Ok, so two notes here at the top. The first is that this is all being done sans editor, being dyslexic this whole writing without a net has been kind of terrifying for me and is part of the reason my amount of writing has declined in general combined with it not being a job, podcasting, and starting a family. Still, I enjoy talking about the draft and continue to grind just for fun with it. So I will be posting my thoughts here. There will just be one evolving and changing board. I am writing up players as I get a chance to watch, read reports, and chat with people. I will post those down here and move players around as I see more, and write more so consider this a Big Board in pieces. Thank you to all who read and share every eye helps. If you would like to run any part of this on your site contact me as well.
1 Henry Davis, C, Louisville
I know this is very off-board as a top player, but when I was thinking who I would draft if I had the top pick Davis just kept coming to mind. He catches at a top program that has produced catchers, and he is catching high-end pitching already. His production is some of the best in all of baseball, and he has improved steadily behind the plate to go along with a cannon arm. There is nothing harder to find than a catcher whose offensive and defensive profiles are plus. When I also added in the likely cost to sign the top players (which should also be a factor in terms of rank as it will be to teams ) I kept coming back to Davis. Production, potential scarcity, and relative cost to sign made him the player I would grab at one. Plus the profile is legitimately the cleanest and safest of any player I see in the first tier of prospects.
2 Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) Committed USC
I feel like the word silky will be used with Mayer more than any descriptive term for any player in this class. If not silky the word would then be smooth. He is the top defensive shortstop among the high-end high school crowd and looks like a potential plus defender there. He is a bigger shortstop at 6’3”, but I am not as sold on his power potential compared to the other two high-end shortstops in this class. He projects as a plus offensive player as well though or he would not be top five on the board. The question is which NL West shortstop you think he favors Crawford or Seager. Those are the typical comps for this California kid. They might be lazy but they also show the divide in the community on Mayer. If you see Mayer then he might be the top player on a teams’ boards if you think Crawford he might be a little lower. I would split the difference, and let’s be honest even a Crawford outcome is a very good player at a premium position for a lot of years.
3 Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) Committed Vanderbilt
I have said it forever but shortstops are the quarterbacks of the MLB draft. They always rise, every team needs more of them and every team places a high value on the position. There are three shortstops from the high school ranks that should have a chance to go in the top ten. It is the best crop in a while and in this elite group the best of the best is Lawlar. He does everything well and has great tools across the board. I am not sure there is a standout elite tool for him, but every tool is a 55 or 60 across the board. He is a rather safe high school prospect, who has a defined future position. While there might be some minor griping about his birthday, the reason he will be 19 on draft day is that the draft was moved a month. Watson has more power potential and speed, Mayer I think is the better defender but Lawlar is the safest of the group and shows a bit of everything.
4 Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) Committed to NC State
Watson is the last of the three elite tiered prep shortstops and the first players in the second tier of talent overall in this class. Athletically, he beats Mayer and Lawler, and physically, he might be the most gifted player in this class. The bat speed and swing generate easy power even though he is just 5’9” and 179 pounds. There is no reason to just assume his size won’t and can’t mean power production down the road, especially if he lands with the right team. He is a fiery kid and will turn into a player who fans will love and other teams’ fans will hate. The athletic profile along with some of the best bat speed in the class makes him a player I am buying on. There is more risk with him than any of the players ahead of him, but there is the potential for a high-end reward too. I wish I had some more of the advanced numbers like his exit velocities and the like, as I feel it would confirm what I see which is a player with special tools, who I might be too low on right now.
5 Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
I understand why most places have Leiter number one overall. He has been brilliant, though I have to mention he has come down for the otherworldly performances that he had at the start of the year. His performance in the SEC while strong has not been quite as dominant. There will be concerns with his size, and if he has ace type of stuff. Leiter should be a quick-moving number two type for whoever drafts him. He has three pitches even if the change has not been used as much in college. He has a healthy profile and good mechanics. My bigger concern would be his control, which has shown improvement but is still at the higher end of walk rates I like to see from a pitcher I am putting as one of the top three talents in the draft. There is also the workload concern, which will likely come up more and more if he has another bad outing down the stretch. Leiter got a lot of hype early on for good reason, but I would not be surprised if he falls a bit late in the process.
6 Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
This might seem like a fall, and I am as guilty as anyone of pushing the hype train for Rocker. Yet after my two mocks this year, I got feedback that Rocker while still, a potential 1-1 was not the end-all-be-all for the top pick like many had talked about him like. He has a very high ceiling, with the build teams love and the pitches to be a legit one. The issue for him has continued to be consistency. His control gets dinged, but I think it is more the consistency than control that is his issue. He can look like the best pitcher in college baseball one week then struggle against a weaker lineup the next. He has a lower walk rate than Leiter this year but also has not missed as many bats (who has) with better stuff. He still could be the top pitcher in this class for a team that is looking just at his ceiling along with his production. He is also the victim of nitpicking at this point, which again I am likely as guilty as anyone of doing.
7 Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
I am a bit of a sucker for three-sport athletes, you will notice that as you read on. I tend to be a bigger sucker for former quarterbacks let alone a guy who was the Gatorade player of the year in his state at quarterback. I also think his hockey excellence is a big deal due to the body control and balance required to play hockey at a high level directly translates to hitting and fielding. The issue for many will be his size, which is listed at 5’9”. There are also questions about his position in the future as he has mostly played in the corners but would profile best at second or center. His production power-wise has jumped this year, but along with that his strikeout rate percentage has increased and his walk percentage has decreased. Both are strong, but it is clear he has changed his approach a bit this year looking for power. For me is a cold-weather player, who is a plus athlete, has shown steady improvement in college, and should be an above-average bat wherever he ends up.
