the whole field. He comes from a top program which is always a bonus. He is likely to stay in centerfield and be a solid to plus defender there. The overall profile might not be the most sexy but it's a classic total is more than the sum of its parts type. He looks like a potential plus centerfielder and would be another strong prospect in the Mariners system. Franco would be the ceiling grab here as a power hitter who also is a legit pitching prospect.
17 Miami Marlins Tommy White, 1B, LSU
Sleeper Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA) Committed to Texas
Tommy White or Tommy Tanks if you prefer is likely one of the more polarizing players in this class. I could see the person who just doesn’t see how he could be at 16 after Kurtz went one. I mean White played in the SEC and was extremely productive after out-producing Kurtz when both were freshmen in the ACC. This is where I would point out the size and walk differences between the two hitters. While he has not struck out at a high rate in college, those with access to more data will be the first to tell you his chase rates have been higher than one would hope for. It shows a player with a tendency to expand the zone, which works when you are so much better than most competition but can be an issue for a player once they get to the minors. His power is a potential 70 grade tool and his contact rate in college has been solid. The question is how much you believe in the hit tool. If you think it's potential plus White is a top 10 talent. If you think it's closer to average it might move him significantly down the board. Jacob Berry will be a mentioned name but White has significantly better power which should not stop a team like the Marlins from grabbing a big name potentially fast-moving college hitter. Last year the Marlins took arguably the best two prep arms a year ago Sterling currently holds that title in this class.
18 New York Mets Seaver King, 2B, Wake Forest
Sleeper Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
David Stearns time with the Brewers was almost entirely college player after college player. They went with safer profiles early and took more risks on talent or tools later in the draft. This makes sense as there are always a ton of high-ceiling players that make it to college but finding safer players with certain traits gets harder as the draft goes. They went for up-the-middle athletes, with high contact rates. King might not be the biggest name after playing at D2 Wingate for the last two years but his athlete profile has many excited. His performance on the Cape also helped to allay fears about his performance against better competition. King hits the ball very hard, and if he successfully makes the transition this year while keeping his strikeout rate low he might well be off the board with this pick. There is some Matt Shaw upside in terms of an offensive second baseman with power and strong Cape performance. King is a very late bloomer. There is plenty of room for him to grow and get significantly better and complete as a hitter.
19 Toronto Blue Jays Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA) Committed to Texas
Sleeper Cade Arrmabide, C, Tomball HS (TX) Committed to LSU
The Blue Jays have taken a sliding prep talent the last two years, both players with big ceilings and noticeable risks as well. They have not been afraid of risk. As a matter of fact, their top two bonuses in the last two years went to prep players. So the question here is Sterling, Franco, and Caminiti. Sterling is one of the youngest players in the class, even younger than Franco who reclassified for this draft. The 6’4'' right-hander is a good athlete who has had some late growth based on the varying heights for him. He is a former infielder whose athleticism is easy to spot. He sits low 90s touches mid 90s and has shown a four-pitch mix. There is a tendency to say he has the typical prep Texas build due to his size and being a top prep arm. He is more of a developing blank slate who won’t turn 18 until next September. If you trust your development he could be a steal and will be someone that model-based scouting departments will likely value.
20 Milwaukee Brewers Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
Sleeper Anthony Silva, SS, TCU
The Brewers had my favorite draft in 2023, they took a cluster of my favorite prospects and worked the pool magnificently to get a mix of prep and college talent that included four of my top 50 players. They even saved enough pool money to get two big over-slot signings from the prep ranks. The one consistent with their approach has been college bat in round one. It makes sense, as we have seen college hitters go quickly so grab the college bat with some ceiling and then grab ceiling later as there is always high-ceiling talent left. Malcolm Moore is the last of a tier of college in my opinion. Moore is the perfect fit for the Brewers as a bat-first catcher with some serious power. There are some questions if he will have to move off catcher, but the bat would profile at first. This is what makes him perfect for the Brewers who have turned a series of poor defenders into good ones behind the plate. Nothing is harder to find in baseball than catching. If they can develop Moore it gives them more options as Contreras gets pricey. Or he becomes an excellent trade asset. Moore is a draft-eligible sophomore, so a down year could cause a big drop. His
21 Tampa Bay Rays Noah Franco, RHP/1B, IMG Academy Not Committed
Sleeper Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
The Rays have had some interesting drafts in the last two years. Xavier Isaacs was a surprise who has paid off so far. Brendan Taylor was a more conventional taking-a-fallen-player type of pick. While they have taken some prep players high they have been very college-heavy, in general, over the last two years. The problem with that is right now the college depth is a bit more picked over. I have 15 of the first 20 picks being college players. While there are some interesting names, the value here just feels like the prep class. Noah Franco is one of the reclassified group left on the board, he is also one of the last two-way talents left in the class. He is a better hitter than a pitcher, but he is one of the few guys I think could be either a hitter or a pitcher. While he profiles at first base it is more a long-term position as he gets stronger and fills in. There is every chance he could end up playing in the outfield as he has the arm and the athleticism to handle either spot in the outfield. I know the consensus is that he will end up at first, but he is such a good athlete it seems weird to me to just slot him there. As a pitcher, he currently sits low 90s but there is every reason to expect him to add more. His slider looks like a potential plus offering and he can spin it. His power as a hitter is his carrying trait, he hits the ball hard and can turn on a pitch. There are swing-and-miss concerns and his swing is not the most efficient. I like him more as a pitcher than a hitter, going against the consensus. But he is the rare player who is an interesting enough two-way talent to make such debates possible. Sterling is the top prep arm this year, but prep arms have slid recently. Benge is an interesting two-way talent, who has limited reps due to injury but could be rising with a strong junior year.