8 Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) Committed Tennessee
It has been a bit of a roller coaster for House, who I think gets dinged for being famous for too long. He feels like he has been listed as a potential 1-1 in this class since he started high school. Any kid from during their high school years goes through a lot of change and the important thing for House is that he has gotten bigger, stronger, and better. There will be a lot of weight on his matchup against Dyan Lesko, a pitcher to know for next year. In this matchup, House excelled and has just continued to do so all spring. He has put his mediocre summer in the rearview mirror and so has most teams. I mentioned how Mayer gets the Seagar comp, well physically it is House who reminds me more of him. He is a solidify built, a current shortstop who is likely going to move to third. His power is amongst the best in the prep class and seeing him bat is impressive to watch. I would take him over any of the recent power-hitting third basemen among the high school hitters from the past few years. He is at seven after I debated back and forth with Frelick and again when all things are near equal there is more safety in the college player and House is also likely to command a larger bonus which also is part of the process for teams so it should matter for me as well. One last note it is also a bonus for House that he does not turn 18 until June, so despite his size and build he has often been younger than the top-end players he has faced. This matters to teams, so again it should matter to all.
9 Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser is having a fantastic year at Sam Houston State. I worry that I am taking too much value from those numbers by a small school performer. He was a name to know entering the year a top 20 talent on most boards, but the production this year has taken a step forward. He is walking nearly 18% of the time and has upped his home run total to 12 so far this year, after seven as a freshman and just one in a shortened season last year. The bigger question for Cowser has always been where will play. Will he work in centerfield and be an average defender or is he more likely destined to be a left-field only type. He doesn’t have the most exciting profile, and there is always more risk with small school players. Yet in a year where most college bats have taken a step back, he has continued to perform. He has a chance to be an up-the-middle player with an above-average bat and average glove, which is a profile that half of baseball could use right now. In my first writing, I had Hoglund here and everyone one spot down before his injury.
10 Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (OH)
I think of any arm in this class, Bachman is the one who could pitch in the majors this year. He hits triple digits with regularity with his fastball, and his slider is at least a plus pitch and one of the top in the class. The question is how much do you value him as a reliever, potentially a high-end one, and balance that out with the size, health, and small school concerns. Everyone will mention the missed starts early on, but that is exactly the time to miss. Even though he was likely facing better competition then the fact he has come back without issue and continued to excel has helped ease the injury concerns. Credit should be given to the coaching staff for the plan and approach with Bachman in his return from injury. There is a high reliever risk, and high risk in general for a college arm, but in terms of a two-pitch mix he is unmatched in this class. If he can start he could be excellent even if his change is meh. If he ends up moving to the pen he could be a multi-inning relief weapon or a potential opener. What I like to see is the large drop in walks per nine from his freshman year to his sophomore and junior year. It shows a player learning to harness high-end stuff, and also showing a player recognizing an issue and putting in the time and effort to get better as a pitcher.
11 Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hill HS (OK) Committed Ole Miss
Most places have moved Jobe up to the top 10 or so players, so I am lower on him than the field. This is weird as during the offseason I had him as the top prep arm in the class. I still have him as my top prep arm, but I am just more risk-averse when it comes to prep arms. I tend to be lower on them. It is a bit of a win that a prep arm that stands 6’2” can be considered the best high school pitcher in the class, just five years ago he would have been dinged over his height. The only real knock is that he is a high school pitcher, though there has been talk about the effort in his delivery. This is interesting as others talk about how clean his delivery is. Jobe made a lot of fans over the summer due to performance, and spin rates. He has done nothing to let up and has a stranglehold on the top prep pitcher rank. He is an excellent athlete who would have been a draftable shortstop if he didn’t pitch. He has shown four pitches that all-flash plus at times but the fastball and slider are the top two for him. He has all the things one looks for in a pitcher and is the top prep arm in terms of grades for me since 2017.
12 Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
This might be another example of being a little too bullish on a player I perceive to be safer as a college position player than say a high ceiling prep arm. McLain was a first-round pick by the D'Backs out of school but wanted to go to UCLA. He struggled as a freshman, showed signs of life as a sophomore, struggled out of the gate as a junior but started to turn the corner until a broken finger which was reported in early May and could end his season. If you believe the internet McLain was offered 2.6 out of high school the bonus for the 11th pick last year was a little over four million dollars so McLain might have bet on himself, had fun in college, and still ended up making more money. There are debates about his position, but most are settled on him at shortstop after some talk of center or left field. This only helps enhance his value in a class that is a bit devoid of college shortstops. There might not be another one taken in the first 50 picks. He walked more than he struck out this year, had excellent percentages in both areas while also showing growing power. He was on the cusp of a breakout, before his injury and could have worked his way into the upper tier of this class for me.
13 Harry Ford, C, North Cobb High School (GA) Committed Georgia Tech
Harry Ford is an odd prospect. He is one of the best athletes in the class, and also a catcher. I am all for putting top-end athletes behind the plate. It will only help with pop times, framing, and also hopefully the general wear and tear that mounts behind the plate. The issue often is that a player like Ford will see his bat advance much quicker than his defense, and this might ultimately cause him to shift from behind the plate. In terms of where he might shift, he could be outside of shortstop. I could see him going anywhere on the field. He has the arm for any position and the athleticism to handle it. When one is looking for a high ceiling, high outcomes high school player the things I look for are athletic traits, positional value, bat speed, and exit velocity. Ford has every single one of those traits. Catchers tend to be riskier, but the combo of athletic traits and bat speed make him one of the elite non-shortstop high school players in this class and the gap between him and House is much smaller than the gap between him and the next prep bat.
14 Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The name Shane Bieber will come up often with McGreevy as Bieber was the last UCSB arm to go in the top five rounds. Both pitchers showed excellent control with spotless walk rates in college. During their junior years, McGreevy’s velocity was better than Bieber’s was at the same point as well. Again a reminder Bieber was never a top 100 prospect and was very lightly ever ranked top five in the Indian system. The fact they showed similar control and came from the same school will make the unfair comparison occur. Bieber developed into a very different pitcher by the time he got to the majors. I talk about control a lot here, and McGreevy walked 10 batters this year in over 95 innings. He is also young for the class turning 21 in July making him younger than Will Bednar who is a grade below him. He has four usable pitches with his fastball and slider as the standouts. It is a rather safe profile in general, he has a mid-rotation ceiling with a strong chance to be no worse than a back-end starter
15 Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA) committed to Virginia
If one wanted to make the case that Montgomery should be higher than Robert Ford I could get behind it. Ford has a potentially greater value due to the possibility of catching. Yet in terms of physical tools, I don’t think there is any player in the class who can match Benny Montgomery, one of three potential Montgomeries who could go in round one. Benny Montgomery has shown elite exit-velocity at a young age, and that has shown to matter and project as players continue to grow. He is a plus-plus runner now, who some have rated even higher. As previously mentioned his exit velocity is among the best in the class along with elite bat speed. If one wanted to hang 70-grade power and speed on him I would understand it. So why is he 15 and not first in this class? His swing needs work, it’s flat and it’s not clean and it does not take advantage of his ability. Swings are notoriously tricky to change for any player. Yet we have seen more and more adapt to changes due to the emergency of launch angle data. Montgomery with some help could end up an MVP type of talent, but he could also never see the big leagues. There is a high amount of risk, but his high-end outcomes are as good as any hitter if not the best in the high school class.
16 Josh Baez, OF/RHP, Dexter Southfield HS (MA) Committed Vanderbilt
For the teams who love age models, Baez is the guy this year. He won’t turn 18 until the end of June. He is a big kid at 6’3”, and in terms of physical tools and raw power he is among the best in the high school class. Over at Perfect Game, his exit velocity is listed at 99.74% of all players tested. His lowest bat speed test came in at 97.7 percentile. He runs well, and as a pitcher as well he has a very strong outfield arm. The knock here is likely to come down to who he has faced, and the general history of Massachusetts prospects. There are also some swing and miss concerns, but in general, that could be hung on most prospects. When I look at a player with elite exit velocities and age-positive modeling I am going to be willing to gamble on development. Also when one of the biggest concerns is where they play and not about a skill or ability that also speaks to how good a prospect Baez is. I have a hard time seeing him get past the Cardinals.
17 Will Bednar, RHP, Miss State
Will Bednar might be the most unlikely of the potential first-round arms. He was not even supposed to be a starter for the Bulldogs this year and started the year working out of the pen. He is a draft-eligible sophomore who only appeared in four games in a shortened 2020. At the same time, he is a known prospect whose older brother David Bednar has pitched with the Padres and Pirates. This year has essentially been his first full season as a starter and he stepped in the SEC and was one of the best pitchers in the entire conference. His strikeout per nine is nearly 14 with a walk per nine under 2.5. His home run per nine is over one, but we are seeing that rate just tick on on most pitchers in general. He has a fastball/slider combo where both pitches flash plus. Some teams prefer that combo, and when you add in a curveball that looks like a workable third pitch it is easy to see why teams are warming more and more to Bednar.
18 Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Forks HS (SC) Committed Clemson
Will Taylor is a potential five-tool outfielder who is committed to Clemson to play football and baseball. As one would expect of a player committed to play wide receiver his best tool is his speed. He has an advanced approach at the plate and uses the entire field. The questions for many are can he hit and will he have power. Instead, I see a kid with a mature approach who has all-state in three sports and should grow into a more complete player when he can focus on baseball. He was recruited as a receiver but was a quarterback in high school who led his school to the state title. He is a multi-time state champion wrestler as well. The skill and focus it takes to be that good at those sports can now all be focused on baseball. I think his natural strength and bat speed will translate into power. Even if his power ends up average, the profile is a starter in centerfield with star potential.
19 Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Hoglund was a former competitive balance pick, which means he was a first-rounder just a few years ago. He arrived in the SEC and was given a starting gig at Ole Miss. He limited walks as a freshman but struggled to generate strikeouts. This has changed over this career. He was one of the strikeout leaders in the country before he had to miss a start due to bicep soreness. He returned from this injury a week later and pitched a one-hitter against South Carolina. In general, he has seen some dipping in his performance in the SEC as well. The regression of multiple college performers this year has opened the door for a player like Hoglund to step up. I would love to see more performances like the one he had against Auburn or South Carolina to solidify himself in the first tier of players, but right now I have him in that next group down. He was ninth on my list before his injury, but when it comes to arm injuries I have to move a player down. They are a bigger concern than they get treated and can have lasting effects and it will slow development.
20 Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee HS (GA) Committed Clemson
The first note on Chandler everywhere will be that he is also a quarterback recruit to Clemson. I get the why, it is pretty impressive. I have been very high over the years on quarterbacks turned baseball players in general. The logic is that they should excel in processing and athleticism, but the recent track record has not been as strong. Of course, the total amount of data is rather limited and in a lot of places the baseball player who is good enough to get drafted was also likely the top athlete at that school district in general. Chandler is a fantastic athlete in general who would have gotten attention as a fleet foot shortstop if it was not so clear that pitching is his future. He is up to 97, sits low to mid-90s, and has shown three secondary pitches. He is a work in progress but his athleticism and present ability should be enough to see him be one of the top three prep arms drafted in this class.
21 Max Muncy, SS/3B, Thousand Oaks HS (CA) Committed to Arkansas
If you go back to my way too early mock, I jokingly mocked him out to teams as the other Max Muncy. There is no relation, and they are very different players. I kept coming back and pushing Muncy up boards, and thought that this might even be low. He is a very twitchy athlete who also stands a solid 6’1”. He has some of the best exit velocity in this class, in terms of bat speed he is among the top five prep hitters as well. He has a very strong arm and could end up playing third if he bulks up. His bat speed should allow for plus power down the road. He isn’t the fastest runner, which is why I think he might end up moving to third long term. His power potential as a current and potential shortstop is what got my attention. Shortstops always rise during the draft, and the athleticism, power, and just general twitch along with the chance he could stick at short made him feel like a player who is underrated in this class.