22 Minnesota Twins Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny HS (IA) Committed to Iowa
Sleeper Cam Smith, IF, FSU
This is when things get interesting for me in terms of the draft, things open up quite a bit and the range of players is rather big. The majority of the talked-about players are off the board and we are more into some of the players with wide-ranging appeal or questions. Oakie is a prep arm from a nonconventional prep state, that will always leave question marks. One has to point out that Ankey is also where Brody Brecht went to school who could end up being the top player in this class. Yet the Twins have gone prep more often and did take Chase Petty just a few years ago when drafting later in the draft. Oakie is a two-way player, who could profile as a shortstop and is still growing into his body as a pitcher. He sits mid-90s, commands his pitches, and might have the top prep slider in this class in terms of spin. There is a very good chance he could end up the top prep pitcher in this class due to his growth potential, pitchability, and current stuff. He has not had as many reps on big stages, but his ceiling rivals any pitcher in this class. He has my favorite fastball/slider combo in the prep group and I will be far from the only one with that view. If they want to go prep Cam Smith is a very strong infielder, who dominated the Cape. If he builds on the Cape performance he will end up going in the first round.
23 Los Angeles Dodgers Cam Smith, IF, FSU
Sleeper Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (AR), Committed to Ole Miss
The Dodgers are a hard team to nail down, they often go off-board and mix college talent and prep players. They could do anything here. They do tend to favor athleticism, but there are no hard or fast rules for them in general. As previously mentioned Cam Smith had one of the best summers of any college player due to his strong performance in the Cape after a solid but unremarkable freshman year. The draft-eligible sophomore turned a lot of heads, and with his power potential, he is a player a lot of teams will be watching heavily this spring to see if he can build off his summer performance. He hit for more power while cutting back on his strikeout rate all the while facing better competition than he will often face this year. High-level Cape performance to some organizations seems to rival or trump the larger sample of production during the spring. If the Dodgers want to go prep Caldwell is a plus-plus runner with massive exit velocities that is likely to be judged not on his elite athletic tools, production, and makeup but on being 5 '9". He is a classic case of if he had 3 to 5 inches more in height he would be in the top 10 discussion.
24 Baltimore Orioles Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest
Sleeper Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
There was a lot of talk last year about the Orioles maybe going back to the prep ranks after the success of Jackson Holliday. Then last year they didn’t draft a prep player until the 15th round, drafting two in total and signing neither of them. In 2022 they only drafted and signed one other prep player outside of Holliday, Zack Showalter in the 11th round. I can see a debate in taking a top prep player as the value as a trade asset might last longer and allow them to have players ready to supplement the current core as ownership as stated they won’t be able to keep talent. I do think though adding college talent that can move quickly makes a bit more sense. Josh Hartle is entering his third year at the Wake Forest pitching factor. The lefty was one of the most successful pitchers in the ACC last year and stands to perform even better this year. He might not have the ceiling of the previously mentioned pitchers in this class. He has a chance to be the first starter to the big leagues, due to his ability to command and control his pitches as well as consistently missing bats in college. One knows he has been well coached, and should be ready for the jump to the minors. He slides a bit due to a lower ceiling but he should be a solid mid-rotation left-handed pitcher. One could see outcomes similar to Jordan Montgomery down the road, and that would be incredibly valuable. The Orioles do have a history of redrafting talent, and Witt was a player they took on day three a year ago who has a lot of traits that would be favors of models.
25 Atlanta Braves Thatcher Hurd, LHP, LSU
Sleeper Anthony Silvia, SS, TCU
The Braves top picks in 2020 and 2021 were college pitchers. In 2022 they drafted three prep arms and then one college arm with their top three picks. They then came back in 2023 and drafted three college arms to start the draft. Seven of their top nine selections were pitchers last year. Garrett Baumann, a pitcher, and Isiah Drake, an outfielder, were their prep selections in 2023 in the fourth and fifth rounds and were given the same bonus. While some might think that they have taken enough arms, I would counter that one can never have enough arms. The Braves went hunting for traits a year ago over production and it’s hard to argue with the results that saw Hurtson Waldrep end the year in AAA. Traits over production stood out to me with their draft, as well as growth potential. Thatcher Hurd was a big-name transfer from UCLA but got a little lost in all the star power at LSU. He showed be in a more central role this year and could be a name to jump up this board. He struggled with command and control at the start of the year but slowly got better. His stuff has always been fantastic with one of the better sliders in college baseball along with a plus fastball. He shows four pitches that are all usable. If his command and control are improved Hurd is long gone by this pick. If not, the Braves are focused more on what a pitcher can do than what they can’t and find ways to work with arms to get the most out of them. If they did go bat, Anthony Silvia stands out as a no-doubt shortstop and yet another draft-eligible sophomore who has a chance to rise this year building on a strong freshman year.