22 Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (TX) Committed to Texas A&M
Pachecho continues the recent trend of the top power bat in the prep class, seeing their stock slide a bit during the spring. In recent years fellow third baseman Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker both ended up seeing their stocks slide even if they both ended up going in the teens. Pachecho is a shortstop now, who will likely move to third due to his limited athleticism. He is a solid defender now at short and should be a plus defender at third, he was also a pitcher so he has plenty of arm for third. His bat might be the best left-handed power bat in this class. There is some swing and miss, and he can get pull happy, but if things work out well there is a plus-plus power bat who will bring value both with his bat and glove to a team. There is a high risk for a platoon bat with his profile. There is always going to be a risk with swing and miss players. I think people are focusing a bit too much on that and not enough on the fact he does everything else above-average to plus outside of his speed.
23 Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama
Dyan Smith had 23 innings as a pitcher coming into this year. He was drafted by the Padres as a day three pick back in 2018, and a lot of what could have been said about him still stands now. He is a very athletic, fast-armed pitcher with a lot of projection left. The difference now is he has spent the last year being one of the better pitchers in the SEC, despite his overall rawness. He would be viewed as undersized as a right-hander, and there is a lot to clean up with his pitching and development in general. Yet he still has a strikeout per nine approaching 12 with a walk per nine under 2.5. His command is an issue and is part of the reason he has been home run prone in college. There is reliever risk, what arm doesn’t have reliever risk. Quick armed, plus athletes, with SEC production, and a clear path to more growth is rare. It should also be noted he won’t turn 21 until the very end of May, making him young for his class. When it comes to pitchers give me athletes all day long, it is one of the most underrated aspects for pitchers.
24 Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
I thought for sure I would have Wicks over Madden. Then again after looking at numbers, reports, and the like I think Madden might be safer than Wicks. The amount of hard contact off of Wicks was enough to cause a little separation between the players along with Madden having a chance for two plus pitches, even if Wicks likely has the single best pitch between the two of them. There are some reliever concerns for Madden but the fastball/slider combo has been very effective this year at Texas. I would like to see his walk rate a little lower and know there are some concerns about his control. Madden has the higher ceiling of the two, and the safer floor for me due to his upside as a relief weapon or opener even if he does not work out as a starter. Madden was a possible first-round pick out of high school three years later he seems a very likely first-rounder due to his production and his arm talent.
25 Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
Gavin Williams certainly helped himself during the college postseason, putting him on the radar of anyone who pays any attention to college baseball. Williams has been on the radar of most draft followers for a long time now. He was drafted out of high school back in 2017 as a hard-throwing high schooler. He struggled to find a spot as a freshman with ECU and got hurt in 2019. When you add in the Covid shortened 2020 season for Williams it meant he had just 68 innings and three starts over his first three years. He bet on himself and returned to ECU and it has paid off. He is a large pitcher at 6’6” with a fastball that has hit triple digits, but his evolving curve is what has moved him solidly into the first round and gives him two potential plus offerings. He is older, turning 22 in July, and is a bit further behind in terms of development than most 22-year-olds. There is a lot of room for growth, and I don’t mean that as some kind of joke on his size. He is developing, but his athleticism and limited innings mean there are more potential high-end outcomes for him as a pitcher than one typically sees at the end of round one. One also has to wonder if his age will push down the asking price a bit which might also make him a cheaper signing than say Bednar or Cusick if all three are on the board.
26 Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) Committed Florida
Painter is the prototype high school right-hander. He has the velocity and size that teams traditionally have looked for in the class. He was the top high school arm after the summer, due heavily to those specific traits. He is 6’6” touches the mid-90s, and it is easy to dream of more. He gets drafted in the top 30 picks due to his potential growth and ceiling. He showed four pitches and repeated his delivery well. He is a good athlete, which is important for a pitcher his size. Every report talks about his acumen on the mound and polish as a high school pitcher. So while it is the size and velocity that pops it is more his smarts, easy delivery, and athletic frame that make him the number three prep arm in this class for me.
27 Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
There is legitimate debate if Schwellenbach is a shortstop or a pitcher. He was previously drafted by the Indians out of high school, one could find my profile on him from then if you look. Schwellenbach due to his size was viewed more as a shortstop out of high school, and due to injuries he didn’t get a chance to pitch until this year. Yet pitch he did, and very well over 31 innings entirely as a reliever. If you view Schwellenbach as a pitcher and plan to draft him early the logic is that he barely pitched in college and is just showing what he can do. He has a starters mix with his fastball, slider, and change. His command and control are both above average to plus. I mentioned his size. He is 6’1” which is on the smaller size for a right hander, which combined with his zero starts in college make many think he is a reliever or a shortstop. There is no way to know how his stuff will hold up, or how he will hold up if given a chance to start. He is obviously a great athlete which does give him a better chance than most. As a shortstop he looks like a potential starter with plus on base skills. He walks at a high rate, has had great BABIPs and projects for average power. His arm means he could play anywhere for a team. If I drafted him I would send him out as a starter and still let him hit. If he doesn’t hold up as a starter then there is a chance for an elite reliever and an elite utility player. He could be worth three bWAR in the future in such a role. Baseball is changing and Schwellenbach is exactly the type of player who has the best chance at being a two-way player in this class. He also has multiple indicators of extra growth potential, which just make one think he is just getting started.