26 New York Yankees Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS (AZ) Committed to LSU
Sleeper Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
The New Yankees have been one of the more conservative teams when it comes to the draft over the years. Despite that a year ago they went with a high-ceiling prep player with bloodlines. It does go against type, for a team that drafted and signed 3 prep players in 2023 and 0 in 2022. There is a temptation to go with Carson Benge as the Yankees have chased power hitters in the draft over recent years with Lombard Jr., Jones, and Wells all coming to mind as hitters with potential plus power. Yet the bloodlines, ceiling, and general youth of Caminiti could have him going much higher in this draft. While he has been a two-way guy, almost everyone thinks his future is as a starter. He might have just turned 17 in August, but he feels advanced for his age with three pitches and the ability to command them all. The change needs the most work, but his feel for pitching stands out along with his crossfire delivery, and easy repeatable mechanics.
27 Philadelphia Phillies Cade Arrmabide, C, Tomball HS (TX) Committed to LSU
Sleeper Aiden Harris, 3B/1B, PDG Academy Committed to UVA
Dave Dombrowski loves prep talent, the higher the ceiling the better. High speed, high power, traditionally athletic outfielders but anyone with power will be on the radar. There is also a history of big, hard-throwing prep arms, but this class is lacking in the prep arms. So instead Cade Arrmabide would make a ton of sense in terms of upside. He is a player with some of the best exit velocities in the class along with elite pop times and an extremely strong arm. If he can stick at catcher it's an upper-tier profile as a middle-of-the-lineup bat with size. He has played all over catcher, third, first, and outfield, but most have him listed as a catcher or first baseman. The power is the calling card and the roadblocks to catcher seem to lessen every year. In terms of the sleeper, it's hard to resist another Aiden third baseman even if it's spelled differently especially when he might have the best power potential of any prep player in this class when you consider his size and 110 MPH exit velocities.
28 Houston Astros Dakota Johnson, OF, Mississippi State
Sleeper Will Taylor, OF, Clemson
Last year was the first with Dana Brown at the helm, and the Astros did not take a prep player until the fifth round with Chase Jaworsky a prep shortstop. They did make him their third-highest-paid draft pick. They did go for players with big batted ball data, including strong exit velocities. It was a power-over-hit approach but the standout for me was the batted ball data on almost every player who elevated their profiles significantly compared to in years past. Johnson is exactly that type of player with his high-end exit velocity along with his plus speed. Swing and miss is a concern, but the speed and power combination is as good as any hitter in this class, and with a strong year where he cuts down on his strikeouts he could end up getting top 10 talk due to his physical skills. Will Taylor was a big name out of high school, on par with Bubba Chandler that year in terms of two-way talent. He got hurt at Clemson and was moved from quarterback to punt returner and wide receiver before giving up football to focus on baseball this year. He had a first-round grade out of high school and is a breakout candidate for this draft cycle. If the Diamondbacks want to go with a college player with more growth potential then Will Taylor stands out due to his years as a multisport athlete who is only now focusing on baseball.
29 Arizona Diamondbacks Anthony Silvia, SS, TCU
Sleeper Will Taylor, OF, Clemson
The Arizona Diamondbacks did not draft a high school player until the 20th round and they did not sign Dominic Voegle. The year before after Andruw Jones they went college heavy. This can be a shift that occurs when a team has shifted their timeline and is competing and not building anymore. Silvia represents a very interesting value here in the draft. The draft-eligible sophomore is a no-doubt shortstop with excellent ball-to-bat skills. Shortstops always rise on draft day and one who you know can stay there along with having a strong floor due to defense and contact skills is very likely to hear their name called in the top 20 picks. He is also fairly big for a shortstop so there is always the chance for him to grow into more power. Silvia is a player whose current strengths make him a very likely first-rounder.
30 Texas Rangers Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee
Sleeper Charlie Bates, SS, Palo Alto HS (CA) Committed to Stanford
I don’t think Drew Beam is happy about a teammate as good as Chase Burns leaving for another program, but one has to look at the bright side where he now gets a chance to prove himself as the Friday night starter every weekend. The Rangers have leaned a little more into pitchers outside of Wyatt Langford falling into their lap a year ago, and getting a player like Beam feels like a good value at the back of the first round. Beam came to a super talented squad at Tennessee which has featured several high selections and was still a day one starter. This said a lot about how much he was trusted and how well he performed with the pressure that was on him due to the talent around him. He was a reliable innings eater who saw his strikeout rate tick up along with his velocity as a sophomore. He has plus command and control which gives him one of the safer floors among the college arms. Pitching depth is a continuous need for contending teams adding a player like Beam who could be a quick-moving mid-rotation arm would have a lot of value at the end of the first round. Charlie Bates is a very well-thought-of shortstop, who if he can be talked out of his Stanford, or more likely bought out of, commitment is a player who teams will likely value more than the draft industry.
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