28 Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (CT), Committed to UConn
Frank Mozzicato might be a name that you have heard after he threw a series of no hitters this spring. If you go looking for his last name you will find a bakery where Frank and his older brother Athony grew up and is very famous in the area. His older brother pitches at Central Connecticut State, and it looked like Frank would go the college route as well until his breakout this spring. Mozzicato is another player who will appeal to model based projection. He is young for this class turning 18 in June. He is a cold weather arm, one that just started to show his potential. He was never much of a showcase arm so there is limited data on him, but teams made the trip and none left disappointed. His fastball/curve is one of the better combinations among the prep arms this year. His curve might be the best among the high school crop and its spin makes it just a deadly offering already. As long as he develops his change into a solid third pitch, he should be a good mid-rotation starter with a chance for more. The profile is clean, he is young, and he showed potential plus control and command of his pitches this year. I expect him to go in the top 40 picks.
29 Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
So the elephant in the room is Wake Forest has had a lot of higher picks the last few years, five in rounds one or two over the last five years. We have to see with Jared Shuster, but Gavin Sheets so far has been the best of the bunch. Wake as a stadium is a hitter's park, so I tend to put a bit more value on pitcher performance there as they have to overcome their home park. This also partially explains his higher home run rate for a top-end college arm. He is going to be a traditionalist's dream at 6’6” with a fastball that hits triple digits. His secondary pitches need work, right now he is a fastball and a dream. He is a cold-weather high school kid, who has steadily improved over his college years. If a team can develop pitching he would be an ideal type of arm to work with and mold. His best days are likely ahead, but I am a bit lower than most just due to the fact there could be reliever risk due to his secondary offerings are average at best.
30 Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
It has been a long, weird trip for Fabian. He was a universal top-five player to start the year and was widely considered the top college bat in the class. During the easy part of the schedule, Fabian struggled. He was hitting for power, but his strikeout percentages were enough to scare off most people I talked with. There was not a player who had cost themselves more money. Then he entered SEC play, the hardest conference by far, and all of a sudden he was the player people had been hoping to see all year. His strikeouts were down, but he continued to hit for power. Fabian had a mediocre freshman year and lost his sophomore year. A lot of his hype came from his performance on the Cape. Looking at how he has performed over the years one can’t help but wonder if he was pressing early on trying to show he was the top college player, and once he fell off if the pressure was gone. It is just so unusual to see a player's struggles end once they get to SEC play. The tools are there that got people interested, the swing and miss is a big concern and outside of injuries, nothing derails a career faster. If you were a fan before you are likely back on him, if you weren’t then you still aren’t.
31 Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
I mentioned above why I am slightly lower on Wicks. He has not been hit often, but there has been loud contact. Also, crafty lefty types tend to have a lower floor than a player with elite fastball spin and velocity. Here is a personal basis, of late I have wondered about the value of a plus change. I have seen too many recent college pitchers with the best changeup in the entire class struggle to translate to the majors. When you have a changeup at the level of Wicks it is easy to destroy college hitters. It becomes less easy as a player ascends, and the top changeups in baseball are all from guys who also have elite fastballs. The interplay between the pitches needs to be there for the changeup to be remotely effective. Wicks will look good in the lower minors, get ready for absurd numbers. I just have my own set of concerns when it comes to an arm like him.
32 Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Darn you baseball injuries. There was no arm that I wanted to see more this year than Hill. He pitched just 21.2 innings his first two years due to health and COVID. He pitched just 29.2 innings this year before Tommy John surgery ended his season. The promise for Hill was high enough to put him in the top pick discussion at the start of the year. He has an elite fastball/changeup pairing along with plus-plus athleticism. He could have gone to several schools and been a quarterback, and a baseball player if he wanted. He has the size, athleticism, velocity, and plus secondary offering that should make him a slam dunk top ten player. The very big issue is health, and due to health development being behind. If he had three fully healthy years his third pitcher would have had a chance to be something more than a below-average offering. There is high relief risk, just due to the amount of time missed. There is also a chance that if he gets healthy and stays that way, that a team in the 30s might end up with the best arm in the entire class. How comfortable a team feels with the medicals and just 51.1 total innings will ultimately decide where Hill goes. Keep an eye out for the Reds with multiple day one picks, and a very strong pitcher development side.
33 Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain HS (AZ) Committed to Arizona State
Wes Kath is yet another high school shortstop that projects to third base once drafted. He will turn 19 not long after the draft and would be draft eligible in two years. He is more hit over power, but there is a chance long term for plus hit and plus power. When one looks at his exit velocities and bat speeds they are all in the 90th percentile which is why I think his power is above average to plus down the road. He has the size and the bat speed to grow into his power. Kath’s hit tool will be what gets him drafted; it is the one current standout he has. If you are like me and think his power will come then he is a late first rounder. If you think his power will be average or below then is someone you let another team draft and pay.
34 Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State
Nelson is interesting as he is talked about as a potential late first-rounder, but in most places is listed as a second-round player. He was drafted out of high school back in 2018 and often gets mistaken as a senior due to his age. He turned 22 in January which means that he has always been on the extreme end of the age relative to class rankings. He has always been one of the oldest players at his level. He was a day one starter for Florida State, but not someone anyone mentioned until the year began. He put on a show this year with 23 home runs and 17 doubles. He also walked 13% of the time, the negative is he struck out 24% of the time. When it comes to Nelson the negatives are pretty much easy to spot. He is older, he has swing and miss issues, and his defensive home is still very much undecided. He will always likely be a below-average catcher and many think he will have to move off the position. If he does move off his value takes a rather large drop as his offensive profile is good but not great. So why is he higher on team boards than writers boards: money is likely the answer. I am sure the cost to sign will be lower than most of the college bats in this range. He has a chance to be a plus bat at a position that rarely has plus bats. I am trying to encapsulate bonus value into rankings as I think it has to be considered. Nelson was one of the top performers all year in college baseball. He looks like a future three-outcomes hitter, who could play catcher and whose bat may translate to first. Also in a world of robot umpires, Nelson’s potential to stick at catcher only increases.
35 Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami
Last year when I wrote about Austin Wells I talked about his value only increases in an era where robot umpires seem more and more likely. The idea is that the framing and similar skills will be devalued and make it so lesser defenders can find more success at the position. Castillo is not a strong defender as a catcher, so there has been a lot of debate over the years if he can stick behind the plate or will have to move to first. The issue with him even with a robot umpire is a weak arm will allow teams to victimize him in the run game. If he moves to first he has not shown the power that one typically likes at that position. He has 10 home runs over his college career as of writing. He was labeled the best hitter in the class but has regressed nearly across the board. Where does one take a player who has disappointed and doesn’t have a defined position? He entered the year right around the top 10 as all his indicator stats as a freshman looked great. I do feel like there is some pressing going on here, so there is a chance that some team might get a great value. I have him lower than Nelson even though he has a great chance to stick at catcher due to having less power, and also he likely costs more to sign.
36 Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State
I am content to be higher on Black than anyone else in this class. He has a lot of traits that remind me of Terrin Vavra of the Orioles who I was also significantly higher on than most. Both are cold weather infielders with high-level production who control the strike zone show and are young for their class. Black is a Canadian kid, who comes from one of the more underrated baseball factories Wright State. Before one calls me an Ohio homer go check out some of their recent selections the program is excellent. Black posted a slash line this year of .383/.496/.683 with 13 home runs and 39 walks to 25 strikeouts. He will not be 21 until the end of July. He even had a signature game hitting a double off Kumar Rocker. He has many of the indicators which I look for that show a player with more growth potential and just that highlight a future major league player. I might be over ranking him and it is a deep middle infield crop in the college group in general but Black stands out from the pack for me.
37 Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace HS (NJ) Committed UNC
Soloomteo has been on the radar all year, but due to the late start of the New Jersey season there just have not been as many chances for people to see him. He has been a hot name among the prep pitchers and is in the battle to be the number two prep arm in this class. The cold weather arm was strong over the summer but has been mid-90s this spring. He has a repeatable delivery and hits his spots in the zone. His curve is a real weapon right now and should only get better. There is always a risk with high school arms, but the state of New Jersey has not had a prep player make it to the majors since Rob Kaminsky, and Rick Porcello the last starter from the state. With apologies to Mike Trout, it has been an extra risk-taking playing from there over the last 30 years with a very low payout rate. I understand why he is a top 20 or 25 talent on most boards due to the delivery and top two pitches. For me, though I am always going to be the one letting someone else draft the prep arm in place of me early in the draft.
38 Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY) Committed Clemson
There is nothing riskier when it comes to the draft than a high school catcher. The focus is always on the risk of the prep arms, but catcher is a bigger risk. There are just a handful of catchers in all of baseball that can contribute both with their glove and with their bat. The general risk pushes down Mack, who looks like a potential starter at catcher though one without the highest ceiling that we often see with first-round catchers. His brother Charles was drafted by the Twins in 2018. Joe is a better prospect than his brother. Joe has good pop times and shows the skills to be a plus defender behind the plate. He has a good approach with a swing that is geared more for contact than power. He doesn’t project to be an elite defender or an elite hitter, but when it comes to catchers one needs just to be average at both to be one of the ten best in the league at the position. He is lower than the two college catchers due to the risk, and also due to having the lowest offensive ceiling of the group.
39 Alex Mooney, SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep Committed Duke
If Mooney gets drafted be prepared to immediately hear that he is the first high school shortstop drafted from the start of Michigan since Derek Jeter. He gets dinged for average tools, and his age having turned 19 at the start of July. I disagree with this assessment, as while he has a swing that is not geared for power Mooney generates big exit velocity numbers and has great bat speed. If he adjusted his approach I think he ends up with above-average power. At the same time if he keeps the approach I think he should still be a plus offensive player just due to his ability to quickly turn on pitches. He likely moves to third or second long term but there is a chance he could stick at short. He is a player when you get to perfect game relative to the close he is 95% percentile or better. I know that data does not get updated and is nearly a year old, but I still find it odd that it can be out there and people still label Mooney as an average or nonathlete. When draft mistakes happen sometimes it is due to not realizing that a player who is labeled a gamer or grinder is more than that due to the athletic profile. Mooney stands out as a player I am very curious to watch and see if I am right or if it is the consensus down the road.
40 Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Here is a senior that will likely go in the top 35 picks due to his combination of ability and signability. Mikulski isn’t just a senior sign, he also has a nasty fastball that is a legit weapon and not the type of pitch one often sees on a small school left-handed pitcher. He has the size to start, but will a team be patient or will they rush him as a reliever is the question. He put in the time and was hitting 98 and a slider that flashes plus. His delivery still has some effort to it, which will just increase the reliever talk. On the other hand here is a kid from Fordham who just saw his stuff jump this year. He might be older, but when I see a small school program that never produces talent producing a pitcher who is also a cold-weather arm. For me, I see a player with more growth potential than one typically thinks there is when the player is already 22 and viewed as a senior sign. More than likely he ends up a reliever but there is third starter potential and even as a reliever he would be a weapon out of the pen with his fastball and slider. Plus add-in that he is likely going to save a team that drafts him a lot of money. These all combine to make him one of the more attractive choices in the 30s if he is even there.
41 Connor Norby, 2B, East Carolina
I know there are people out there going of course he is high on Norby. All he did for ECU this past year was hit over .400 with 15 home runs, and a near one-to-one walk to strikeout ratio. He did it all for a smaller program, but one with a lot of history of pro players. He isn’t big, he isn’t flashy, he isn’t tooled up, but he has a very complete approach using the whole field and working counts. He is undersized but he should have average power production at second with plus on-base skills. When it comes down to Norby teams will either focus on what he has done or what he can’t do. I prefer to lock in on a player who puts up some of the best numbers in the country while showcasing an approach that easily translates to the big leagues. There is a risk with small school players but bet on those whose production is in the top one percent with an approach that is already strong.
42 Joe Rock, LHP, Ohio University
Ohio University is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. They do fine in the MAC but can go years between picks. Most people know Mike Schmidt was from Ohio University but naming a player after that can be difficult. Bob Brenly and Steve Swisher are the biggest names and Marc Krauss and Adam Russell are the only big leaguers since 2000. This is a long setup to say Rock was a bit of a surprise. The 6’6” lefty made a new for himself in fall ball, when word began to filter out he was hitting the mid-90s. He didn't pitch in 2020 because of academic issues, and his freshman was a mixed bag. This spring though he threw a no-hitter, which I believe was the first in school history, and was off to the races from there. His control looked greatly improved, and he was missing bats all year. When players did make contact it was rarely hard. Rock is from Aliquippa, Pennsylvania whose most famous baseball alumni is Tito Francano. Rock has worked hard to refine his mechanics and get better and better. He has come from places not normally checked for baseball talent and has made people take notice. He is very young for the class not turning 21 until the end of July. He is a cold-weather arm, who should have more room for development as he could add more muscle to his frame and when he is working with the type of coaching one gets at a professional level. He is a second-round pick in most places, but the indicators for growth are off the charts. If you are looking for a helium player in this class. A player who in five years people are going to ask how did he fall there in the draft? Rock would be my bet. He needs coaching and development, but if you trust your staff Rock will be a steal.
43 Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra HS (CA) Committed UCLA
Jump is a pitcher in the truest sense of the word. He has well-developed secondary offerings, excellent command and is one of the more advanced high school arms over the last few years. He didn’t turn 18 until April which is a plus in his favor for age models. The issue with him is twofold his height and in turn his fastball. Five years ago Jump would have been at UCLA no doubt. His height at 5’10” would have made him undraftable. He is likely maxed out physically and right now he has a low 90s fastball but he has some funk to it that has allowed him to excel while facing top competition. He is also an excellent athlete. There can be some effort in his delivery which is the bigger issue for me pun intended than his size. More than anything it just comes down to size. His size limits his outcomes and his potential roles. There will be those who still don’t view him as a draftable prospect. Then there is me sneaking him into the top 40. If he had four more inches I think he would be the top left-hander in this class and a top 20 pick. Still, he doesn’t have the ideal size, which is why he is more a back-end starter type. He has everything else though, which could make him a player to watch if he makes it to UCLA.
44 Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Ethan Wilson is a hard prospect to figure out. He set a freshman home run record at South Alabama with 17, since then he has a total of 11 home runs in 37 more plate appearances. While he didn’t sell out for power as a freshman, he has cut back his strikeout percentage from 17 to eight percent. His walk percentage has also been strong, and Wilson is a player who works a lot of counts and gets on base. The question becomes just how much that statistical production can transfer from the Sun Belt to the minors. He is a small school player, who profiles as a negative to an average defender. He is going to be a left fielder more than likely. Wilson’s power drop has likely moved him down, boards. Those teams who like contact-based hitters, and use models that favor those types still might draft him in the first round. There is not a lot of wiggle room in his profile, due to his lack of positional flexibility and a rather limited ceiling. Wilson is a bit lower for me than others.
45 Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge HS (IN) Committed to Indiana
Montgomery has been one of the bigger rising prospects this spring. He is one of the many Montgomeries in this class and one of the many prep shortstops in this class who is likely to move off the position. My biggest issue is his age. He turned 19 in February which makes him one of the oldest high school players in this class. Age-based models exist in baseball for a reason, while it does not mean a player can’t be successful when they are older it just makes it less likely. I was someone who missed Trevor Rogers recently due to this. Montgomery doesn’t have the flashiest tools, and the prep history from Indiana has not been great either. So with all of these negatives why is he here? He has plus bat speed and exit velocity which both show a player with plus power down the line. He should be someone who helps a team both with his bat and his glove. There is a potential middle-of-the-order bat here.
46 Trey Sweeney, 3B, Eastern Illinois
Sweeney is another player like Mat Nelson where he is rumored to go higher than he is listed on writers’ boards. Nelson, I preferred due to a chance at positional value and also his performance in the ACC which is the second-best baseball conference IMO. I could see some flipping them as Sweeney has a safer profile, an easier-to-find defensive home, and the gaudiest numbers in college baseball this year. His slash line was .382/.522/.712 with 46 walks to just 24 strikeouts. He performed well when facing Jordan Wicks early in the year, but by and large, did most of his value against the Ohio Valley Conference. The OVC typically gets one, maybe two players taken on day two and roughly about 10ish a year. It is not the best competition, to say the least. It makes it hard to judge the numbers and when you add in a swing with a lot of moving parts and below-average athleticism it makes it a profile that has more risk than one typically views in a college player with that level of performance. His eye at the plate and ability to square up on pitches will be what gets him drafted. He is another player likely to be cheaper to sign than the typical late first-rounder. I am often wrong on these types of hit first hit only prospects. Yet I just see more risk here than others, which is why he is down the board.
47 Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL) Committed Florida
Jay Allen is one of the best athletes in this class. He is a three sport athlete who might be able to play football and baseball at the college level. He is committed to Florida only for baseball, but if he went to a lesser program he could likely walk on for football. He is a player where I have had some people talk about his speed or others about his power. He is a pure lotto ticket with five tool potential. If everything works out with him he could be the best high school player in this class. The tools are rare which along with his size and lack of exposure give up so much room for growth. I think there will be a team that falls in love with his potential and takes him in the top 50 picks. There is a risk with Allen, but outside of Benny Montgomery, I am not sure there is a player who has a higher ceiling for me in this class.
48 Carson Williams, SS, Torrey Pines HS (CA) Committed to California
Here is another shortstop in this class, another California shortstop, and one I feel like I might be too low on. Williams is a legit two-way prospect, but his ability as a shortstop has made it so teams only view him as that going forward. He has excelled on the biggest stages. He is a long kid that might cause him to move off short but I think he sticks there. He doesn’t have a standout tool, but some scouts love him to death. There was one scout who told me he is a top 20 player in this entire class. He saw a 55 tool player, and by that I mean everything he did was 55 or better in this scouts eyes. I see a potential league-average defender at short who has better power potential than he gets credit for. Most call him a hit-first type of prospect and I just look at the size, skills, and growth as a player and think that he could end up going a lot higher than most expect.
49 Noah Miller, SS/2B, Ozaukee HS (WI) Committed Alabama
Once Noah is drafted he will be endless compared to his brother as the profile is extremely similar. They are both hit first, contact first prospects with good but not great athleticism who are mostly average tools across the board. Noah is a switch hitter so he does have his brother beat there, and I think he is a better athlete so there is a better chance he can stick at short. Someday I want to take the time to do a big study on siblings, but until then it has felt like me over the years and certainly in recent years that younger brothers end up being better than the older ones. I am not sure if it is due to having walked the path and passing on knowledge or what but when I think about the Manoahs, Groshans, and others it’s the little bro who makes the names. Noah looks like a better version of his brother. His brother has made it to the majors, a plus version of that is a top 50 pick even if the tools are close to average. I will also note average tools across the board will be a starter at any position in baseball that is not a bad thing. If anything it's a good thing for a team as the sexy high-end tools go early, the better deal is often on the complete talent.
50 Ky Bush, LHP, St. Mary’s
St. Mary’s has turned into a very good place for pitchers to go and develop. Corbin Burns might be the standout the program in a typical year has a handful of players get selected. They do a good job of pitching development in general, which is also partially why I am sure Bush ended up there. Bush was drafted in the 40th round out of high school but ended up instead attending Washington State. He ended up leaving after one year, went to a JUCO then moved on to St. Mary’s. Bush is a 6’6”, 240-pound left-handed pitcher. He sits mid-90s and has a slider that should be at least an average pitch. There is some reliever risk in his profile, and before he got to St. Mary’s there had been a lot of control and command issues for Bush. This past year he kept the ball in the park, limited walks, and missed bats. There is a chance to get a pitcher on the ascent here, as he seems to have figured things out. It can take longer for bigger pitchers to get their mechanics set, and repeatable. The question for me is will his curve turn into a third pitch, is what we saw in 2021 a sign of more growth potential or will he struggle against better competition. I think you have to try him as a starter because there is more room for growth than in the typical 21-year-old. If things don’t work out as a starter his fastball/slider combo should make him a potentially lethal heavy use pen arm. He has one of the sturdiest builds in the class, and to the right team, they will find a way to maximize the value that Bush presents.
51 Ryan Bliss, 2B, Auburn
Ryan Bliss is likely to be a polarizing player in this class. He was a former 30th round pick by the Red Sox, who started from the jump at Auburn playing second and short. He will likely move to second base as his arm is below average. The other issue for Bliss is he stands all of 5’9” inches, but despite this still hit 15 home runs this past year while playing in the SEC. He hit for a high average, and while he didn’t walk at a high rate, he didn’t strike out much either. He just made a lot of contact in general. His swing also has some moving parts that will put off some. Since he started as a freshman there is more data than with a lot of players in this class. His production and contact rates will make him a fit to more model based teams. Bliss could go in the top 30, especially in a potential under slot deal. He doesn’t have a single standout tool, but the production in the SEC is going to ensure he goes in the top 100 picks.
52 Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
I held off scouting and writing on Tommy Mace, as I just assumed he would not be the type of pitcher I am higher on. He was a potential draft pick out of high school who I thought the Reds might actually sign. He has the size, and velocity to make him the typical developmental arm. If one just looks at his ERA he has not dominated as one would expect of a pitcher with his size, stuff, and age. Mace was draft eligible a year ago and is basically a senior in this year’s class. One only has to look beyond the most basic numbers to see a pitcher who missed bats and didn’t walk hitters in the SEC. The issue for him was he was prone to the longball. Over the last few years I have noticed teams care less about players who have higher home run rates in general. More important is what he has shown which is four pitches and the ability to miss bats. I am not sure if he has a future plus offering but Mace is willing to do what it takes to improve. I love seeing a kid going to Driveline to work to improve. Mace is a good bet to be a workhorse back end type of starter. This is a good range for that along with his age also likely being something that drives his cost down a little.
BONUS
Niko Kavadas, 1B, Notre Dame
Niko Kavadas is not a top 51 player, but I wanted to talk about him as I think he will be a steal in this draft. Kavadas is unlikely to go on day one; he has a bad body, will turn 23 this year, and has no real position. I say look past that and understand the bat is going to play and those three factors will make him a lot cheaper than other players. I am willing to bet that he will be by far the top player in his bonus range. Notre Dame for years was a place of baseball malpractice. One could have made a career drafting players who stalled there and coaching them up afterwards there were many examples Cavan Biggio is the most famous. This is part of the reason they changed coaches before 2020. Kavadas dominated the Cape when he had the chance and this past year was a man among boys in the ACC. He walks a ton 23% of the time, he strikes out 25% of the time which is not bad for a player with his approach. He hit 21 home runs and has legit 65 maybe even 70 raw power. He is a DH, that is what he is, but he compares extremely favorably to say Brent Rooker from a few years ago. He is one of the best left handed power bats right now in this class. For a team needing an underslot deal he might be my first call in round two. Just draft him, put him in A ball and let him mash his way up the system.
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